The first major of the year is in the books and now we head back to regular PGA Tour fayre when the stars head to South Carolina for the RBC Heritage, the traditional post-Masters tournament but one which is elevated in status this year.
The tournament was big enough for Jordan Spieth last year when he took down the title but if he is going to retain it he is going to have to see off a much stronger and deeper field with this event now a designated one.
Recent Winners
2022 – Jordan Spieth
2021 – Stewart Cink
2020 – Webb Simpson
2019 – CT Pan
2018 – Satoshi Kodaira
2017 – Wesley Bryan
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Jim Furyk
2014 – Matt Kuchar
2013 – Graeme McDowell
The Course
It is Harbour Town Golf Links which stages the tournament again this year. The course is a par 71 which only stretches 7,191 yards so it is certainly not a long track by modern standards. The tournament remains in its post-Masters home and will welcome some of the best players in the world to a course which can play very tough when the wind is up, which can be quite regular with this course not too far from the coast.
There is no secret that accuracy is the key here although not necessarily off the tee where the landing zones for those who don’t get greedy are wide and generous. It is into the small greens where the fun and games come along so pure ball strikers and excellent iron players should work their way to the top of the staking plan. We should also remember that this is quite an exposed layout so players who can handle a bit of wind should be kept to the forefront of our minds. Bombers aren’t necessarily needed here although there are one or two holes where length is no bad thing.
The Field
We are beginning to get used to these designated events now after a run of them prior to The Masters and we have the latest one of them this week. That means that the newly crowned Masters champion Jon Rahm will have the chance to add the Plaid Jacket to the Green Jacket he secured at Augusta last week. Jordan Spieth won the title last year and he’ll be looking for another Plaid Jacket to add to his collection.
When Rahm won The Masters he overtook Scottie Scheffler as the world number one but the Phoenix Open champion will be teeing it up looking to get the top spot back. Patrick Cantlay came in for a fair bit of criticism for his slow play last week so might have more attention on him here than he might normally have. Other leading names teeing it up this week include Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele and Max Homa.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler will be looking to regain that number one spot in the rankings and he is the 17/2 favourite to win the tournament. Scheffler tees it up for the first time here which has to be an immediate negative. He didn’t really put up the defence he would have wanted last week but I highlighted ahead of the tournament that Masters champions have more of their time taken up in the lead up to their title defence than any other so I wouldn’t oppose him on that but he is a touch short when you consider he is on debut here.
Jon Rahm is a best price 10/1 to add this title to The Masters one he won last week. It was clearly an emotional win for the Spaniard, as you would expect when he won the most prestigious tournament on what would have been the birthday of his hero. Rahm played here in 2020 but could only finish T33. Clearly he is a much better player now and arrives here in the form of his life having won four titles in 2023 already. Last week has to have taken plenty out of him though and I’ll leave him be this week.
Patrick Cantlay will go off around about a 12/1 shot to win a title he has done everything but win in the past. He has teed it up here on five occasions and finished in the top seven on four different times but I’m always a little reluctant to get involved with anyone who is carrying negative press around with them, which Cantlay is after last week. That final round is another negative but it is hard to argue against his record here. I’ll tentatively leave him out of the staking plan.
There is only one player shorter than 20/1 and that is Collin Morikawa. The two-time major champion was solid enough at The Masters last week without ever really being able to get himself into full contention. He has teed it up here for the last three years and was T7 in 2021 although he finished a few shots behind eventual winner Stewart Cink. It is no surprise that Morikawa has been in the top 10 here before because few hit their iron shots better than him. He isn’t one to dismiss lightly.
Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week. Anyone who wants a third because this is the only tournament my pick would be Cameron Young but he just isn’t quite big enough for a man who has never won this level. Collin Morikawa is shorter in the betting than Young but he has won two majors and regularly contends for big events. This tournament is absolutely perfect for him. He is among the most accurate off the tee without having to pound the ball to get the best out of his game and then with an iron in his hand he can stand the test of most if not everyone in the game. Clearly it is with the putter where his issues can come up but Spieth won this tournament with a shocking record on the greens last year and you wouldn’t call the likes of Satoshi Kodaira, CT Pan or Webb Simpson exceptional putters. Poor putters can win this if they excel with the irons and Morikawa usually nails that department. Even at 18/1 he’s a standout bet here.
Matthew Fitzpatrick missed the cut here last year but he was T4 the year before which bettered two top 15 finishes earlier in his career here. The Sheffield star has made no secret of how much he likes this course. Usually he comes here after a disappointing Masters but the fact he finished in the top 10 at Augusta last week should mean that he is coming in here with a much better feeling about life and I think we’ll see that play out in this tournament. Fitzpatrick is notoriously good off the tee and into the greens but unlike some with that profile he is usually a very good putter too. I expect to see him go very well this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders who very much fit the ball striking category. Tom Hoge actually leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach this season and with the landing zones off the tee quite friendly for those who don’t pound the ball that statistic should mean plenty this week. Hoge doesn’t necessarily have the best record around here but he certainly hasn’t been striping his irons to the extent that he has done this season. Hoge has four top 10s on the season, the last of which was at The Players Championship where the field was elite like this one. Hoge missed the cut last week but given how frenetic the final day became after the waterlogging of the course on Saturday I’m not sure that is a massive negative. One of Hoge’s top 10s was in Hawaii while he has won at Pebble Beach so an exposed track isn’t going to worry him. I think he is a big price this week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is another who catches my eye this week. He doesn’t have the length to contend on easy or long PGA Tour tracks but this ones where the skill is in the striking of the ball rather than the pounding of it he can certainly be competitive. He has only played here twice and was T28 and T33 which isn’t anything special but at least he has a feeling for the course now. As a South African we know any wind which blows won’t be an issue for him. Bezuidenhout has three top 20s on the season so far but we’re only now getting towards the courses which suit him. At 100/1 I think he is overpriced.
Aaron Rai sits at 17 on the ball striking list on the PGA Tour this season and he is there courtesy of ranking 14 in greens in regulation which is the big thing this week. Rai isn’t the best putter in the world and that has held him back on this side of the pond but he sits in the top 10 for driving accuracy so when you put the two long game departments together he should be setting up a lot of chances this week. Rai was in the top 10 in Houston this season and went round Sawgrass in 65 blows in the third round of The Players Championship recently. The other negative to an often cold putter is this is the first time Rai has been in the field here but this course really does suit him nicely and if he can find something on the greens he could soon outrun his price.
Tips
Back C.Morikawa to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Hoge to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Rai to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back C.Bezuidenhout to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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