A fantastic 2015/16 PGA Tour season ends this week with the Tour Championship in Atlanta. There is still plenty on the line for the 30 men who have qualified for the finale.
The FedEx Cup is up for grabs this week including the huge bounty that goes with it. The top five in the FedEx rankings heading into the week are in control of their own destiny. If any of them win this tournament they will leave Atlanta a cool $11.53m richer. For the Americans not yet in Davis Love III’s Ryder Cup team there is one spot left which will be filled immediately after this event. This is a huge week.
Recent Winners
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bill Haas
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Phil Mickelson
2008 – Camilo Villegas
2007 – Tiger Woods
2006 – Adam Scott
The Course
East Lake Golf Club remains the venue for the final event of the season as it has done ever since it first staged the tournament in 2004. It is a par 70 which measures 7,385 yards which makes it fairly lengthy even by modern day standards.
That doesn’t mean that length is paramount this week though. Only one of the last six winners have been in the top 10 for driving distance and that person, Bill Haas, was only ninth. On the flip side of that accuracy appears to be needed. Only one of the last six champions ranked outside the top 10 for accuracy and that was Billy Horschel who was only just outside it.
Greens in regulation is a key statistic this week. The winners of this tournament have tended to be the best ranked putter that particular week so those who are getting the ball to the hole should be favoured.
It should also be pointed out that the nines have been reversed now so no longer does the season end with a par 3. Instead a monster 600 yard par 5 will close out the tournament. This should make for stacks more drama and ensure no lead is safe standing on the final tee.
Who can win the FedEx Cup?
Well everybody in the field can! That’s right. A tweak to the scoring system a few years ago means that all 30 men heading to Atlanta can win the tournament. If any of the current top five in the points list win this tournament they win the cup. So Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott and Paul Casey have their destiny in their own hands.
The others can all win but they need help from the top five. The lower down the points list you the more unlikely it is he can win. Charl Schwartzel who got in here on the bubble needs a mathematical miracle to land the prize and the huge pot of cash. There is no cut this week so everyone will play the full four rounds.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the favourite to win the title this week and while his East Lake form is mixed his recent form is anything but that. Although accuracy over length is the order of the day Johnson is driving the ball magnificently at the minute and even at 9/2 he’s the one they have to beat.
Rory McIlroy has arrived in Atlanta with the chance to win the whole shebang a couple of times and made a mess of it. For whatever reason this course isn’t one of his favourites and that doesn’t inspire too much confidence in a punt at 6/1. He would need to putt like he did in Boston three weeks ago to have a chance.
Jason Day is currently the third favourite at 9/1 but his attendance hasn’t been confirmed yet. Rumours are that the back issue which forced him to withdraw from the BMW Championship may persist here. That immediately takes away any intention of backing him.
Defending champion Jordan Spieth is 10/1 to make a successful defence of the title. If he can find one of those sparkling putting weeks he would be right there but his recent waywardness off the tee produces little confidence.
Adam Scott is 11/1 to regain the title and it is 16/1 bar those named with Paul Casey on that mark. There is a nightmare scenario for the PGA Tour that he can finish second this week and still win the FedEx Cup without winning a single tournament on the season but that is a very complicated equation!
Main Bet
I’m going with Adam Scott as my main bet this week. He is back to flushing it like he was at the start of the year again and has been incredibly consistent in these playoffs finishing fourth in every event. Having had a week to regroup and recover and with no Ryder Cup issues to worry about I’m expecting a big week from Scotty.
He is relentless with the driver off the tee. Plus, nobody has found more greens in the right number in the playoffs than him. If he can continue to get a decent roll on these greens he isn’t going to be far away. With destiny in his own hands we know he’ll leave it all out there. There is just about enough mileage in his price to justify a punt.
Outsiders
I’m going with two outsiders this week as well. Both hit the ball as solidly as anyone and they hit plenty of greens too. If they can hole some putts then they are entitled to be right in the mix over the weekend.
The two men in question are Emiliano Grillo and Ryan Moore. Grillo has already gone close in one of these playoff events. Having started the season with the win it would be a nice bookmark to the campaign if he ends it with a win here. Few hit the ball as sweetly as he does so he is likely to give us a good run for our money.
Ryan Moore is an underrated player. I think the Ryder Cup is beyond him now unless he wins this tournament. That is certainly a nice incentive to inspire him to better his excellent showing here last year. We know Moore will find the fairways and the greens so if the putts drop he could make some decent cash this week.
Tips
Back A.Scott to win PGA Tour Championship (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 12.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Bet here:
Back E.Grillo to win PGA Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-4)
PLACED – Back R.Moore to win PGA Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-4)
Bet here:
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