The third major of the year takes place this week when the biggest names in golf graces the west coast of Scotland for the 145th staging of The Open which this year is being held at the wonderfully dramatic Royal Troon.
Everyone teeing it up this week will be eager to get their hands on the Claret Jug, perhaps nobody more so than Zach Johnson who had to give it back to the organising committee at the R&A having held the trophy for the past year courtesy of a playoff win at St Andrews 12 months ago.
Recent Winners
2015 – Zach Johnson
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Ernie Els
2011 – Darren Clarke
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen
2009 – Stewart Cink
2008 – Padraig Harrington
2007 – Padraig Harrington
2006 – Tiger Woods
The Course
For the first time since 2004 we are back at Royal Troon. The first thing to say is that American players tend to do well around here with the last six Open champions from this course all having been Americans. Those who like their trends can also add the fact that all six had won a tournament earlier in the year to their anoraks for this week. That trend whittles the field down to just 11 men (we’ll reveal who later!).
Troon is a par 71 which plays to a yardage this year of 7,190 which doesn’t make it an overly long course but as with all links courses when the wind is in a certain direction they can all be lengthy courses. As it is the wind isn’t set to be too bad this week perhaps apart from Saturday where it might edge 20mph. Rain is forecast on Friday which might make things interesting.
The key to this course is to get your scoring done early on with the best chances for birdies coming over the first six holes with the exception of the par 5 16th. It is often said around here that you do your scoring on the front nine and the scrambling to protect it on the back nine which makes for exciting Sundays here.
This course isn’t long and you don’t have to be a bomber to get around it but the longer hitters can fly a lot of the trouble off the tee and if the wind is with them can get to some of these greens with a driver so I think longer hitters might go better this week particularly with the greens much more receptive than usual with all the rain that has been around.
The Field
Anyone who is anyone in the game of golf at the minute is teeing it up this week with many current stars and former champions in the field. The last three winners of the tournament here – Mark Calcavecchia, Justin Leonard and Todd Hamilton are all in the field and will play together over the first two rounds.
One man who isn’t here is Tiger Woods. He pulled out last week which allowed Luke Donald into the field as an alternate. The big four of Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson are all in the field.
The field includes the 11 trenders from earlier in the preview. They are Jordan Spieth, Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker, Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Brian Stuard, James Hahn, William McGirt and Dustin Johnson.
Market Leaders
Jason Day heads into the tournament as the favourite this week having missed out on the playoff by a single shot last year. Since then he has won his first major and plenty of other tournaments and if he has put his collapse at Firestone behind him he will fancy his chances this week with his all-round game the best in golf right now. He’s 9/1 to win the tournament.
Dustin Johnson is the same 9/1 joint favourite but there is a case to be made that he should be the outright favourite. He arrives here off the back of a win in the US Open and then the WGC Bridgestone and is in better form than anyone. In the past there would be major concerns about his short game and mentality but the last month has shown that we can end those doubts for good.
Rory McIlroy won this tournament two years ago but a freak injury meant that he couldn’t defend the title last year so he’ll be eager to get the Claret Jug back this week. He is 10/1 to win the tournament which based on his Irish Open success would look huge but on his Open de France form it looks mighty short. He claimed he is battling his swing in that tournament and that is an instant turn off.
Jordan Spieth should be looking forward to this tournament as there is the chance it becomes a putting contest in which case he is likely to come into his own. I’m sure his supporters won’t be short in number at 12/1 and there are no concerns on getting it done in the wind as he showed at Chambers Bay in the US Open last year. He ticks every box.
Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia are two men who narrowly missed out on this tournament in the past and they are 22/1 and 25/1 respectively with Branden Grace a 30/1 shot on the best prices. It is 33/1 those seven men in what is an extremely competitive market.
Main Bets
I’m going with three main bets here. All three are good ball strikers who can play in the wind and I think that is vital. Even though the winds may not be too heavy the crosswinds mean you need to play the wind well to manage this course.
My biggest bet of the week comes on Branden Grace. The South African was on Sky Sports’ excellent Open Zone coverage on Monday and was quite open about the research he and his team has done and he was speaking very confidently and having come from a links background he should be confident this week.
Grace is a very aggressive golfer and I think that could pave the way to success this week. Grace actually said he thinks he will hit more drivers than most this week and if he drives it well like he usually does then he is going to create a lot of birdie chances. We know Grace is good in the wind and while his Open Championship record isn’t what he would like he showed his credentials at Chambers Bay last year and having won the Dunhill Links we know he can tame the Scottish dunes. He won in Qatar this year to further prove himself in the wind and he has a major chance this week.
Sergio Garcia is in excellent form having been in the top five in four of his last five starts worldwide and with the record he has on the links I think he should be a leading player this week. Very few strike the ball as well as Garcia and that is big this week.
Putting is a concern as always but if there is a links track where that might not be such a concern it could be here with the small greens which aren’t going to run particularly quick with the rain that has been around. Even so you don’t record those form figures if the short stick isn’t working so Garcia is worthy of support this week.
Graeme McDowell did a piece for Sky Sports on Facebook Live on Monday and he and his caddy couldn’t get it across strongly enough that this course suits their game and I’m always a sucker for a player who is buoyant about what they face ahead of them.
McDowell is another who doesn’t need to prove himself on the links but he did need to prove his current form which he did with a solid run in Scotland last week where he must have got everything out of the tournament that he needed. There is an element of needing to think your way around this track and Gmac does that better than most so he looks heftily overpriced at 80/1.
Outsiders
I’m going to chance three at big prices too who I believe will all run well. They are a mixture of profiles which are largely price orientated and the first of those is the former Scottish Open runner up Matt Kuchar.
Kuchar is an American who has always embraced the links and I think that is a big thing. He has played in a number of Scottish Open’s in the lead up to The Open although he didn’t play it this year but this should be his sort of course. He drives it straight, can play in the wind and has an excellent short game which you’re always going to need to fall back on at some point. At 66/1 he’s a little too big this week.
I’m not sure if you can call someone a links specialist with the luck involved in being able to tame the links but if there is such a thing Ernie Els would be high up in the list and I think he could be worth a follow here. He is very comfortable in the wind and while he is probably remembered this year for his putting disaster at The Masters we shouldn’t ignore that he is actually 20th in Strokes Gained Putting on the PGA Tour this year.
The 66 Els hit in the first round at TPC Sawgrass showed that his game was coming around and then we saw that at Congressional a few weeks ago when he finished in the top five which was probably the worst he could have done that week. With the putter working and his comfort in Scotland another positive I’ll chance the South African at 125/1.
Finally I’m going to take a chance to see just how far the enormous length of Tony Finau takes him. I would expect him to pull the driver out on most of the first six holes and really give it a go of posting a crazy number and then that length he has can assist him in protecting that score down the back nine.
Finau won in the wind in Puerto Rico earlier in the season and was in the top 20 at Chambers Bay last year so there is enough there to think he could give us a run for our money at 300/1.
Tips
Back B.Grace to win The Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back G.McDowell to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back E.Els to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back S.Garcia to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Kuchar to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back T.Finau to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-7)
Back him here:
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