We have reached the penultimate day of the Royal Ascot meeting and after landing a winner on Thursday we are hoping to remain in profit on Friday. As we have done all week so far we will split our preview of the action into two posts.
There are two Group 1 races on the card and a Group 2 which we will go through in this post with the other three races on a competitive schedule coming along in another post. The Coronation Stakes is the highlight on the fourth day of the meeting and that is one of the races we will preview here.
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3.05 Royal Ascot: King Edward VII Stakes
Preview
The 3 year old boys head to post for this Group 2 over the Derby distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs. There’s a small field of 8 runners and 5 of those have formlines with Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, 3 behind him in the Derby itself and 2 more behind in the Lingfield Derby trial that he landed.
Favourites
Japan is the short priced favourite based on his half length 3rd in the Derby. However, he seemed to act well on track that day and may have been flattered, which certainly seems the case judged on his previous run, a 5L 4th in the Dante at York.
The next 2 in the market have no Anthony Van Dyck formlines. Private Secretary is 3 from 3 this year and has improved run on run, narrowly winning a Listed race last time out whilst Fondus has a similar profile having won his last 2, albeit both in novice company. That said, he dotted up by 5 lengths last time under a 7lb penalty so every chance he’ll show the required improvement.
Pablo Escobarr ran Anthony Van Dyck to 2 lengths in the Lingfield Derby trial but that was on genuine soft ground and drying ground may not suit.
The other two further back in the Epsom Classic are led by Humanitarian who stayed on reasonably well into 7th without ever threatening.
Betting
However, the one I like is Bangkok who was 2nd to last that day. I’m prepared to forgive him that run as he pulled hard, didn’t come down the hill at all well and was unbalanced in the straight. Basically he didn’t handle the track. He was however well fancied, going off at 9/1 whilst Japan and Humanitarian went off at 20/1 and bigger so if we ignore the form on account of the track, he’s certainly in with a shout.
He’s better judged on his run in a Sandown Group 3, a stiff track similar to this where he came clear and ran on strongly to score by just under 2 lengths. It’s also worth noting that he beat Telecaster in a maiden first time up this term, and that’s the horse who handed that 5 length beating to Japan in the Dante.
Admittedly, he has work to do but looks a crazy price on a track that should suit. The drying ground is in his favour too.
Tips
PLACED – Back Bangkok (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
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3.40 Royal Ascot: Commonwealth Cup
Favourites
A surprisingly small field of 9 for this Group 1 for 3 year olds over 6 furlongs.
Aiden O’Brien again saddles the favourite with Ten Sovereigns, a horse that went off favourite for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on his last run. He was 3 from 3 as juvenile, all at this trip, including the Group 1 Middle Park where he beat Jash by half a length. He didn’t stay the mile in the Guineas and back over a suitable trip should go close but he’s priced as such.
Jash, who was 2nd in the Middle Park, is 2nd favourite with that race being his only defeat to date. He won a Listed race over 7 furlongs on his return and that might be his trip so I’d worry he may get outpaced although his form is hard to knock.
Contenders
Advertise, like Ten Sovereigns, ran in the Guineas and didn’t stay but, of more concern, was the fact he never travelled. He definitely has something to prove but a return to his juvenile form where he won a Group 1, a Group 2 and finished behind Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst and Calyx in the Coventry over course and distance would put him firmly in the mix.
Talking of Calyx, Hello Youmzain beat that horse in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock so has a major chance here but the question is the wellbeing of Calyx that day who is now injured.
Betting
In an intriguing race, the pick is Hamdan Al Maktoum’s 2nd string, Khaadem. He’s a lightly raced sort who needs to improve but has the potential to. He was 3rd on debut behind Calyx when he was struck into but has done nothing wrong since in winning his next 3.
He won 2 small races as a 2 year old but did it well both time and then stepped up to Listed company when landing the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury on his return. That day, he travelled well before asserting to win a shade cosily. He has improved on each start, recording a Topspeed comparable with many of his rivals today.
He’s sure to improve again, will come on for his seasonal reappearance and good ground with a bit of ease underfoot is ideal. A nice each way price in this small field.
Tips
Back Khaadem (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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4.20 Royal Ascot: Coronation Stakes
Favourites
Another Group 1, this time for 3 year old fillies over a mile on the round course. Yet again, we have a single figure field with 9 facing the starter.
Aiden O’Brien runs 3, including the hot favourite and dual 1000 Guineas winner Hermosa. She looks hard to beat judged on her 2 front running wins and will be hard to pass if repeating her 4 length beating of Pretty Pollyanna in the Irish Classic. However, odds-on isn’t a price I’m interested in.
Pretty Pollyanna reopposes and although she’ll come on for that run, 4 lengths is a lot to make up especially on easier ground, something she is unaccustomed to.
Contenders
There are 2 French challengers in Castle Lady, winner of the French 1000 Guineas, and Watch Me who was 6th in the same race. The former has won all 3 starts this term, improving each time and whilst the form isn’t the strongest, there’s every chance she’ll do better again. It’s hard to see Watch Me reversing the form.
It would be no surprise to see O’Brien’s other 2, Happen and Just Wonderful, run well at big prices but our bet is one of the more fancied runners.
Betting
Jubiloso is the selection and she hails from the excellent yard of Sir Michael Stoute. Let’s be clear, she’s priced on potential only but there’s every reason to suggest she’s up to landing a race of this calibre.
Firstly, Sir Michael doesn’t rush his horses so he wouldn’t have put her in here unless he thought she had a serious shot. Secondly, she’s bred to be top class being out of Shamardal whilst her dam is a half sister to the best horse I’ve ever seen, Frankel. Finally, her stable is hitting top form at the meeting; since Mustashry’s disappointment in the opening race of the meeting, his results in Group races have been 1-2-4-1-4.
On the track, she’s won 2 from 2. The first was a 6 furlong Chelmsford maiden where she quickened up well having looked in trouble off the final bend but the most impressive performance was the Newbury novice she won over 7 furlongs where she travelled supremely well at the head of affairs before coming clear by 7 lengths eased down. The jockey never got serious and she could have won by more if she wanted, I’m sure of that.
We’ll find out today just how good she is and I firmly believe she is a star in the making. She looks an each way bet to nothing.
Tips
PLACED – Back Jubiloso (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 6.50 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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