The biggest and best race meeting in the world gets underway on Tuesday as five spectacular days of racing at Royal Ascot begins as the sport once again showcases itself to the world, finally under blues skies and sunshine.
The feature race on the opening day of the meeting is the St James’ Palace Stakes. That is one of three Group 1 races on the card. We have studied the opening day in full and a number of bets have jumped out at us.
2.30 Royal Ascot: Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
The opener is a real puzzle. The Lockinge form is hard to fathom & it’s arguably a question of whether that win for Audience was a fluke or not. Add to that the fact many of the market leaders might prefer a bit of cut in the ground & it makes it hard to resist a big priced fancy in the first race of the week. That leads me to throwing a dart at Hi Royal who was 5th in the Lockinge but who didn’t help his chances by being difficult in the stalls & not quite breaking as well as he may have liked. That said, he ran well enough in 5th & can be expected to improve for the fitting of first time blinkers. His form, admittedly, hasn’t been good enough recently but he was 2nd in last season’s 2000 Guineas & then backed it up when 3rd to Paddington in the Irish equivalent. He could arguably be marked down as a tad unlucky in the latter of those 2 runs too. Interestingly, he finished in front of Charyn & Royal Scotsman in both of those runs with them both trading shorter today, Charyn at just 4/1. If we see a return to form, especially on ground that will suit him more than most, he looks too big a price to ignore.
Tips
Back Hi Royal (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 23.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-4)
3.05 Royal Ascot: Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
23 runners. Straight field cavalry charge over 6 furlongs. 2 year olds. What’s not to like? Seriously, this is all about potential with over half the field coming here off the back of a win last time out. Claims can be made for several but The Actor is our selection. A neck 2nd on debut over 5 furlongs, he ran well & finished as though a step up in trip would be a help. That said, he again ran over the same trip next time out when winning a 7 runner race at HQ despite being unruly at the start. That form stacks up better than anything else in this field with 4 of the 5 to have run since coming out & winning. He has the highest Topspeed figure in the field & his trainer rates him highly too. If he sharpens up mentally & isn’t overawed by the occasion, he’s sure to be in the frame with the extra furlong to suit & given what he’s done so far on the track. He looks overpriced.
Tips
Back The Actor (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
3.45 Royal Ascot: King Charles III Stakes (Group 1)
It’s all about the speedsters over the minimum trip here & the big question is whether we have a genuine sprint superstar in the form of Big Evs. We’re just not sure so, at current odds, he has to be opposed & the one we like is Rogue Lightning. He disappointed in the Temple Stakes at Haydock & finished behind a couple of these but there were excuses. The soft ground was against him, he was slow to break, seemed to need his first run of the year & made his challenge on the wrong part of the track. Assuming we dismiss that run, his chances are there for all to see. Last term, he won a pair of handicaps including over course & distance before winning in Listed company. Stepped up to a Group 1, he was unlucky to finish 5th in the Abbaye in a bunch finish. He was dropped in from the widest stall & never quite got a clear passage but only finished a length down at the line. Better ground, a high draw & wider track should all play to his strengths & he’s likely to be finishing as well as any in an open looking Group 1.
Tips
Back Rogue Lightning (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
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4.25 Royal Ascot: St James Palace Stakes (Group 1)
The 3rd & final Group 1 of the day & it’s a race to observe rather than get involved in. With the 2000 Guineas 1-2 in Notable Speech & Rosalion renewing rivalry & the additional spice of Henry Longfellow bidding to recapture his 2 year old form, it really does look a 3 horse race & there’s no value whatsoever.
5.05 Royal Ascot: Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
The first handicap of the week, and the longest with a trip of two & a half miles. As expected, the jumps trainers dominate the market, with the Irish having a particularly strong hand. Going with 2 in this, we are taking one from each side of the Irish Sea, the first being Irish trained Nusret. Equally effective over hurdles as he is on the flat, he comes here with some nice form in the book. Rated 139 over hurdles, he was 2nd in a Grade 3 in December & in his one run this calendar, finished a fine 5th in a big field Listed handicap hurdle 6 weeks ago. His flat mark has been preserved somewhat since some decent form last term where he won a Curragh handicap cosily off 3lb lower. He failed to back that up next time out but the trip was against him as he was staying on well at the end over an inadequate 13 furlongs. He goes 7 furlongs further today & that might bring about the required improvement. His run in the Irish Cesarewitch can be ignored on account of the ground with all his wins coming on good ground. In a tight race, his mark is more than workable, his middle draw is perfect & the ground is just what he needs so we expect him to go close.
It’s pretty difficult to leave Temporize out of final calculations. A winner of the 17 runner Goodwood handicap last August proved his liking for this trip & a big field whilst his one run this term, again back at Goodwood, proved that this 7lbs higher mark isn’t beyond him when finishing a close 2nd to Pledgeofallegiance who had race fitness in his favour. A thorough stayer, his form over 2 miles or further in the last 2 years reads 2-2-1-0-3-2, he should go well with all ground coming the same to him & an eyecatching jockey booking. The yard seems very bullish about his chances & it’s hardly surprising as, when others have cried enough, he’ll be one of very few relishing the stiff Ascot finish. A good chance at a rewarding price.
Tips
Back Nusret (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Paddy Power (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Temporize (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 19.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-6)
5.40 Royal Ascot: Wolferton Stakes (Listed)
Ten furlongs await us for this Listed contest. Israr is top rated with a mark of 114 & should be in the mix for the Gosden’s who have the front 2 in the market, Torito being the one currently heading the betting. On ratings alone, Astro King has a huge chance being the second highest rated in the field & he’s the one we are keeping onside. Conditions have come right in that he loves fast ground & big fields, both of which he’ll get today. Last year, he was 2nd in the John Smith’s Cup before winning both the Sky Bet Finale at York & then the 31 runner Cesarewitch off top weight. He’s not been as good since but has been plying his trade in Group company, the best of his 4 runs being a close 2nd to Ottoman Fleet in the only Group 3 he faced (the other 3 being in Group 2’s). Down in grade, he should go well if his wider than ideal draw in 12 is no hindrance. All 3 of his turf wins have had firm in the going descriptions & with the yard in decent nick, he looks sure to go close in a hot looking event.
Tips
Back Astro King (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
6.15 Royal Ascot: Copper Horse (Handicap)
The second handicap of the day is still a fair trip with a mile & three-quarters in front of them. Mullins & Stoute dominate the market with Belloccio & Fox Journey set to do battle for favouritism. As with the first handicap, we’re going double handed, this time at massive prices. Northern raider Kihavah is a fair dual purpose horse who went through a purple patch last summer winning 4 on the spin, 3 of those on the flat. Off a revised mark just 1lb lower than todays, he then ran with credit when 2nd in a Heritage handicap at Newmarket over this trip behind the subsequent Ebor 3rd, Live Your Dream. He probably needed his first run since February when 4th back at HQ in May but ran a cracking race last time out when 2nd of 13 at York off this mark, only beaten by the favourite who came into the race in top form. His mark looks workable whilst the ground has come right too. The biggest concern is whether he can adopt a good early position from the inside stall but if he can, a big run can be expected.
This may look like a stupid bet but it’s hard to fathom why Lucander is the rank outsider of this bunch. A winner of 8 of his 40 races, this 7 year old has shown enough to suggest he retains plenty of ability. He’s been campaigned in Bahrain over the last 2 winters & form figures of 3-1-3-3-5 this winter are good enough for him to have a hand in the finish here. 12 months ago, he was 10th in the Duke of Edinburgh here but that was over a shorter trip & he was noted staying on at the finish, Only 4 lengths behind the winner that day, the run was better than the finishing position suggests & he’s 3lbs lower today. The one blip was his last run but connections were quick to blame the slow pace & soft ground; with a true pace almost guaranteed & ground on the fast side of good, it would be no surprise to see improvement over this trip & whilst he’s an unlikely winner, his odds make him worthy of small each way investment.
Tips
Back Kihavah (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Lucander (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 Sky Bet (⅕ odds 1-6)
