Ahead of the start of the Premier League season this weekend there is still a last chance to have a look at the top goalscorer market and with many of the best forwards in the world in the competition this season the race for the Golden Boot is likely to be quite fierce.
Harry Kane won the award last season by one goal from Jamie Vardy and Sergio Aguero and that confirms that it is likely to be competitive even without taking into account the plethora of new forwards that have come into the division.
The Favourites
Sergio Aguero was a goal short last season but he is the well backed 7/2 favourite to top the goal charts. We know how good he is and with Guardiola’s possession based game he is likely to see a lot of the ball but he can be injury prone and that would be a concern.
Last year’s winner Harry Kane is the second favourite at 7/1. I guess the question over him is how he will cope with a partner alongside him and whether his goals will be more shared. He will also be in the Champions League for the first time and the Euro’s never did his reputation much good either.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has finally made it to the Premier League and he is expected to score a hatful of goals. I remain unconvinced but he is 9/1 to be the leading scorer in the division. He will score goals if given the chances. Whether they will be created is a different story.
Romelu Lukaku had a big season in a disappointing campaign for Everton last season so if they improve in theory his goal output should as well. At his best he can be unplayable but equally he can hit slumps which last much longer than he would like.
Jamie Vardy captured the nation last season when falling a goal short of the Golden Boot and he is 18/1 to lead the scoring this time around. Ahmed Musa could take some of his goals and he has the second season syndrome to deal with but if he can overcome that he should score goals in this league.
Diego Costa is next in the betting but with Chelsea signing Michy Batshuayi I’m not convinced he gets the game time he will need to score enough goals to top score over the season. His inevitable regular suspensions aren’t likely to help either.
Alexis Sanchez, Olivier Giroud, Michy Batshuayi and Daniel Sturridge are all in the 25/1 range and all four are capable of big seasons. Whether Batshuayi is on the pitch long enough is a big question mark while Sturridge’s injuries would put me off.
Betting
I could be here a while to label all the other contenders from Wayne Rooney to Divock Origi, from Marcus Rashford to Sadio Mane and plenty more in between but as ever I’m going to look to the value for bets in this market.
First thing I will say is I’m avoiding the top of the market for a couple of reasons. With two international tournaments in the summer and the star players playing in it and therefore not getting much of a break it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if they start slowly or fade late unless they get regular breaks and any breaks wouldn’t be ideal. The other reason is I don’t like my money tied up in short prices especially in markets where an injury will finish your bet off.
Therefore I’m going with two at big prices. They might not win but with Paddy Power paying six places and with only three men going past the 20 goal marker last season there is the chance to make some money even with someone getting 16-18 goals.
Callum Wilson scored five goals in seven league matches for Bournemouth last season in a campaign where a lengthy injury forced him to miss the majority of the season but that impact over the time he did play suggests to me that if he can play the full season he is going to threaten 20 goals.
He has the attributes defenders hate. He is powerful, strong and most importantly he has pace and with Bournemouth playing nice and expansive and having the creativity to set him up I see no reason why Wilson won’t continue to score goals. At 50/1 he is overpriced to get in the mix.
Another man I’ve seen an awful lot of could also be overpriced and he has the same characteristics that Wilson does. That man is the Burnley forward Andre Gray. He is very similar to Jamie Vardy in his background and how he came through non-league to make it to the top and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a similar impact to the Leicester forward.
Gray was the leading scorer in the Championship last season and led it by a long way which proves his goalscoring ability. It might be that Burnley don’t create much for him but with his pace and power he is more than capable of creating chances himself.
The last six seasons the sixth placed man has had (most recent first) 16, 14, 16, 17, 17 and 13 goals so a 15 goal season gets you right in the mix here. We’ve seen strikers in promoted sides get in contention such as Charlie Austin a couple of years ago and we’ve seen strikers in relegated sides go ok too just like Austin, DJ Campbell in 2010/11 and Clint Dempsey too.
With the statistics showing you don’t need to be scoring 25 goals to get a return I’m happy to take my chances on an Andre Gray who I fancy could well surprise the division this season. I’ll take my chances with 15 goals but more than that and he could threaten just like Jamie Vardy.
Tips
Back C.Wilson Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Gray Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
