Super Bowl LI is expected to be a high-scoring affair as the New England Patriots play the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night.
New England come into the game with the 3rd ranked offense in two key categories in the 2016 regular season. They had an average of 404.0 yards per game and 27.6 points per game. This is impressive but their opponents led the NFL in both of those categories with a stunning 457.8 yards and 33.8 points per game.
All of those yards = huge statistical seasons for a number of players on each team. Needless to say those players have been given high player lines for Super Bowl LI.
New England have two star players on offense in QB Tom Brady and injured TE Rob Gronkowski. The rest of the skill players are all solid players who do their job extremely well in executing the New England game plan. Brady is the master of using all of his weapons in the running and passing games – looking for mis-matches on every play. They run and pass the ball equally well. This is why they have had so much success.
In 2016 the Falcons emulated this and QB Matt Ryan had his best season. A power running game, excellent play-action and a plethora of diverse targets helped Ryan have an MVP type season. He too, like Brady, looked for mis-matches and boy do the Falcons have some explosive receivers! One week WR Julio Jones would star, the next WR Taylor Gabriel, then RB Devonta Freeman as both a runner and pass catcher. This is why they were able to win so many games.
Player Markets to avoid
Generally, with a Super Bowl the star player – the QBs in particular are given high lines. This is true for Super Bowl LI as Tom Brady has a yardage line in the 305-309 range and Matt Ryan in the 316-321 range. These are close to their per game averages from the regular season and I can see why the bookmakers have set them. I think both Brady and Ryan will be close to those lines come the end of the game. I don’t envision a New England blowout (as some do) and feel both will get around 300 yards by spreading the ball around. One caught or dropped pass might mean they reach or just fail to hit the overs. Not for me.
The same is true of the WR’s Julio Jones and Julian Edelman. Jones, in my eyes is the number one WR in the NFL. He would have easily won the yardage crown if not for a late season turf toe injury. Here I think the Patriot’s will roll coverage towards him so his receiving line of 100-103 yards looks tough. Then again, he is the master of getting open deep and one 40+ yard catch means the line is very doable. Edelman’s line is in the 92-95 yard range. He tends to catch more short passes than Jones and builds his yards by accumulating rather than big chunk plays. If he gets 7 catches I think he exceeds 100 yards but 7 catches on the biggest stage might be asking a lot.
Atlanta is not great against the run so you could look at the Patriots RB’s. The 3 NE backs are LaGarette Blount, Dion Lewis and James White. Their rushing lines have been set at 57.5, 40.5 and 12.5 respectively. To me that is the problem – there are three of them who will share the carries. There is no certainty with any of them. If pushed I would say over, under and under but I think all 3 would be close. Atlanta counter with a two headed RB unit with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Their rushing lines are 56.5-57.5 and 39.5-42.5. Each could comfortably acheive the overs. But there is some sentiment that New England will try to take away the Atlanta running game forcing Matt Ryan to beat them. I’m not comfortable with them either as runners. I do like both groups as receivers – see below!
Player Markets I like
The Super Bowl often turns up surprises. Players that are backups or third stringers often play a key role and can even win game MVP e.g. Cowboys CB Larry Brown. I think the value in player markets is in these type of players.
As mentioned above each offense is diverse and will use multiple players to get first downs. For New England I like the looks of:
RB James White as a receiver. White had more work as a receiver than runner in the regular season. He catches the ball naturally and is a threat on screens. His yardage line of 26.5 yards and 2.5 catches both look easily attainable. They are both below his per game averages in the second half of the 2016 season.
WR Chris Hogan has had a big post-season with big plays. His lines for Super Bowl LI are 58.5-60.5 yards and 4.5 catches. Again, I like both but like the odds of the +4.5 catches at 2.00 more than the 1.83 for overs on the yardage line.
For Atlanta I like:
TE Austin Hooper only makes the odd play each game but he was seeing more action as the season progressed. He has a yards line of 15.5 here which he could make with a single catch! With New England rolling coverage at Julio Jones, the underneath will be open. I like Hooper to exceed this line.
RB Devonta Freeman has receiving lines of 3.5 catches and 35.5 yards . In the final week of the regular season and the two Falcons playoff games so far Freeman went for 5-81, 4-80 and 4-42. I feel confident he will get overs on the both but the yardage line has better odds.
The Super Bowl has lines for just about everything. This includes lines for defensive players too. Most defenders have tackles + assists line for Sundays game.
A like a couple of lines for the Patriots – CB Malcolm Butler (over 4 tackles & assists) and DE/OLB Rob Ninkovich (over 2.5 tackles & assists) both at 1.83. I feel both have a strong chance of coming in but I’m sticking with the players highlighted above for my tips.
Super Bowl LI – Player Market Tips
WON – Bet on James White to go over 26.5 yards receiving for a 3.0/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet.
WON – Back Austin Hooper to exceed 15.5 receiving yards with a 2.5/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet.
Bet on both here:
WON – Back Devonta Freeman to go over 33.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Chris Hogan to go over 4.5 catches for a 3.0/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power.
Back both here:
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