Five of the best days of horse racing anywhere on the globe begins on Tuesday when the 2019 Royal Ascot meeting gets underway at the Berkshire track. Every race at the meeting is competitive and top class and given that we have given our Royal Ascot previews a slightly different twist this year.
For the first time we are going to split our daily previews into two – a Group 1 post and then a post previewing the other races each day. We will also provide a placepot pick as well so the best Royal Ascot betting experience is right here.
Here are our previews of the three big Group 1 races on Tuesday’s card:
2.30 Royal Ascot: Queen Anne Stakes
Preview
To start, we have a very open looking Queen Anne Stakes, a Group 1 race for the champion milers where 16 runners do battle.
There’s a couple of interesting stats here. Firstly, 4 year olds have landed 7 of the last 10 runnings of the race with the other 3 winners all coming from overseas and being 5 year olds. Secondly, the Lockinge has been a key trial although it’s not that often that the winner of that follows up here.
Favourites
The Lockinge angle is going to narrow the field too much with over half the field today coming from that race, including the first 5 home. Sir Michael Stoute’s Mustashry won that race by over 2 lengths, quickening up well but that was his 2nd run of the year whilst many of his rivals were making their seasonal reappearance. His yard were also flying then, not so much now, whilst age (6 year old) is a negative.
Instead, the chances of Laurens seem more obvious. Her trainer said she’ll come on for the run and this high class filly is a winner of 4 Group 1’s to date. Whilst she’ll go well, there’s a slight doubt that she’s only run at Ascot once finishing down the field, albeit the ground was probably on the soft side.
Contenders
Last year’s 1st and 2nd in this race both ran in the Lockinge with Accidental Agent 3rd and Lord Glitters towards the rear. The former has a great record at Ascot but it’s tough to win a race of this nature once, let alone twice. Romanised, winner of last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas, was 4th at Newbury but it’ll be tough for him to repeat that effort whilst Le Brivido, 5th in the Lockinge, won the Jersey at the Royal meeting 12 months ago and is the hope of Aiden O’Brien. He didn’t get a clear run in the Lockinge but is now a 5 year old, with the price having gone too.
The concern here is that formlines are all over the place and there are all capable of beating each other. Of the others, Barney Roy was a top class 3 year old and his price is reflective of what he achieved then rather than what he’s capable of now whilst Hazapour is a dark horse being Dermot Weld’s only runner at Ascot this week and is now the mount of Frankie Dettori. He’s 2 from 2 over this trip but was well fancied for last year’s Derby and may now have the pace to see off this field.
Betting
In such an opening race, it’s worth going for one at a big each way price and that comes in the form of French raider Olmedo. He’s a 4 year old so fits the age profile and looks to have been brought along steadily by his trainer with this race the season’s aim. The key to his chances is a fast pace and it’s almost guaranteed in straight track races at this meeting. Most of his defeats have come as a result of him pulling hard but, even then, he’s run several good races.
He’s only raced 3 times in fields over 10 runners or more and has won the 2 that have been around this trip. The first was his debut where he skipped clear to win a 16 runner race by over 4 lengths. The next time he ran in a decent sized field, the French 2000 Guineas last year, he beat Hey Gaman and having that Group 1 winner tick is a major plus. He disappointed in the French Derby but 10 furlongs stretched him and he was leading with a quarter of a mile to go that day.
This season he’s run twice, finishing 1 length 4th in a Group 3 when pulling very hard in a 6-strong field and then improved to finish a neck 2nd to Plumatic in a Group 2 where again the small field and lack of pace went against him. Conditions appears to be in his favour today and if he settles well, that turn of foot he possesses could prove a big asset in the closing stages. At a big each way price, he’s our first bet of the week.
Tips
Back Olmedo (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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3.40 Royal Ascot: King’s Stand Stakes
Preview
The champion speedsters go to war in the 5 furlong Group 1 King’s Stand where the field of 12 is headed by last year’s 1-2-3 in Blue Point, Battash and Mabs Cross. They too head the betting for this year’s renewal suggesting not much has changed in the last 12 months.
Favourites
12 of the last 14 winners of this race finished 1st or 2nd last time out and in this field, only 4 of them can bring that form to the table, including the front 2 in the market, Battash and Blue Point.
Arguably, Charlie Hills’ horse Battash is the fastest sprinter in Europe but he doesn’t always produce and could manage only 2nd in this last year before twice finishing behind Mabs Cross later in the year. It’s easy to draw the conclusion that he goes better after a break, highlighted by his reappearance win in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. Slightly offputting is the form of the stable with Hills having only saddled 1 winner in the last 14 days from 28 runners, with 22 of those starting at odds of 8/1 or less so they’ve not exactly gone unfancied.
Contenders
Blue Point won this last year and would be the most solid selection in a bid to find the winner. He’s a consistent sort and loves this track having won 3 of his 4 starts here. He’s also won all 3 races he’s contested this year but they’ve all been over at Meydan where he’s started at odds on each time. He does have an almost 3 month absence from the track to overcome but that’s not the biggest worry. More concerning is that each of the front 3 in the market can and do beat each other with Blue Point having finished behind Mabs Cross in last year’s Nunthorpe.
Mabs Cross had a very good season last term and has continued in a similar vein this year. After his 3rd in this 12 months ago, he was 2nd in the Nunthorpe and then won the Prix De L’Abbaye. This year, he won the Palace House on his seasonal reappearance but was then a few lengths behind Battash in the Temple Stakes.
Imprimis is the US challenger and is 2 from 2 this year but looks to be below top class whilst Sergei Prokofiev and Soldiers Call are 3 years olds and must improve, but it’s conceivable they could do. Equilateral just failed in Palace House behind Mabs Cross but is now 7lbs worse off and has that Charlie Hills stable form worry hanging over him. The others don’t look good enough.
Betting
In summary, it really depends who is on a going day but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a repeat of last year where Blue Point finished in front of Battash and Mabs Cross. However, this is the one race where there doesn’t appear to be any value so we’ll let this race pass without a bet.
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4.20 Royal Ascot: St James Palace Stakes
Preview
A select field of 11 head out for this 1 mile Group 1 for the 3 year old colts. Unlike the Queen Anne, this is run on the round course.
This is a race to stick with fancied runners with 7 of the last 10 winners starting as favourite and the other 3 winners all reasonably well fancied too. 5 of this field are priced at 20/1 or bigger so, instead, we’ll focus on the 6 priced at around 10/1 or less. Classic form is also a big positive with placed form in either English, Irish and French Guineas important as only 1 of the last 10 winners didn’t finish in the top 4 in one of those races. That horse, incidentally, was last year’s winner Without Parole who was also the only winner in the last 30 years not to have contested a Group 1 before coming here.
Favourites
The favourite is the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas, Phoenix Of Spain. On that run, he’s a worthy favourite but there’s a concern that the winner dictated the pace and the form may not prove reliable. It was his seasonal reappearance and he should come on for the run but the chances of him dictating this are slim given that half of the field are rivals for the lead here. Furthermore, 2 of his 3 defeats in his 6 race career came against his 2 main market rivals, Too Darn Hot and King Of Comedy, and he’s from the yard of Charlie Hills whose form has already been mentioned.
Too Darn Hot was the champion 2 year old and looks to be on his way back after a setback putting him out of the 2000 Guineas. He ran in the Dante and could only manage 2nd behind Telecaster who subsequently disappointed in the Derby. He was then stepped back in trip to run Phoenix Of Spain to 3 lengths when 2nd in the Irish 2000. He’s not to be dismissed but the price looks a little skinny.
Contenders
John Gosden runs another and that is King Of Comedy who has plotted a very similar path to his winner from 12 months ago, Without Parole. He’s never run in a Group 1 but the thing most concerning is his quirkiness having had to be walked to the start last time out. The occasion could very well get to him although he does look open to bundles of improvement.
Aiden O’Brien has a good record in this race and his main hope appears to be Circus Maximus. The big question mark is whether he has the pace for a race of this nature having won the 10 furlong Dee Stakes and then running well in finishing 6th in the Derby. He likes to force the pace and will need to make this a real stamina test if he’s to land this. The French raider is Shaman who was 2nd in the French 2000 on heavy ground. He won his previous 3 starts but, as a 2 year old, was 5 lengths 5th to Royal Marine who comes here as one of the outsiders.
Betting
The only other runner below the 20/1 mark is Skardu who has finished in the first 4 in both the English and Irish 1 mile classics this term. He’s still lightly raced having only seen the racetrack 4 times and still appears to be improving.
On his sole 2 year old run, he won a maiden at 33/1 where the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all won next time out. The first 4 came over 10 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He then started this season by winning the Craven where Royal Marine, the horse that beat Shaman by 5 lengths as a 2 year old, was 3 lengths back in 4th.
In the English Classic, he finished 3rd but effectively won his race as the 1st and 2nd raced in a small group of 3 on the opposite side of the track. In the Irish equivalent, a change of tactics were employed and he raced up with the pace. That backfired as he faded late on having held every chance at the furlong pole. He was less than a length behind Too Darn Hot despite the race not being run to suit yet he comes here at over 3 times the price. There’s sure to be a fast pace here and he’ll be held up to come with a late run. Add to that the form of his yard with William Haggas having 11 winners in the last 14 days, 5 of those from his last 8 runners, he looks to hold a very solid each way chance.
Tips
Back Skardu (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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