We have a big day of Premier League action to enjoy on Saturday when the title race plays out another chapter as does the race for the top four and an intriguing battle to avoid the drop on what looks like a key set of games.
Just like the majority of Saturdays in the Premier League, we begin and then end with a TV match and then the six matches that take place in between will have regular updates in all the usual well-known places.
Early Kick Off
We kick off at Villa Park when Unai Emery and his Aston Villa side welcome his former club Arsenal to the midlands for the lunchtime kick off. Arsenal have lost the lead in the title race for the first time this season but they will go back to the top of the table for a few hours at least should they come out of this one undefeated. Emery is too much of a gentleman to admit it but he might be fuelled by the prospect of getting one over the club which sacked him and potentially damaging their title hopes in the process.
3pm Matches
It is not very often that the Premier League leaders play in the traditional 3pm Saturday slot these days but because of their Champions League fixture in midweek, Manchester City are in action at that time. They face a trip to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest looking to retain their lead at the top of the table. Brighton and Hove Albion are the next highest team in action in these games. They host fellow surprise package Fulham.
At the other end of the table two sides either side of the relegation line meet when Everton welcome Leeds United to Goodison Park, while AFC Bournemouth will be looking to clamber out of the relegation zone when they make the trip to Molineux to take on Wolverhampton Wanderers. Southampton begin life without Nathan Jones with a trip to Chelsea and the other match sees two sides from the capital meeting when Brentford take on Crystal Palace.
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Late Game
The action concludes at St James’ Park where Newcastle United will look to keep their top four hopes on track a week out from competing in the Carabao Cup final next weekend. They host a Liverpool side who got their campaign back on track with a win in the Merseyside Derby on Monday night but who need to sprout wings and fly if they are going to finish in the top four. Defeat here would seriously dent those ambitions but a win would certainly revive them.
Betting
This is a really tough card to get involved in with a number of level looking matches or favourites who aren’t trustworthy against outsiders who you wouldn’t really want carrying your hand earned. I’m tempted by Brentford and Wolves but both are plenty short enough so in the end I’ve decided to go with one which comes in the late game where Newcastle United host a Liverpool side who everything think turned the corner on Monday night but I’m not convinced.
The bet I like here is for Newcastle to have more than 12.5 shots, so that is shots whether they hit the target or not. Newcastle average around 18 shots per match at St James’ this season and only three times have they failed to go beyond 12.5 shots this season, one of those coming against Manchester City when they had 12 shots despite having less than a third of the play. They should have more play against Liverpool and face a defence which has surrendered xG totals of 1.96 and 2.89 in their last two Premier League away matches. Even with Virgil van Dijk potentially back this Liverpool defence is nothing to write home about on the road and with Newcastle usually performing strongly against the big sides at home I expect the chances to flow. Newcastle can dominate this Liverpool defence and midfield in open play and from set-pieces so I’ll back them to reach 13 shots for a ninth time in 12 home games.
Tips
Back Newcastle United – Over 12.5 shots for a 3/10 stake at 2.38 with Betway
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