The regular season of the DP World Tour draws to a close this week when a competitive field head from Spain to Portugal for the Portugal Masters. Those not yet inside the top 125 on the Race to Dubai rankings have just this week to get in there else they will lose their tour card so there is plenty on the line here.
Thomas Pieters had no such concern last year when he won this title and he doesn’t have any tour card issues this time around either. He has chosen not to defend his crown though so we are guaranteed a new winner.
Recent Winners
2021 – Thomas Pieters
2020 – George Coetzee
2019 – Steven Brown
2018 – Tom Lewis
2017 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2016 – Padraig Harrington
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alexander Levy
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
The Course
We are back at the Dom Pedro Victoria Course in Vilamoura this week. This is a resort track which is a par 71 playing to a full yardage of 7,191 yards. It certainly isn’t a long track. It is a place that suits the longer hitters and aggressive players. Scoring is always low in this tournament so when selecting bets you need to be looking for players who will be playing front foot golf, as we’ve seen throughout most of the events in this part of the world this season.
The fairways are pretty wide here and the greens are on the bigger side so this does tend to come down to a short game and putting contest so those who can attack the flags with shorter irons certainly have an advantage. The weather in this part of the world is rarely a problem either. The one thing to note is that although this is a resort track, it does tend to produce a classy winner in the main.
The Field
The field this week has just two players from the top 100 in the world in it so while it is competitive, it has to be said that it isn’t the strongest in terms of depth of quality. Those two players are Robert MacIntyre and Victor Perez. Jordan Smith is only on the outskirts of the top 100 at 105. Andy Sullivan and Tom Lewis are two former champions who are in the field so there are players here who know how to take the event down.
Six members of the top 25 in the Race to Dubai rankings are in the field this week. As well as MacIntyre, Perez and Smith, there is Yannik Paul, Thorbjorn Olesen and Hurly Long. At the other end of the scale, Frederic Lacroix and Daniel van Tonder are sitting at 127 and 128 in the R2D rankings and need to get into the top 125 to keep their card. Number 124 Dave Horsey and number 123 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia will look to hold off the chasing pack.
Market Leaders
Robert MacIntyre is a 14/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. The Italian Open is in fine form at the minute. Since he won that tournament he has gone 8-20-9 in his last three starts and the last of those would have been better at Valderrama had it not been for a closing 74. He has only played here once and finished way down the field when he finished with an 82 which is a little alarming and enough to put me off him at the prices.
Jordan Smith has been a tee to green machine for much of the season and he’ll tee it up as a 16/1 shot this week. Smith has done everything but win this season and has last six event form figures of 7-MC-12-7-DQ-6. He has been knocking at the door all season but as yet it hasn’t opened and it might be that it doesn’t open here either when you consider that he has played this event four times and is yet to make the top 25. He’s a bit skinny for a player who can’t put four good putting rounds together.
Victor Perez is 18/1 on the best prices. The Dutch Open champion should really be suited to the test here with him being an excellent driver of the ball as well as competent on the greens. He was third in Italy recently but only middle of the road in the two events he has played since then. He was T8 here last year when he closed with his best round of the week which was a 65 and he might well be the one to beat here.
Nicolai Hojgaard was the closest challenger to Thomas Pieters here last year but seems to be having a bit of an issue closing the deal this year. That was evidenced last week in Mallorca where he was in an excellent position after 36 holes but closed with a poor final 18 holes. I do think this place suits him perfectly but he is either extremely good with the putter or very ordinary. There is no room for the latter if you want to win this week so at 20/1 I can leave him alone.
Main Bets
I’ve long thought that Victor Perez would win this tournament and when you consider that he finished in the top 10 in a stronger field on debut a year ago, he has to be considered as one of the players to beat this time around. Perez probably hasn’t had the season he would have wanted since he won the Dutch Open but he was third on a tight track in Italy not long ago and now he can let loose with the driver and let his approach play and putting prowess come to the fore. I have him down as the favourite this week so I’m happy to be on at 18/1.
Joakim Lagergren missed out in his specialist tournament, the Dunhill Links Championship, but since then he has been in decent touch. He was T23 in the Open de Espana where he floundered in the final round but then he finished second at Valderrama and you don’t go well around there if you are hitting the ball very well. Lagergren now heads to Portugal where he has gone 17-MC-14-3 in the last four starts. The Swede picked up a pretty ridiculous 14.783 shots on the greens at Valderrama a couple of weeks ago and if he putts like that here he could be very hard to beat. I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week as well with the first of those coming in the form of Dale Whitnell. He arrives here in excellent touch with form figures of 12-26-10-MC-4 in his last five starts. The latest of those was in Mallorca last week where he closed with a 72. He was tied for third after 54 holes but couldn’t go with the pace in the final round but I’m hoping that having had a taste of the limelight it will inspire him to go and get it again and this time when he is in the mix he puts up a much better showing. In those four cuts he recently made he has ranked 7-31-4-17 for strokes gained putting and if that continues he should go very well.
Ricardo Gouveia is on home soil this week and he tends to go quite well around here. He hasn’t had a particularly great season but he has got a pair of top 10s around here and has shown signs of life in the last fortnight. He has finished 19-16 for the last two weeks and what I’ve liked about those weeks he has finished 7-20 for strokes gained on approach and 23-16 for strokes gained with the putter. Those numbers should have him right in the mix on a course he goes well on and in a weaker field than those ratings were put up in. I’ll pay to see how he goes here.
The final bet for me this week is Lukas Nemecz, a player who I followed a lot earlier in the year and whose bandwagon I’m happy to be on again this week. He arrives here with a T9 and T11 in the last two events on the Iberian Swing and I think he is primed to go very well here. He hasn’t played this tournament since 2016 but clearly he is a much better player now. The eye catching thing about his last two efforts is that he was fourth and seventh in strokes gained with the putter and his long game has been in good working order. At the prices he could be the sleeper this week.
Tips
Back V.Perez to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back D.Whitnell to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back R.Gouveia to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back L.Nemecz to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back J.Lagergren to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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