Week 1 Sunday DFS Fantasy Breakdown
The first NFL Sunday of the season is upon us and to celebrate it our fantasy sports partners DraftKings have an amazing game covering Sunday’s matches. There is a $5m prize pool where the winners will trouser a cool $1m and better still it is going to cost just $3 per team! Fantastic value or what!?
With such a prize on offer we are certainly getting stuck in and we recommend that you do too. Here is our guide to who to pick and who not to pick in Sunday’s matches. Everyone knows about Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson and the likes so we’ll leave you to pick them if you like. We’ll seek out the hidden value.
Quarterbacks
PICK – Derek Carr (Oakland) $7,300
The Oakland passer has a fantastic match up on Sunday when his side head to the Dome to face a wretched Saints defence. Nobody ranked worse than the Saints in touchdowns allowed last season and in fantasy terms the New Orleans outfit allowed on average the worst number of points in the league. Nothing has changed in Who Dat country whereas Carr is a year more experienced. His numbers should be significant.
PICK – Tyrod Taylor (Buffalo) $6,900
We’ll play the ‘motivated against his old club’ card here. Tyrod Taylor makes a return to the franchise he served earlier in his career and he’ll know all about how this defence plays, where their strengths are and where their weaknesses belong. He is competent passing the ball and is a good runner too so for a cheap option sit back and watch Tyrod do his thing.
AVOID – Jay Cutler (Chicago) $6,300
He might be cheap but don’t do it! This Houston defence is going to be real again and withstanding the pass rush pressure they bring is going to take a lot of effort. Expect the ball to be taken out of the quarterback’s hands regularly with the likes of Jeremy Langford getting plenty of touches.
Running Backs
PICK – Doug Martin (Tampa Bay) $6,200
Tampa Bay are a side on the up and they can move the ball on the ground against this Atlanta defence which in truth has been weakening against the run for a while. Martin has four touchdowns in five matches against his divisional rivals and crossing the end zone in this match certainly can’t be ruled out. We’re happy with him this week.
PICK – Ryan Mathews (Philadelphia) $5,700
Who doesn’t want a player going up against the Cleveland Browns!? Well if you are taking anyone then Mathews could well be the man. He will be starting with a rookie quarterback against a side strong in the backfield so Mathews should get plenty of touches both in the rushing game and the check down passes and as such we should get lots of yards out of him.
PICK – Spencer Ware (Kansas City) $4,400
Jamaal Charles is a doubt with a knee injury so the Chiefs may well need to turn to the number two to pound out their yardage on the floor. He faces a San Diego defence who are largely poor against the run and goes into the match off the back of a solid preseason where he reached the end zone three times and averaged 3.5ypc. He is another who should get a decent workload and is very cheap.
PICK – Christine Michael (Seattle) $3,700
According to Pete Carroll (and who doesn’t believe Pete right!?) Thomas Rawls will be eased back into action so that leaves Christine Michael as the number one running back against a Miami defence who stunk the place out against the run last season so what is there not to like? Certainly not his price. That is fantastic and while we might have to put up with Russell Wilson keeping the ball we can live with that at this price with Michael still likely to get a sustained workout especially as Seattle pull away in the game.
AVOID – Arian Foster (Miami) $5,800
Arian Foster has left Houston for Miami and will want to impress but let’s not forget he comes into this season off the back of sustained knee problems and he is past the 30 mark in terms of age – both signs that a running back will be on a down trend. Add to that the Seahawks are watertight against the run and we don’t need Foster this week.
AVOID – Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati) $4,600
We’re not fans of taking backs who have to share workloads at the best of time but against the Jets – ultra strong against the run for like ever? No thanks. Bad match up and in truth a bad price with Giovani Bernard as an option too.
Wide Receivers
PICK – Keenan Allen (San Diego) $8,000
San Diego are going to have to throw the ball a lot in this match and Philip Rivers’ main man is worth a pick this week. Having missed the second half of last season he will have a point to prove this week and with him taking back the number one duties we expect a decent return on our investment here.
PICK – Golden Tate (Detroit) $7,300
We’re expecting a decent season from Golden Tate as he is given the role of filling Megatron’s boots and that should get off to a good start in Indianapolis who aren’t known for being the best against the pass. Receivers went well against the Colts last season so it makes sense to fill our team with the number one man at the Lions.
PICK – Amari Cooper (Oakland) $7,200
We’ve told you to take Derek Carr at quarterback so we’re telling you to pick his go to man as well. Cooper is a physical beast against a pretty woeful defence. This should equal yardage and plenty of it and a touchdown can’t be ruled out at any stage either.
PICK – Sammy Watkins (Buffalo) $6,900
If we have put up the Buffalo quarterback it makes sense to do the same with their best wide receiver right? Baltimore aren’t great in coverage and Watkins is an explosive wideout who may not be caught if he can be found in space. He is cheap enough to fit into a side somewhere.
PICK – Corey Coleman (Cleveland) $5,100
Admittedly it wasn’t the best of preseasons for the rookie but Philadelphia’s defence give yardage to just about everybody and although RG3 has his critics he is capable of feasting on a toothless defence. Coleman might not have the most explosive game in the world but passes he does catch could produce significant points.
AVOID – Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) $6,700
It is great to have #87 back in a Green Bay shirt but he might need a week or two back in the hustle and bustle of the National Football League before he finds his feet and Jacksonville have the corners to keep him sweet. There will be weeks to take Nelson but this might not be one of them.
AVOID – Julian Edelman (New England) $6,100
Not the best of matchups for Edelman even with Brady under center but the fact he is out suspended makes him a no go to man. Not only are Arizona generally solid in the back field but the wide receiver has been masked by injuries recently. With an untested Jimmy Garoppolo starting at quarterback in prime time there is too much to go against Edelman.
AVOID – Steve Smith Sr (Baltimore) $4,900
Aging wide receiver who is having to overcome injuries from the back end of last season. Still likely to be the main man in Baltimore but he has to be on the downgrade. While Buffalo give up yards through the air they do have one good cover corner and he is likely to have Smith Sr all to himself. That could restrict his point scoring.
Tight Ends
PICK – Zach Ertz (Philadelphia) $4,300
Once again we want someone going up against the Browns right? Ertz looks a good play here. Let’s not forget Joe Haden will be patrolling one of the corners and shutting down one of the wide receivers so we’re expecting Ertz to see plenty of passes especially with the rookie quarterback wanting to stay safe in his first competitive start. He looks an obvious pick.
PICK – Jason Witten (Dallas) $4,100
We probably won’t be recommending Jason Witten too often this season but he loves facing the Giants. He has seven touchdowns against them in his last six meetings and with a rookie quarterback likely to be in action for the Cowboys he is a safe option to go to. He could deliver the goods nicely this week.
AVOID – Antonio Gates (San Diego) $4,200
We know Philip Rivers loves his Tight End and that is fine but his tight end doesn’t love playing against the Chiefs. While he goes crazy on some sides in the league you’ll only find one TD by his name in his last nine matches against the Chiefs and his yardage output isn’t a lot better. This isn’t the week to be with Antonio.
Defence
PICK – Eagles $3,300
Pretty easy pick this one not just because they are playing the largely toothless Cleveland Browns but also they are up against RG3 who is a turnover machine at the best of times. Eagles have enough playmakers on defence to get the job done and then there is always the off chance that they return a kick back to the house with Sproles who is a master of doing that.
PICK – Texans $3,200
Jay Cutler has been getting sacked regularly for far too long now and the pass rushers Houston will be loading at him is scary to anyone let alone a man who is hit as often as he. With no Matt Forte to hand the ball off to this could be a long night for Cutler and the Bears but a very good one for the Texans and their defence in particular.
AVOID – Cowboys $2,500
You can never call the Dallas defence reliable but it might be more vulnerable than usual this week where they go up against an Eli Manning who often performs well against them. Manning has a number of solid options to go to this year so it will be tough for the Cowboys to get to him with their weak pass rush which has been hit by injuries and suspensions. Avoid them this week.
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