The Premier League weekend concludes on Monday evening when two teams from the south coast meet in the Monday Night Football when AFC Bournemouth welcome Southampton for a big match at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth have only won one of their opening five matches but that is still one more than Southampton have managed. The three points will be welcomed strongly by whoever earns them in this contest.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Monday Night Football programme which airs on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League channels. The show begins at 6.30pm ahead of the 8pm kick off.
AFC Bournemouth
After a really positive season last term, a lot was expected of AFC Bournemouth this time around. Some of that might have been tempered when Dominic Solanke was allowed to leave the club for Tottenham relatively late on in the transfer window. His replacement was always going to take time to adjust and get into the speed of the Premier League and that has equated to a slow start where their only win was largely down to an Everton collapse from 2-0 up.
The good thing for Bournemouth is that despite the loss of Solanke they haven’t changed their approach. They still press as high as anyone and as relentlessly as anyone and are second in the division in winning the ball back in the opposing third of the pitch. That bodes very well for them here and now they will be looking to convert a better percentage of their chances. If they do that they will think they have every chance of picking up a second win here.
Southampton
It always looked before a ball was kicked this season that Southampton had the potential to replicate Burnley of last season. The manager is clearly not going to change his style and philosophy and while it worked well in the Championship teams are all over them in the Premier League and as a result of that they are still looking for their first win of the season. The signs are that they will either tamely drop back to the Championship or Russell Martin will be sacked.
The playing out from the back has its plus sides but it gets Southampton into so much trouble. They lead the league in errors leading to goals against them and errors leading to shots and against the second best pressing and high turnover team in the league that has disaster written all over it. Things aren’t all doom and gloom for Saints though because when they do beat the press they create good chances. Their total xG this season is 7.1 so it paints a poor picture on their attackers that they have only scored twice.
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Team News
AFC Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola has not declared any new injury concerns ahead of this derby clash. That means that Tyler Adams is the only man who will be missing from the squad but the Spaniard might choose to rotate after a tame loss at Liverpool last time out.
Russell Martin has no fresh injury concerns to deal with either but he has Jack Stephens missing for a third time as he completes the ban for his recent red card. Ben Brereton Diaz could have to settle for a spot on the bench as Ryan Fraser is in line to face his former club.
Betting
Whichever way I look at this match I just see it as a disastrous matchup for Southampton. Their errors leading to goals count is the highest in the league and now they face the second best team at winning the ball back in the opposing final third. That alone has the recipe for carnage and that is before we consider that even when the Saints are creating chances they are missing so many of them. It really isn’t the formula for success here.
The question is how best to play AFC Bournemouth in this match. I’m not a massive fan of backing a side who have only won one in five matches at odds on, although they were a ridiculous VAR decision away from beating Newcastle and how they didn’t beat Chelsea only they will know. I think the best way to back them is to take them on the Asian handicap line which is -1. That means we get our money back on a one goal Bournemouth win but the traps the Cherries will set Southampton here should lead to them winning by more than a single goal.
Tips
Back AFC Bournemouth (-1AH) to beat Southampton for a 3/10 stake at 2.01 with Bet365
