It is the penultimate night of the Premier League Darts season on Thursday with the eight players heading to Leeds to play out for more points in the race for spots at the o2 in two weeks as well as the weekly £10,000 prize.
Luke Littler picked up the money and the nightly win in Aberdeen last week and he’ll be looking to follow that up in Leeds where the race for the top four in the league table is set to intensify ahead of next week.
Michael van Gerwen vs Gerwyn Price
The opening quarter final on Thursday night sees Michael van Gerwen looking to sew up his spot at the o2 in a fortnight when he takes on a Gerwyn Price who was eliminated from the competition last week when he had to pull out due to injury.
This is the first time the Welshman has been seen since because he pulled out of the Players Championship events earlier in the week and you wonder what sort of state he is in given that it was a back problem that ruled him out last week. If he is fit and firing then with nothing to lose in terms of the fact he can’t make the o2, he could be a dangerous customer for a van Gerwen who has now lost his last four matches in all competitions having bombed out at the first stage of the two Players Championship events earlier in the week. To be fair to MVG, he put in a really decent performance in Aberdeen last week without getting anything to show for it and if he can repeat that here then surely he’ll be too good for a weakened Price. There are just too many doubts for me to get involved here though so I’ll leave this one alone.
Luke Littler vs Peter Wright
The second quarter final of the night sees the leader of the pack in Luke Littler taking on the man who has propped up the rest for the entire season in Peter Wright in a game where there isn’t much riding on it for either player.
Littler will at least want to keep his form up ahead of the finals in London in a couple of weeks so you would imagine that he will be right at it here. Wright is basically using the last two weeks as preparation for the European Tour events and the TV tournaments to come for the remainder of the year. Littler is a worthy favourite here but at 1/7 he can win if he is good enough. The bet I like is for Wright to have a 3 dart average in excess of 92.5. He hasn’t got going in this competition in terms of wins but despite that he has only dropped below this total in five of the 16 matches he has played. I always highlight how opposing averages are inflated against Luke Littler because his finishing is so good and his scoring so powerful that few legs go beyond 15 darts and that was highlighted the last time these two met in the quarter final when Wright averaged 103.37. He might not average quite as much here but the 92.5 line looks too low to me. I’ll play the over.
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Luke Humphries vs Rob Cross
It is a big night for the world champion and world number one as he walks out onto stage in Leeds, his spiritual home, as Luke Humphries goes up against Rob Cross in a big match for the latter as he looks to keep his hopes of the o2 alive.
Cross is seven points adrift of the top four so he is probably going to have to win both of the remaining nights in order to make it to the o2 and hope that results go his way to get him there. Humphries doesn’t need to worry about that. Because the way the fixtures are that fourth meets fifth in the quarter final next week he is already secured his spot at the finals and now it is all about looking to go there with some form. Humphries has lost the last three matches that he has played in all competitions so that will give Cross some hope but the crowd might be against him here. He was my outright pick for this tournament so I’m hoping he can have a big night to keep his chances alive but I’ll do that without backing him.
Nathan Aspinall vs Michael Smith
The pick of the quarter finals in terms of the league table is the last one on Thursday when the man currently in third place in the standings, Nathan Aspinall, goes up against a Michael Smith who is chasing a top four spot over the last two nights of action.
Aspinall currently leads Smith by three points with van Gerwen in between so if he wins this match then he has pretty much secured his spot at the o2 but should he lose this one he is likely to face Smith again next week needing to win it to get back to the finals. Smith is in the much more simpler position of knowing that he has to win somewhere along the line else his show will be over next week. These two have played twice this season and Aspinall has won them both but they have both been tight encounters. Given what is on this one it is hard to see this being any different so over 9.5 legs at odds against appeals in this one. Smith comes into this one off the back of winning a Players Championship event earlier in the week while Aspinall has been in good touch for a while. I like this one to go 6-4 or 6-5 either way.
Night 15 Betting
As ever we have a market on the winner of the evening and with a draw that is pretty well balanced it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. We have the two favourites for the event already through to the next stage of the competition so the motivation will be with the others to push on and pick up the win that they need to get themselves either at the o2 or give them a chance of qualifying next week. That might open the door to the supposed lesser lights.
I’m not going to bet on this week because I’m not completely sure that the draw opens up in the way I would want it to but the fact that Michael Smith plays Nathan Aspinall in a quarter final with one of them guaranteed to make the semi-final it might be worth having a bit on them to win the night in the hope that the winner carries momentum through with them. That pays at least 5/1 but they will probably need to beat Luke Humphries in the semi-final with the crowd against them. I’ll sit the night betting out.
Tips
Back P.Wright’s 3 dart average vs L.Littler – Over 92.5 for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365
Back N.Aspinall vs M.Smith – Over 9.5 legs for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Betfair
