The card for the penultimate day of Royal Ascot 2023 includes three handicap races on Friday and after we landed an 18/1 winner of a handicap on Thursday they are very much betting propositions which appeal to us.
As has been the case all week, the fields are very deep in these handicap races so just like we did on Thursday we are going double handed in all three in the hope of nailing them and building on the profit we have built up already.
3.40 Royal Ascot
Preview
Again, we have 3 handicaps to get stuck into and again, we are going double handed in each given the competitiveness with the first being the Duke of Edinburgh over a mile and a half. As we saw on Thursday, it can be a rough passage for those drawn low so flipping the draw on its head is often not a bad strategy. Okita Soushi is the favourite and is drawn ok in stall 9 but he really doesn’t appeal to me. His 2 recent wins have been on the all weather and he’s raced over a variety of trips; I don’t feel the yard has found the key to this horse yet and I’m not sure a big handicap at Royal Ascot will help on that front. Teumessias Fox has been well touted for this having won both his starts this year but his draw in 6 is perhaps more of a concern than a 7lbs rise in the weights.
Betting
Live Your Dream – Saaed Bin Suroor runs 3 in this and this is a yard with 8 winners from just 35 runners this calendar year in Britain so anything he runs has to be feared. The selection was a progressive type back in 2021 when he won 3 including a heritage handicap at Newmarket, After a near two year absence, he came back to run the progressive Cumulonimbus to half a length at Haydock which was even better than the bare form given the winner was able to dictate the tempo leading all the way. In another half a furlong, the selection would probably have got up too so the fact he’ll strip fitter and has just a 2lbs higher mark looks lenient. He’s got a nice draw in 18 and Louis Steward is replaced by Danny Tudhope who rides Ascot well and I expect a very bold showing.
Nagano – Whilst we are talking about near 2 year absences, why not through this one into the mix? An absence of 664 days perhaps isn’t the best prep for this but the yard is bullish over his chances and if any yard can get one ready, it’s this one. Cast your mind back a few years when Roger Varian had 4 winners at this meeting and all of them had been off the track for 7 months or more. Form wise, he has plenty of recommend too; he won 3 in 2021 including a handicap off 94 before being narrowly denied in a Group 3 on his most recent start, going down by just a head. He also finished 6th of 17 at this meeting in a handicap over the same distance where he was inconvenienced by the draw yet still looked like the most likely winner until he was very badly hampered under a furlong out. He had no time to re-gather his momentum yet still plugged on well to finish just 2 lengths down at the line. Drawn in 13, I’m hoping for a clearer passage and provided he’s fit and ready to go, he should be in the final reckoning.
Tips
Back Live Your Dream (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Nagano (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back them here:
5.00 Royal Ascot
Preview
It’s the turn of the 3 year old fillies to charge down the straight mile in the Sandringham and the first question is, how do you solve a 30 runner handicap with a host of unexposed types at a track where, this week, the draw has been impossible to predict. Well, I’ve given it a good go; let’s just hope I have the answer. The Gosden’s, with the assistance of Dettori in the saddle, have the favourite in Coppice who has won both her starts in novice company on the all weather but flopped in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn on turf when 10th of 15 despite going off favourite. O’Brien and Moore are her nearest market rivals and they rely on Jackie Oh who was 5th in the Irish 1000 Guineas so definitely has claims if she’s drawn ok in a high stall of 28. Hugo Palmer suggests Chelsea Green is his best chance of a winner and Johnny Murtagh backs off his ITV duties to saddle Clounmacon with the top US jockey John R Velazquez taking the ride.
Betting
Girl Racer – William Haggas, after a handicap winner on Day 3, has just the one runner on the card today and we are keeping him onside as his sole representative looks to have an outstanding chance. In her 3 career starts, she won on debut on the all weather quickening up in nice style to come home 3 lengths to the good before finishing 6th in the Nell Gwyn, 4 places ahead of the today’s favourite Coppice. She took a keen hold that day and didn’t have the best of runs but stayed on well close home and, over an extra furlong (which she’ll get here), would probably have got up for 2nd. That was enough to send her off as an odds on favourite last time but she stumbled out of the stalls and was on her knees so it was to her credit that she was in there pitching inside the final furlong eventually finishing 4th of 7. That exit from the stalls would have been enough for most to pull their mount up so I’m nowhere near disheartened by her being overturned at odds-on. She looks like she’ll relish this extra furlong and should find improvement on this better ground so rates as a solid each way bet.
Marksman Queen – Unexposed and progressive would be an ideal way to describe the selection here. She comes here after 3 starts on the all weather and she looks to be markedly on the upgrade. She won her first 2 in novice company and the form of those is working out well but it was her last run, when 2nd to an all the way winner, that stands out. She raced keenly, was held up in rear and was poorly positioned when the race began in earnest but she made eyecatching progress to finish and was closing all the way to the line. The yard is one of the shrewdest around and they’ve secured the services of Hollie Doyle which could be telling off a featherweight of just 8st6lbs. Unlike many of her other rivals who have been hammered by the handicapper for past good performances, she’s been handed just a 2lbs higher mark and given her RPR in that last run was 4lbs above her current mark, she should run well if translating her all weather form to the turf (which is normally the case at Ascot).
Tips
Back Girl Racer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-8)
Back Marksman Queen (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-8)
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6.10 Royal Ascot
Preview
A relatively new addition to the Royal Ascot schedule is the Palace of Holyroodhouse, a 5 furlong cavalry charge for 3 year olds. George Boughey’s Conquistador and Andrew Balding’s Frankness are both last time out winners and probably deserve their place at the head of the market but there are no shortage of challengers including Tatterstall who won at Epsom on Derby day and Jer Batt who has been progressing nicely. The problem with all is the higher marks they have to contend with in what’s almost certainly better company.
Betting
Harry Brown – An ultra consistent gelding, the selection has yet to finish out of the first 3 in all 10 career starts, winning 3 of them. Since progressing out of maiden company, he’s finished 3-1-1 in a trio of all weather handicaps off marks of 80 (twice) and 85. Off a revised mark of 87 switched to turf last time out at Goodwood, he ran a cracker to finish 3rd of 9 where he was unsuited by the way the race unfolded. He travelled strongly towards the front of the pack and was going best of all but it favoured the hold up horses so it was to his credit he was so close at the line. The result of that was that the handicapper has left his mark on 87 and that might just be the thing that tips the scales in his favour. Not many jockeys ride the straight track better than Hayley Turner and I’m hopeful that David Simcock’s gelding will provide her with her second winner of the week.
Clearpoint – If he’s not inconvenienced by his draw in 1 and the return to faster ground, I genuinely cannot see a scenario where he finishes out of the frame. On debut last year, he scooted up in a novice event at Ayr on good to firm ground before following up on the all weather at Newcastle. That prompted his trainer to say he was a potential superstar and one of the best he had. His campaign, thereafter, was interrupted; he missed Ascot as he scoped badly and then ran a bit flat in the Group 2 Gimcrack. Next on the agenda was a trip to France for a Listed event where again he underperformed but the ground was pretty deep that day. On his one start this term, at Thirsk, he ran a cracker when 5th of 13. However, a high draw was a massive positive with the first 6 home drawn 10-12-14-13-6-9, our selection being the one drawn in 6. You could argue that he won ‘his race’, the one of the low drawn runners and what’s interesting is that the next 2 home both won next time out dropped 1lb and 2lbs respectively. The selection is dropped 1lb so, with that form holding up, he’s sure to go well at a nice each way price.
Tips
Back Harry Brown (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Clearpoint (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back them here:
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