The Mens Individual Time Trial (ITT) takes place on Wednesday 10th August at 15:00 (UK BST). There is expected to be a 50/50 chance for there to be rain during the ITT. In light of the falls in the mens and women’s road race, let us hope the rain stays well away.
The Profile
The Men’s ITT is fairly long at 54.5kms and features a 24.2km circuit that the riders will cover twice.
The ITT starts on the flat for 3kms before entering the Grumari Circuit that featured in the road race.
The Grumari Circuit include two climbs. The first, the Grumari comes at 9.7kms. The climb is 1.2 kilometres at 7% with a steepest slope at 13%. The roads level off, but remain lumpy before reaching the Grota Funda climb at 19.2kms. This is longer, at 2.1kms but features a 4.5% average gradient with a steep section at 6%.
The riders will descend from here back to the coast to repeat the circuit. If there is rain it is the descents that will cause massive issues for the riders and could throw up a surprise winner. The finish line is only 2.7kms from the end of the second circuit so expect a super fast run in to the line.
Olympics – Mens Individual Time Trial Contenders
The bookmakers see the ITT as a straight shootout between Chris Froome (GBR) and Tom Dumoulin (NED).
In the Tour de France each won an ITT and each finished 2nd in an ITT so honours even. Dumoulin’s win came on the flatter course, with Froome winning a mountain ITT. The terrain is slightly closer to the stage that Froome won so he is rightfully favourite for victory in the 2.0-2.5 range.
Dumoulin is also going to be riding with a broken wrist. He pulled out of the Mens Road Race on Saturday within the first 10kms. He will have seen the cobbled broken road section on the Grumari Circuit but I’m not sure he has ridden over it in training. This will be where the damage to the wrist will be put under immense pressure. Dumoulin has targeted this race, Froome on the other hand targeted the TDF. I think the bookmakers have not taken into consideration the wrist issues in pricing Dumoulin – 2.25-2.62 looks too short to me.
Froome, rode the entire Mens Road Race on Saturday so he has first hand experience of the course. He faded at the end but was riding more in support of team-mates. You just know the climbs on this course will not be an issue. He showed his descending has improved massively in the TDF. I really like his chances of winning Gold.
The Others
Fabian Cancellera (SUI) in his final season looked remarkably good in the Road Race. He was towards the front on the final circuit and seems to have the best form of the season now. A victory would have a fairytale sort of ring to it. I do worry that the first climb in particular will see him lose time. He can get over the gradual slopes with his power but the steep slopes are where he loses time. You can back him at 15.0-26.0 – possibly worth a sneaky little EW punt.
Rohan Dennis (AUS) and Tony Martin (GER) are vying to be third favourite prior to the start in the 8.0-13.0 range. They are both powerful riders with Martin having the better ITT pedigree. I think that they, like Cancellera will lose time on that first steep climb and that will knock them out of contention.
Vasil Kiriyenka (BEL) is reigning World Champion in the ITT. He won that on a flatter course than this one in Rio. Kiriyenka did show some climbing prowess in the TDF in support of Chris Froome but this is not really a course for him.
An outsider that I give a decent chance to is Primoz Roglic (SLO). Roglic won the first proper ITT in the Giro D’Italia in May. That was on a course not too dis-similar to this one in Rio. He didn’t race the TDF so will have fresh legs and I think he is a great EW shout in the price range 26.0-51.0.
Nelson Oliveira (POR) is another rider who could surprise. He rode well in the first ITT at the TDF beating all of the riders mentioned above bar Froome and stage winner Dumoulin. He can be backed as high as 81.0 which is worth a small bet.
Olympics – Mens Individual Time Trial – Tips
Back Chris Froome to win the ITT with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.50 with Boylesports.
Back Nelson Oliveira to win the ITT with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Boylesports.
Back Froome and Oliveira here:
Back Primoz Roglic to win the ITT with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Roglic here:
Looks from your preview that you were hovering over Cancellara for a while Kev.