The Premier League run in continues with the final Monday Night Football of the season as Aston Villa play host to Liverpool in a match which for a long time looked like it would be even more important than it actually is.
For Liverpool, this is a dead rubber, but for Aston Villa it could be the night that they secure qualification for the Champions League next season, which would cap off their fine ascent in recent times. A win will ensure a top four finish for the hosts.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Monday Night Football programme which will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League channels. The show starts at 6.30pm with kick off at Villa Park coming at 8pm.
Aston Villa
This has been a wonderful season for Aston Villa and if they can cap it with a top four finish and set them up for the future campaigns then it would be a wonderful achievement. There have been a few signs recently that the exertions of the season have started to catch up with them as they have been juggling Premier League and Europa Conference League commitments, with them coming up just short in the latter competition. A win here would achieve something most wouldn’t have thought possible at the beginning of the campaign.
One of the reasons why Villa are in the position that they are is their home form. They have lost just three times all season, two of which came in a bizarre spell around the turn of the year and the other one was against Tottenham in another weird game a few weeks ago. This Villa side certainly have goals in them but just recently they have been conceding more than Unai Emery will be comfortable with and they need to sort that out if they want the result here.
Liverpool
While Liverpool are higher in the league table than Aston Villa and have a trophy to their name, theirs is probably a season if not of regret then certainly of what might have been. They will finish third in the table but that is a couple of spots lower than they were threatening to finish for much of the season and after failed European and FA Cup campaigns, the Carabao Cup is all they are going to have to show for a season which offered so much more.
The big problem for Liverpool has been their defence. They have conceded too many goals this season and quite often it has been an early first goal which has left them chasing the game. That in turn has put pressure on their attack to deliver and that hasn’t been nearly as reliable as it has in past glorious seasons. Injuries on top of that haven’t helped and when it all goes into the pot it combines for a season which has fizzled out a little too easily.
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Team News
Aston Villa will have to assess the fitness status of Nicolo Zaniolo, Alex Moreno and Youri Tielemans ahead of this match while it seems as though Morgan Rogers could be forced to miss out again which could see Jhon Duran starting.
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp kept his cards close to his chest ahead of his final away match in charge of the Reds but it is thought that Diogo Jota is nearing a return to action while Darwin Nunez is also pushing for a start.
Betting
I’ve said before that I have never been a subscriber to the ‘need to win so will win’ theory that so often clouds everything at this stage of a season but I do think the value is with the home side here even though they look to be crawling over the finish line for the campaign. Liverpool are doing no better and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if subconsciously their players keep something in hand to ensure they give Jurgen Klopp the send off that he wants at Anfield on Sunday.
Aston Villa won’t be short of motivation. A win secures Champions League football but this is their final home match of the campaign too so they will want to go out with a win in front of their own fans. They have already beaten the top two on this ground this season so they know they have the beating of the better sides. The handicap line for this one is +0.75 on the Villa side so we don’t even need them to win the match to get a pay out here. A home win or a draw gets us a full return while even a one goal Liverpool win gets us half of out stake back. This Liverpool front line miss too many chances on the road for my liking and they’ll go well to beat Emi Martinez regularly. I’ll take the home side with that advantage here.
Tips
Back Aston Villa (+0.75AH) to beat Liverpool for a 3/10 stake at 1.86 with Bet365
