After an absolutely thrilling, high quality event at Woburn last week for the British Masters the European Tour departs the UK again this week and heads to Portugal for the Portugal Masters.
Things are getting serious for a number of players out on tour now as those outside the top 110 on the Race to Dubai standings have just two weeks left to get in that position in order to secure playing rights for next season.
This is the ninth staging of the Portugal Masters and this year’s renewal has a decent enough field despite the PGA Tour season beginning. Alex Levy landed the title in an event shortened to 36 holes last year and he’s back to defend his title. He is 30/1 with Betfred to retain the crown.
The Oceanico Victoria Golf Club in Vilamoura is the venue for the tournament this week as it has been ever since its inception so it will be a familiar place for much of the field. The course appears to suit the longer hitters who can take the many fairway bunkers out of play.
The fairways around this par 71 track are wider than the ones we saw last week and the rough isn’t too penal so that will assist the longer hitters too. Just like last week the greens are large and undulating but we’re looking for low scores this week for sure, especially if the traditional Portugal rain has a say.
Open de France champion Bernd Wiesberger heads the field this week. He is 12/1 to land the title alongside the former US Open champion Martin Kaymer who is the same price. Kaymer looks to have lost a bit of his nerve this year which would be a concern. Chris Wood and Soren Kjeldsen are both 20/1 ahead of Tommy Fleetwood who is 22/1 and it is 30/1 bar those five.
I watched a lot of Chris Wood in the opening two rounds last week and he played nicely so I was surprised to see him berate his putter on twitter on Sunday but that immediately puts me off him at a skinny price.
Soren Kjeldsen played lovely last week and can be a factor here. The course suits longer hitters but at 7,209 yards the shorter ones can go well if they play good stuff. I’m just not convinced he’ll make enough birdies.
Although driving distance is going to be a big thing when it comes to my picks this week I’m also looking for above average putters. We saw last week the difference being a good putter can make and I’m certain that will be the case again this week.
I’ve got two main picks this week and the first of those is a man chasing a hat-trick of titles and that is the Belgian bomber Thomas Pieters. Pieters won both the Czech Masters and the KLM Open in recent times and should launch a decent tilt on this title.
He is long off the tee but his putting stats are right up there as well and with the confidence he will be taking to the Algarve with him I’m happy for Pieters to be the first man I invest in this week.
My other main pick is another man who has picked up some form in recent times and that is the young French golfer Romain Wattel. Only the winner Matthew Fitzpatrick made more birdies than Wattel on a really tough course to score on last week so that is a positive as is the fact nobody hit more fairways than Wattel.
Wattel was in the top seven in distance off the tee so to hit more fairways than anyone at Woburn shows how well he is driving the ball and on a much easier course to score on the number of birdies he is making should put him right in the mix come Sunday.
I’m going to take a stab at a few at a bigger prices too with the first of those being Joakim Lagergren. The Swede has been in the top five of two of his last three tournaments so he is hitting the ball well but most importantly he is making a number of putts. He has scored -18 and -15 in those events so going low is part of his make up and I’ll take a chance he goes low again this week.
Getting Pelle Edberg on the right week is a pretty stiff task but generally when you do get his good weeks you get a solid run for your money. Edberg has three top four finishes in the last three months but there is a fair bit of filth mixed in with that but this course should suit him as he can let the drives fly and when he’s in range he knows how to attack the hole so I’m happy to chance this is Edberg’s week.
Finally I was lucky enough to walk a dozen holes watching Mikael Lundberg last week and he was driving it beautifully and with two to play in the second round he had a putt to tie the lead. Surprisingly he missed that and Sunday was a bit of a meltdown on a tough day to score but his tee to green game looks in fabulous nick and we know he is one of the better putters out there.
Lundberg needs a big week to get into the top 110 in the R2D rankings and that’s enough motivation for him to go well and for me to back him.
Back T.Pieters to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back R.Wattel to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-5)
Back J.Lagergren to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back P.Edberg to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back M.Lundberg to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-5)
