The eyes of the racing world are on France on Sunday when a number of the leading horses in racing head to Longchamp for one of the standout features of the year as the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe is raced in front of a huge audience.
This race is always a feature in any season and is as high profile a race as there is at this time of year. 20 runners go to post and after looking through the race card we have come up with a couple of selections.
3.05 Longchamp
Preview
One of the biggest races of the season takes place over in France today with the mile and a half Group 1 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. Admittedly, it would have been even more eagerly awaited had Baaeed taken his place but it’s still a top class race. A big field of 20 has assembled and I’d argue that you probably need 3 things in your bag to land the contest; proven form over the trip, a low to middle draw, and an ability to handle the very soft ground.
Favourites
Aiden O’Brien saddles the favourite in Luxembourg & his career record is pretty impressive having won 5 out of 6, his only defeat coming in the 2000 Guineas. He battled well to win the Irish Champion Stakes last time out too but this is his first venture beyond a mile & a quarter, and that has to be a slight concern. Vadeni was 3rd behind Luxembourg over in Ireland but this French Derby winner has similar trip question marks. With the much maligned Christophe Soumillion aboard after the elbowing incident earlier in the week, I think Vadeni would be an unpopular winner.
Contenders
It’s crazy to think that Sir Mark Prescott has an Arc runner & more so, one with a massive chance in the shape of Alpinista. The likeable mare is now a 5 year old & in her last 2 campaigns she has a perfect 7 from 7 record including 5 Group 1s. Three of those wins have been in Germany so arguably this is a step up but her last 2 victories were in good events in the shape of the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud & the Yorkshire Oaks. Form on the ground & over this trip, along with a nice draw in 6, gave her a great chance but odds of around 11/2 looks plenty short enough. Japanese contenders are always interesting & Titleholder is no exception. He’s won his last 3 with the most recent pair being in fine style. He could be anything but racing in Europe is a different ball game & I’d be worried over the deep ground here.
Last year’s shock winner Torquator Tasso is back to defend his crown. It’s a massive ask from stall 18 & I’ve been slightly disappointed with his form this term. Last time out, the first time that today’s jockey Frankie Dettori has ridden him, he was narrowly beaten by Mendocino in a German Group 1. That rival reopposes today & must be given some sort of a chance from an inside draw at almost 4 times the price. The main concern being he’s been turned over 3 times already this year in France & again some of today’s rivals. My belief is that this won’t be a day for Germany. Westover has a squeak but I’m not sure of the strength of his Irish Derby win, nor am I certain he’ll relish the ground, whilst I like the improving nature of Al Hakeem’s form & he hails from a really dangerous yard but the trip could find him out.
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Betting
Of the ones mentioned, I’m most worried about Al Hakeem. However, I’m going with 2 here, 1 that is well fancied & one that’s a shot in the dark at much bigger odds. The main bet is Onesto, a horse with proven Group 1 form, proven form over the trip & one who relishes this ground. He was admittedly only 5th in the French Derby behind both Vadeni & Al Hakeem but, having been behind early, stayed on well without ever having the pace to get there. On that evidence, he needed a longer trip & got that next time up when landing the Grand Prix De Paris. Even then, he perhaps needed a little further or deeper ground, one of which he gets today, but the performance was decent nevertheless as the subsequent winners of the Prix Niel & the St Leger were behind. His last run, however, backed up the improvement this horse has continued to show as he ran Luxembourg to half a length in the Irish Champion Stakes. That was arguably the deepest race of the year over a middle distance trip & the pair came clear of rivals including Vadeni, Mishriff, Alenquer & Broome. At one point it looked like the selection would hold on but in a sustained duel, the speed of Luxembourg came to the fore. Over an extra 2 furlongs, I’m hoping Stephane Pasquier will be able to turn the tables & double figure odds seem fairly generous. He’s drawn 11 which always looks perfect as he isn’t too wide but shouldn’t get boxed in for one that will probably be held up.
At a bigger price, I’m also happy to have a little on Sealiway. He was 5th in this last year & on that evidence has a great chance but his price is based on a poor run of form this term. That said, I feel he has excuses & he could be a different proposition today. If you look at last year, he was 2nd in the French Derby, 5th in the Arc & won the Champion Stakes; that form would be good enough to have him vying for favouritism here. This year, however, he’s run 5 times but has yet to get into the winners enclosure. The dirt track in Riyadh didn’t suit on his first run & since then he’s finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th & 4th in 4 small field races (6 runners maximum). In each run, he’s looked like more cover & a longer trip would suit, whilst his best run came when the ground was truly soft. Conditions will be different today with a big field in his favour whilst the softer the ground the better. Admittedly, he has plenty to prove but, if one can get in the mix at a bigger price, he’s the one I like.
Tips
Back Onesto (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Sealiway (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-5)
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