We’ve made it to week 5 of the NFL season and as well as our usual range of betting previews we are tackling the world of fantasy football once again especially with the lure of a $1,000,000 first prize on show with our official fantasy partners DraftKings.
In order to have a chance we need to put together a few lines which will hopefully score big and challenge for the big bounties. Here are the players we’re picking and avoiding this week. As ever players come just from the Sunday games not the Monday one.
Quarterbacks
PICK – Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) $7,200
Big Ben at home is always a must pick play but especially against the Jets who have allowed some deep balls to be caught this season already. Roethlisberger has a wealth of talent to throw to and all bases are covered. We expect another huge game from the big fella.
PICK – Philip Rivers (San Diego) $6,900
Should be a no brainer pick this one. Oakland have struggled against quarterbacks all season so far and we don’t expect that to change now. Historically Rivers goes well against the Raiders and with the Raiders surrendering the third most points per game to QBs this year Rivers should run riot again.
PICK – Derek Carr (Oakland) $6,800
He’s been a popular pick for us this season and he has been delivering good points throughout the campaign so we’re happy to include him again. He should be giving the ball even more air this week with Latavius Murray now confirmed as being out from the back field. There should be plenty of gears for this Carr to exploit.
AVOID – Matt Ryan (Atlanta) $7,100
Matty Ice and Julio Jones combined for like a gazillion yards last week but that was then and this is now and we don’t see a repeat against this elite Broncos defence. Ryan might well manage to find some of his lesser receivers put he is going to be under constant pressure throughout and that is enough for us to steer clear this week.
AVOID – Tyrod Taylor (Buffalo) $5,200
Quarterbacks rarely get much joy from a Rams defence and I’m not so sure Taylor is going to be one who does. He is missing his gun receiver in Sammy Watkins and that is showing in the numbers. I don’t see it changing here so even at a cheap enough price leave Taylor out this week.
Running Backs
PICK – CJ Anderson (Denver) $6,900
This is a fairly simple pick now that it appears that Trevor Siemian is out with injury. Atlanta struggle against running backs in fantasy purposes and is that going to change with the amount of times Anderson is going to get hold of the ball? We don’t think so. Whether it is on the ground or short range passes Anderson should see lots of the ball and that means lots of points for us.
PICK – LeGarrette Blount (New England) $5,600
Tom Brady might be back but that doesn’t mean that the Patriots aren’t going to run the ball and running against the Cleveland Browns is never a bad idea. Blount is one of the leading rushers going into the week and in theory he’ll be able to rush out the final quarter to seal a victory. At this price we want him in.
PICK – Jordan Howard (Chicago) $5,200
This is a great value pick on a running back who is getting more and more time on the field and who will be going up against a Colts defence that has struggled to contain running backs throughout the season so far. I get the feeling Hoyer doesn’t trust the deep ball as much as John Fox would like so the dump off to Howard is always in play. I’m expecting a decent upside for a low cost here.
PICK – Jalen Richard (Oakland) $3,300
With Latavius Murray now confirmed as out the undrafted rookie is expected to see more of the action here and this is a game I think the Raiders running game can work in. If they have their noses in front in the fourth quarter he is another who could run the game out but he’ll be active most of the day which is pretty much all we want from someone this cheap.
AVOID – Matt Jones (Washington) $4,500
The Redskins running back is starting to make a name for himself but that could come to a halt against this tough as teak Ravens defence that has been stingy as they come in recent weeks especially to running backs. If Washington are to get this done it will have to be in the air as Baltimore aren’t forthcoming when it comes to running backs scoring well.
AVOID – Tevin Coleman (Atlanta) $4,100
We could have picked any New York Giants or Philadelphia running back in this position but with an injury doubt over Coleman anyway and him being up against a Denver defence that doesn’t let much through it makes more sense to flag this one up especially as we’ve been picking him in earlier weeks this season. There are better value picks around than he this week.
Wide Receivers
PICK – Michael Crabtree (Oakland) $6,900
Is the former San Francisco wideout now the main man in David Carr’s offense? If he isn’t he is certainly going close. He is the one Carr has looked at the most in the red zone this season and against a San Diego side who leak yards by the bucket load we’re expecting more points to come Crabtree’s way.
PICK – Julian Edelman (New England) $6,700
Just in case you’ve been in a bunker somewhere and haven’t heard – Tom Brady is back this week (yeah we were surprised too…..) and it makes sense he’ll be straight on to loading up his favourite receiver as often as possible. It gets better. The two can combine against the Cleveland Browns. Brady. Edelman. The CLEVELAND BROWNS!! Sit back and let the carnage begin.
PICK – Sterling Shepard (New York Giants) $5,500
Odell Beckham Jr and Victor Cruz are the more established names in this Giants passing game but Shepard is beginning to forge a big name for himself and that can continue against Green Bay’s depleted and bashed up back field. Stefon Diggs blasted this Packers defence apart a couple of weeks ago and Shepard could well do the same at a very cheap price for the potential upturn.
PICK – Steve Smith Sr (Baltimore) $5,300
The veteran has been getting plenty of targets in recent weeks and if Josh Norman covers Mike Wallace then Smith Sr could have an absolute field day here. He has been targeted 22 times in the last two weeks alone and that workload is enough to attract us on him at what is a cheap price given the amount of ball he could see.
PICK – Sammie Coates (Pittsburgh) $3,600
Coates looks a great flex option this week with Roethlisberger likely to pass all over the Jets. He was targeted the most last week and with Antonio Brown likely to be on Revis Island it could be that Big Ben needs someone else to focus on. Coates is the ideal man and a few yards and a touchdown would be a nice reward for us at a cheap as chips price.
AVOID – DeAndre Hopkins (Houston) $7,700
We like DeAndre Hopkins but Brock Osweiler hasn’t set the world alight in Texans uniforms yet and this Minnesota defence is as real as they come in the league this season. He might make a few plays given how good he is but the ceiling isn’t as high as we would like for such a large chunk of our budget.
AVOID – Terrelle Pryor Sr (Cleveland) $5,800
Bill Belichick is in town and we all know he plays to take the opponent’s main man out of the game. Pryor Sr has become that man in recent weeks so we’re the one we expect the wily Patriots coach to target here. If that is the case and he is limited he is too expensive to consider.
Tight Ends
PICK – Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota) $3,600
While this might not be the best match up for Rudolph there probably isn’t a bad time to pick him right now. Sam Bradford loves his tight end and he has been targeted on plenty of occasions all over the field but especially in the red zone. That is likely to continue here.
PICK – Zach Ertz (Philadelphia) $3,500
The obvious tight end pick. The Detroit defence would probably struggle to tell you what a tight end is let alone have the ability to mark one. Zach Ertz is back now and has one of the best quarterbacks in the league aiming for him. That should be a fruitful partnership on Sunday.
AVOID – Dennis Pitta (Baltimore) $4,100
Joe Flacco has gone away from his main tight end in recent weeks with Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Sr the centre of his attention and that restricts us when it comes to potential ceilings at this price. Add in that Washington have managed well against tight ends and you’ll soon appreciate there are better picks around.
Defence
PICK – Pittsburgh Steelers $3,500
Another pretty obvious pick but obvious picks often deliver points and this is the sort of category where the points differential isn’t that high so we can take a team who will be a popular pick to stay in touch with the field. Ryan Fitzpatrick is throwing picks like they are on ration at the minute and if that continues this week the points will flow for the Steelers D who love returning passes to the end zone.
PICK – Minnesota Vikings $3,400
As I’ve said above I think this Vikings D is for real. Any defence that holds Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton to a combined 24pts gets our attention. Here they take on a Brock Osweiler yet to set the world alight in Houston and who could be exposed for long periods to this powerful and aggressive defence.
AVOID – Green Bay Packers $3,200
Green Bay have been going well up front but injuries are really hurting this defence and Eli has the tools and the receivers to jump all over that. The Packers might get to Eli a couple of times but they could be eradicated by the points the Giants could put up on them. There are better value options than the Packers.
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