We are halfway through The Open and after a calm day on Thursday the golf course and the elements really bit back on Friday to sort the men out from the boys and at the middle point in the tournament we are left with 81 players who still have their dreams of lifting the Claret Jug on Sunday intact.
Friday Recap
If the players had the course in the palms of their hands on Thursday they certainly didn’t on Friday as a sustained wind blew across the course and the rain rarely relented which made for a much tougher day with the scoring a lot higher.
At the end of it Phil Mickelson remained in the lead but he saw his overnight three shot lead whittled down to one shot with Henrik Stenson closing in courtesy of shooting a majestic six under 65 before the conditions really ramped up to top nastiness.
Mickelson leads on 10 under with Stenson on nine under and then there is Soren Kjeldsen and Keegan Bradley at seven under with Zach Johnson the only other man within five shots of Mickelson at the halfway stage.
We have three outrights in the top 11 going into the second half of the tournament with Tony Finau and Sergio Garcia in position to strike on four under with Matt Kuchar a further shot back on three under.
As far as Friday’s bets went we didn’t get anywhere with the Andy Sullivan bet but Alex Noren saw off Kevin Chappell and Steven Bowditch with a little bit in hand so we came out roughly level for the day.
Saturday 2 balls
With only one firm at the time of writing offering an end of round leader market which doesn’t have much in the way of value and with us having three men in contention in the outright market I’m going to focus purely on the two ball markets on Saturday where all 40 pairings have been priced up.
There are some excellent pairings on the golf course throughout the day and in terms of betting potential three in particular standout to me. The first of those is the match between Justin Rose and Thongchai Jaidee.
I mentioned in my fantasy preview that Justin Rose’s record in this tournament isn’t what he would like it to be and that he seemed to have a bit of a cold earlier in the week and he certainly struggled on Friday, carding a six over par 77 which included two double bogeys and not a single birdie. That isn’t great form really.
Thongchai Jaidee was three over for his round on Friday but made a couple of birdies and just ended up around the turn at the wrong time when the wind was up and things got nasty but if you look at the Thai’s tee to green game he is going well this week. He is hitting over 2/3rd of the fairways and the greens and if the putter hots up there is a decent round in him.
Contrast that to Rose who is hitting a paltry 21% of the fairways in this tournament and still looks like he is nursing an injury to me and the Open de France winner looks a big price at 2/1 here. Rose’s mechanical swing can come unravelled if the wind gets up whereas Thongchai is solid as a rock so I’m with him here.
Just before those two go out Colin Montgomerie will be back out on him home course hoping to make inroads into his four over par total. He goes out alongside Ryan Evans who is playing in the biggest event of his life. In terms of experience we’re looking at chalk and cheese here.
Monty hasn’t done a lot wrong in this tournament apart from play the back nine both days when the wind hasn’t cooperated with him but given that he’ll have the same conditions as his partner here I think the Scot is worth a punt. Evans made the cut on the number despite only hitting 21% of fairways and 50% of the greens in the right number.
That long game doesn’t get you very far on any course let alone this one which is playing very wet now and where you are going to have to play from the fairways to score especially if the wind does kick up as it is expected to do. I’m with Monty there.
Finally it has been hard to ignore the tee to green game of Emiliano Grillo this week and I believe that can count for something when he goes out alongside Anirban Lahiri on Saturday. Grillo has hit 86% of the fairways this week and 78% of the greens in the right number but the putter has been stone cold on him.
Lahiri has been nowhere near as proficient from tee to green but his short game has bailed him out at times here but I’m not so sure that can keep happening. His poor tee to green game is a legacy of his season and although I’m a big fan of the Indian’s I think he could crack here. Grillo is playing nicely and if he can hole a putt early he should run away with this match.
Tips
WON – Back T.Jaidee to beat J.Rose for a 3/10 stake at 3.00 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
Back C.Montgomerie to beat R.Evans for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
Back him here:
WON – Back E.Grillo to beat A.Lahiri for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with 888sport
Back him here:
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