The Four Nations begins in Hull on Friday night with potentially the biggest mismatch of the tournament on paper as Australia take on Scotland in the first match. Australia are widely expected to dominate the tournament while Scotland are making up the numbers but it will be interesting to see how competitive Scotland are.
Australia
The world champions return to England looking to win this title to add to their world title and bookies certainly think they will do it. They continue to have a solid spine which is now so experienced that whoever is in charge of this side doesn’t have to tweak too much. It is a case of keeping the group fresh.
The Kangaroos know that this is their easiest match of the tournament and with two matches of much greater difficulty to come they will be aiming to go through their set plays and entertain and potentially run up the points and lay a marker down.
Scotland
The Scottish team showed two years ago in that World Cup that they are an improving force at this level and credit must go to them for making it as the fourth side in this tournament. They will gain plenty of experience from this tournament which they can take into next year’s World Cup with them.
It will be a hard three matches for Scotland but with Danny Brough in their side they had a man who can open up any defence even at this level and it will be interesting to see how much he can draw out of his teammates, some of whom play at Super League and NRL level and some who don’t. Getting the best out of them will be crucial.
Team News
Australia have named their side for this match and have decided to leave out some of their bigger players for the matches to come. Greg Inglis, Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott, Matt Gillett and Darius Boyd are all being rested with James Maloney, Justin O’Neill and Matt Moylan among those featuring.
Scotland have Wests Tigers centre Tyler Cassel in their squad and he is expected to feature. Wigan winger Lewis Tierney, Huddersfield’s Ryan Brierley and Warrington’s Matty Russell are some of the other Super League players in this side along with Brough.
Betting
I don’t think we need to waste too much time worrying about who is going to win this match. Australia will win the match but the big question is how many will they win it by. Bookmakers range between 40-46pts on the handicaps so they don’t really know for certain but I suspect the high end of those handicaps are on the high side.
Australia have rested a lot of their starting side and while those coming in are of a certain quality in terms of individual skill they are new to this level so the intensity will be new to them and their defensive line might not be as stable as it will be for the rest of the tournament so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scotland go over somewhere.
I fully expect Australia to win the game but when the priority is preparing for next week for the Kangaroos I think Scotland can stay close enough to ride the handicap to the end for us.
Tips
WON – Back Scotland (+46) to beat Australia for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Bwin
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