It is Super Bowl weekend which means that the PGA Tour heads to Arizona, not far from where the big match will be played, for the Phoenix Open, the tournament which is highlighted by the ‘Loudest Hole in Golf’ among many appealing traits of this event.
It was certainly appealing for Scottie Scheffler last season when he won the first of the four PGA Tour titles which he won in the space of eight weeks. He is back in the desert for what is now a designated event which means a much stronger field.
Recent Winners
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Brooks Koepka
2020 – Webb Simpson
2019 – Rickie Fowler
2018 – Gary Woodland
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Brooks Koepka
2014 – Kevin Stadler
2013 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
All golf fans will know all about TPC Scottsdale and plenty who aren’t big supporters of the sport will do too with the famous 16th hole. This isn’t a long course by any stretch of the imagination. It is a par 71 but it only measures 7,261 yards which with the dry desert air makes it a relatively short course. There was a redesign of the track in 2015 and since then it has been the longer hitters who’ve held sway in the main.
Although there isn’t a huge challenge off the tee here you do need to drive the ball well because the desert areas aren’t fun but generally this is a test of approach into the large greens and then putting on them. Since the refurb only top drawer winners have been produced so this might not be an event for the rookies or those not accustomed with winning.
The Field
The added status to this tournament has had the desired effect on the field because there is an excellent one which has been assembled. It is led by the three men of the moment in the form of the regular winner in recent times in Jon Rahm, a Rory McIlroy who is looking to back up his win in Dubai last time out and the defending champion Scottie Scheffler. Recent former champions Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama are also in the field.
We can get used to big names in these designated events and that is certainly the case this week. Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and Max Homa have all been regular winners on the tour recently while Justin Thomas and Tom Kim both won last year. The likes of Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young are in the field as are the US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick and other star names such as Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is a 7/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. Winning is what he does these days having the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. He also has an excellent record around here without winning the tournament. He has finished between T9 and T13 in each of the last five years but there appears to be something that gets in the way of him winning here. That said, I wouldn’t be too keen to oppose him too strongly.
It isn’t too often that Rory McIlroy is not the favourite for a tournament but he isn’t the favourite for this one. He can be backed at 17/2 to take this title down for the first time. He has only played this event once in the last five years which was when he was T13 here a couple of years ago. He has been performing very well in recent times. He is the FedExCup champion and the holder of the Race to Dubai title and won the Dubai Desert Classic recently, all this while being the public face of the PGA Tour, a face which is likely to be needed this week with the clash between the DP World Tour and LIV golf coming to a head. That is enough to put me off on a course where McIlroy could be vulnerable to others anyway.
Scottie Scheffler is 12/1 to do what Hideki Matsuyama did in 2016 and 2017 and retain the title he won a year ago. Scheffler has become a major champion since winning here 12 months ago so you would think he can handle all the media scrutiny that winners get when they go back and defend titles but he looked rusty at the Tournament of Champions and not a great deal better at The American Express. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but his form isn’t jumping out at me as the winner.
Xander Schauffele has done everything but win this tournament. He has three top 10 finishes in the last four years including finishing second in 2021 and third in 2022. There is a question mark over the form of Schauffele but he was third in The American Express, although it was a flying finish on the final day to get there, and T13 at Torrey Pines. One positive for Schauffele is he wasn’t involved in the lengthy delays at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. He could well contend again at 14/1.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets and they are both men who know how to contend. I always think you have to embrace the closing holes and that might be why the results of Tony Finau and a few others isn’t what it should be here. One man who does embrace it is Justin Thomas and as a sports fan I think he gets inspired by what could be classed as the golfing Super Bowl around that 16th hole. As a result of that the record of the reigning USPGA Championship winner around here is very good. He has gone T17-3-T3-T13-T8 here in the last five years and clearly enjoys the test. He probably hasn’t performed how he would have wanted to so far this season but there is too much class in Thomas to keep underperforming for long. At 20/1 I’ll pay to see how he goes here.
Max Homa probably hasn’t cracked the code around here just yet but it will come because he is so good from tee to green right now that the penny just has to drop eventually. He has a couple of top 15 finishes around here and comes into the tournament off the back of a fine win at Torrey Pines a couple of weeks ago. He didn’t play Pebble Beach last week so he has had a week to come to terms with his win at the Farmers Insurance where he played excellent golf all week. A repeat of that long game performance will make him a very tough nut to crack. Homa is very visible on social media and quite a fun sort on there so the raucous nature of this event shouldn’t undo him. I think he can go very well here.
Outsiders
I’ll also play three outsiders here. Billy Horschel has a decent enough record here which is no surprise given the prowess of his long game. He certain has no tiredness issues because he didn’t play any of the trio of events on the west coast so far this season. He should be geared up for a good shot at this one. Horschel has a couple of top 10s in his last three starts on this course and as long as he hasn’t built up too much rust since he was in Hawaii then I’m expecting a decent showing, especially if his putter is as hot as the desert this is played in.
Matt Kuchar is another one with a good record around here. Again, that is not a surprise because the American is as straight a hitter as there is in the game. Usually he could lack some length but the dry air assists with that and I see no reason why he can’t have another big run here. Kuchar was in a tie for seventh at the Sony Open last month and missed the cut at Pebble Beach last week so didn’t have to hang around on the coast longer than was necessary. If he isn’t caught out with a lack of length all of a sudden then the popular American can go well here.
When Garrick Higgo burst onto the PGA Tour scene a couple of seasons ago I was lucky enough to be on board when he won the Palmetto Championship and as a result of that I’ve always followed his form from afar and he might just be rounding into something which allows him to contend here. Unlike Kuchar, Higgo definitely won’t be caught out off the tee. He is perfectly long enough to get the job done and a T11 at The American Express and T20 at Pebble Beach highlights that he is taking advantage of easier courses and isn’t fussed about all the hullabaloo outside the ropes. He was T21 on debut here last year and having had a spin and knowing what to expect a little more the South African, who ranked in the top 10 from tee to green at The American Express, could easily outrun his odds here.
Tips
Back J.Thomas to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/5 1-10)
Back M.Homa to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Horschel to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Kuchar to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back G.Higgo to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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