There are 5 weeks of games left in the 2016 NFL Regular Season. The Cowboys kicked the week off on Thursday with a narrow and somewhat controversial win in Minnesota. With an 11-1 record the Cowboys clinched a playoff berth during the game. The race for the other playoff spots continues on Sunday.
Early Games
Kickoff – 1pm Eastern 6pm UK
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Team Markets
The Lions lead the NFC East with a 7-4 record. Detroit has trailed in every single game this season at some point in the 4th quarter. It is a testament to their team, especially QB Matt Stafford, that the Lions have a winning record. The Lions are stellar at home with a 5-1 record but struggle, like many teams on the road going 2-3 thus far. Detroit only have a +9 points differential which is a concern in this game. The Lions passing game tends to give up a lot of short and intermediate completions. Saints QB is probably the best QB in the NFL at working these areas = tough matchup for Detroit.
New Orleans have probably played better than their 5-6 record. They were unlucky in at least two games this season and could easily be 7-4 too. The Saints have a 3-3 record at home and 2-3 on the road. In terms of points differential New Orleans is actually better than Detroit at +27. The Saints offense is their strength led by QB Drew Brees and a resurgent running game. They lead the NFL in points scored (334) and points per game (30.3). The flip side is their defence concedes a lot of points (307) – 31st in the league.
Coming into Sundays game, Detroit is on a 3 game win streak whilst the Saints won in week 12. As shown above, Detroit doesn’t travel well and I don’t like the matchup of their pass defence against Drew Brees and his receiving core. Detroit could lose this game and still lead their division. New Orleans are in a must win situation. They are 2 games behind the Falcons in their division with Tampa a game in front. Atlanta have a tough game in Kansas City and Tampa are in San Diego – games they could very well both lose. If that happens a New Orleans win against Detroit puts them back in the thick of the division race.
The Saints, being the home team are favoured to win and have a -6 mark on the spread. The total points line has been set at 52. I’m going back and forth on which one of these I like. The Saints have balance on offense and I can see them getting to at least 28 points in the game. The Lions offense is more deliberate and slower paced but plays against the Saints woeful defence. If they scored 24 points or more I would not be surprised and that would get us over the total points mark.
Player Markets
At the time of writing this preview there is no line for Drew Brees player performance. I expect his line to be around the 295 range and I feel he will easily exceed this total. Instead of Brees I will back his favourite target – rookie WR Michael Thomas. Thomas is fast becoming the new Marques Colston (Brees long-time trusted top weapon). He is coming off a 9-108-2 touchdown game against the Rams. The Rams CBs are better than the Lions so the line of 70.5 looks well within reach.
Late Games
Kickoff 4pm Eastern – 9pm UK.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals
Team Markets
My second all-NFC match of the week takes place in the desert in Arizona. The host Cardinals have really disappointed this season. For many they were Super Bowl contenders but they have spluttered in every facet – offense, defence and special teams. Yes, they have been hit by injuries but so have a lot of teams. The passing game in particular has struggled outside of WR Larry Fitzgerald and RB David Johnson. QB Carson Palmer has at times been wretched – missing badly and throwing interceptions. Palmers stats are his worst since 2010. If not for RB David Johnson playing at an All-Pro level Arizona would be even worse. Amazingly, for their 4-6-1 record they have a +17 points differential.
Their opponents Washington have a similar points differential at +16 but they have the better record at 6-4-1. The Redskins currently occupy the second wildcard spot in the NFC playoff race. The division title is gone with Dallas at 11-1 but the Redskins recent play suggests they can hold their current spot in the playoff fight. Washington is powered by an offence that in the last 5 weeks has been insane. QB Kirk Cousins is playing his way to a massive new contract and he is currently 3rd in the NFL in passing yards and 4th in QB rating. Cousins is a master at using all of his targets in the passing game – WRs, TEs and RBs all get involved.
Arizona has a 3-2 record at home whilst Washington is 2-2-1 on the road with the tie coming in the NFL International Series game in London. The key match-ups in this game are:
- RB David Johnson vs Redskins suspect run defence;
- Washington passing game vs Cardinals secondary.
I can see Johnson having a huge game here. Washington is poor against the run and Johnson has WR like hands in the passing game. See the player markets below for more on Johnson.
Washington will be without TE Jordan Reed here but have a lot of weapons in WRs DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon plus TE Vernon Davis. The Cards counter will All-Pro DBs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu plus a solid S pairing. However, they can be beaten, as can all secondaries where there is a lack of pass-rush. Washington protect Cousins fairly well and I think this gives them the advantage in the game.
I like Washington at +2.5 on the spread. They will win a close game something like 24-20 so the +2.5 gives us an extra margin to bet with. I prefer this to the total points of 48.5, which is pushed I would bet the unders.
Player Markets
David Johnson has a rushing yardage line of 91.5 for this game. I think he will get 130-140 combined yards rushing/receiving but it could be a 100/30 or 60/90 split so I cannot take this line.
Instead I will look at the Washington receivers – Jamison Crowder (68.5 yards), DeSean Jackson (58.5 yards) and TE Vernon Davis (40.5 yards) are those available. Crowder will be covered a lot by Tyrann Mathieu and Jackson by Patrick Peterson so it is wise to look elsewhere. Davis is a massive target, way bigger than anyone in the Arizona secondary. In 5 of the last 6 games he has more than 50 yards receiving so he is my choice here. I think Crowder too could very week exceed his line but Davis is a safer pick.
Week 13 – Tips
Bet on the total points in the New Orleans v Detroit game to exceed 52.0 with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.95 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
Bet on Washington Redskins (+2.5) to beat the Arizona Cardinals with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.91 with SkyBet.
Back them here:
Bet on Michael Thomas to exceed 70.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Vernon Davis to exceed 40.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
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