After 100 years away, golf returns to the Olympic Games on Thursday when 60 men from 34 countries compete in the first Olympic Golf tournament in the modern era. Usually millions of dollars and dozens of ranking points are up for grabs with the stars of golf take to the course. This week it is all about three precious pieces of metal – a gold, a silver and a bronze medal.
The Course
The Rio Olympics Golf Course is the venue for this tournament and quite an iconic course it threatens to be. There are no trees on the course and there is no rough either. Instead there are plenty of bunkers and a native area made out of the former quarry on which the course has been built.
The course is a par 71 which measures just 7,128 yards. It is a coastal course so the wind is going to have a major impact on the tournament much like a links course. In fact the designer Gil Hanse has mentioned the similarities between this course and Castle Stuart, the course used for this year’s Scottish Open, in design if not land it was built on.
Although the course is a par 71 it has a full allocation of par 5s which means there are five par 3s so scoring on those could be crucial. Without any rough I think this is a course for the longer hitters and I’m expecting some pretty low scoring it must be said.
The Format
This is a straight forward strokeplay singles tournament much like a WGC event. There is no cut and if there is a tie for any of the medals there will be a three hole playoff to determine who wins the respective medals.
The Field
The lead up to this tournament was clouded by controversial withdrawals and as such none of the big four in the game are here but that hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm too much and there are still some decent players in the field.
The Masters champion Danny Willett is here representing Team GB along with Justin Rose while America have Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson and Patrick Reed representing them. We also have The Open champion Henrik Stenson in the field and a host of other household names.
Market Leaders
Henrik Stenson goes off as the 11/2 favourite. Clearly if he arrives in the form of the Sunday at Troon he could lead these a merry dance but he looked jaded towards the end of the USPGA and it might be that the busy period has caught up with him.
Sergio Garcia is no bigger than 9/1 to claim gold and while there are plenty of big names missing you would have to say that is a pretty short price on a man who has putting issues at the best of times. He’ll go well in the wind but in a low scoring tournament he can’t be for me.
Justin Rose is 12/1 to land gold. Those backing him will know he is desperate to win and having someone who wants to be here is very much a way of separating the field but I just think he’s become too robotic in his swing and outlook and it hasn’t had a positive impact on his form. He’s not for me either.
The American trio are all 16/1 and that is Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson and Patrick Reed. If I was taking any of these it would be Bubba but his price isn’t quite enough to tempt me in. It is 18/1 bar those named.
Betting
I’m going with four picks this week and apart from one they all fit the same profile. They smack it miles, score low and all play well in the wind which are the characteristics that I’m looking for.
Nicolas Colsaerts has embraced the Olympic movement. He has been tweeting how much it means to him to be an Olympian and that is the first box ticked. If the designer is right between the similarities of this place and Castle Stuart then we’re bang on track on that box too as Colsaerts has finishing positions of 3, 36, 8 and 3 there so he should like this course.
Colsaerts bases a lot of his time in Mauritius where he plays on a coastal course so these conditions aren’t going to hamper him in the slightest. If his putter hots up from the start I’m expecting the Belgian to give it a real good go this week.
Scott Hend will be used to sandbelt courses coming from Australia and he should be right in contention around here. We know he belts it miles and he is generally straight with it and he scores low on the courses that are set up for him.
Familiarity with the conditions combined with the length to grab this course by the scruff of the neck makes Hend a solid option here and even though there are some decent players in the field he has shown in the past he can compete with them. He’s my second pick.
My third pick doesn’t fit the bomber approach but Alex Cejka does go well in some important statistics. He is tied for third in the par 3 scoring on the PGA Tour this season and with five of those this week that could be key while in the par 4s he is tied 18th and he is tied 11th on the par 5s so on a low scoring week he looks set to score well.
A reason for his solid scoring has been his scrambling where he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this season and when you think he has performed well in some big events he should have a chance this week.
Finally I’m going to go with Thorbjorn Olesen. His form has hit the skids recently but if he isn’t inspired by these surroundings he never will be. Although his form is dodgy he has a good record in Qatar which has similar atmospheric conditions to these ones and which is an open course off the tee.
We know Olesen drives it well and if the rest of his game is in good shape then he is entitled to go well and push the bigger players all the way when the quest for medals really gets serious down the stretch on Sunday.
Tips
Back N.Colsaerts to win Olympic Golf (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Hend to win Olympic Golf (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Cejka to win Olympic Golf (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back T.Olesen to win Olympic Golf (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
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