Week 12 of the NFL season sees the regular schedule of 3 games on Thanksgiving. The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions play in the early game in a crunch NFC Central divisional game.
Kickoff – 12.30pm Eatern – 5.30pm UK
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Team Markets
Both teams sit at the top of the NFC Central division with 6-4 records. The Lions hold the tie-break because they beat the Vikings 22-16 in Minnesota in week 9. Their records in the last 5 games are completely opposite. The Vikings are 1-4 whilst the Lions have won 4 of the 5 games. Minnesota did win against the Cardinals last week so they have some confidence coming into Detroit. The Lions have won two consecutive games.
The first meeting in week 9 gives us a marker for what will likely occur here. That game was tied at 16-16 at the end of regulation and won on an extraordinary catch by Lions WR Golden Tate. Aside from one Theo Riddick run, neither team was able to get thier running attack functioning in that game. Both teams passing games were restricted to the short and intermediate game too – with the longest completion going for 32 yards to a RB. In that game both defences were able to control the other teams offence.
I think this meeting will be similar. Neither team has a ‘home-run’ hitter on offence, or at least not one that plays regularly. Vikings WR Cordarelle Patterson has explosive speed but struggles to get open. Both offences are of the efficient type favouring long drives and converting third downs. Of the two the Lions offence is better with QB Matt Stafford in charge. He is having an incredible season and since the start of 2015 has the most come from behind 4th quarter wins in the NFL (9). Stafford spreads the ball around to take advantage of mis-matches.
The Vikings counter with an excellent defence – especially the secondary. Last week Minnesota got two huge plays that essentially beat Arizona. One was a 104 yard kickoff return by the aforementioned Patterson. The other was a 100 yard interception return by CB Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes had another interception in that game and the Vikings pass-rush hammered Cardinals QB Carson Palmer all game. Look for Stafford to use his TE Eric Ebron and RBs in the passing game here and keep the ball away from Rhodes.
The Vikings offence struggles running the ball. Not surprising given the injuries to key players in their rushing attack. Their passing game goes to WR Stefon Diggs – 13 catches for 80 yards in their first matchup and TE Kyle Rudolph. In the week 9 clash the Lions allowed lots of short completions but nothing deep. That enable them to restrict the Vikings scoring chances and keep the game close.
In terms of betting the Lions are favoured to win. I think that is fair given their recent record, the week 9 win over the Vikings and the fact they have the better QB. The line is set at 2.5 and I’m moderately tempted by the Lions.
The total points line has been set at 41.5 (this has come down from 43). This looks appealing seeing as they had 38 in the previous clash and that needed OT to get above 32. Three of the previous 5 games involving the Lions had less than 42 points. The same is true for the Vikings and it would have been 4 if not for the 14 points they scored on returns in week 11.
I have two concerns for the unders. Both teams are coming into this game off a short week. They both played last Sunday. The game is kicking off earlier than Sunday games. There might be issues of tiredness that could affect execution in the game. Saying that, this game is for the outright division lead. They will both be very focused to win and I foresee a low scoring affair.
Seeing as I think this will be a low scoring game I am interested in the total field goals market. The line for the game has been set at 3.5. In the week 9 meeting there were 4 field goals converted from 5 attempts. I think the Vikings defence will stop the Lions offence on a number of occasions in the Vikings half on Thursday. That means a number of FG attempts and I’m on the overs.
Player Markets
The player markets for this game are not available at the time this article is ready to publish. I am confident this one will be low scoring so I would be looking at unders for a lot of markets and that carries some risk.
If the bookmakers have total catch lines in the range of 5 for Lions WR Golden Tate or Vikings WR Stefon Diggs – I would recommend you take the overs.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions – Tips
WON – Back under 41.5 points in the game for a 2.5/10 stake at 1.92 with 188Bet.
Bet here:
WON – Back over 3.5 total Field Goals in the game for a 3.0/10 stake at 2.20 with Ladbrokes.
Bet here:
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