Less than four weeks after football got rerouted on its way home, another domestic campaign gets underway when the Sky Bet Championship begins on Friday evening with 24 teams once again dreaming of an elite campaign and the riches that could be the prize at the end of it.
Norwich City, Watford and Brentford achieved their dreams last season and another bunch of teams will battle it out in what is undoubtedly going to be a competitive term in the second tier, as it always seems to be in this league.
Recent Winners
2020-21 – Norwich City
2019-20 – Leeds United
2018-19 – Norwich City
2017-18 – Wolverhampton Wanderers
2016-17 – Newcastle United
2015-16 – Burnley
2014-15 – Bournemouth
2013-14 – Leicester City
2012-13 – Cardiff City
2011-12 – Reading
The Favourites
It is a rare event when a relegated team doesn’t head up the market for the title in this division and there is no change in that regard this term. Fulham will go off as the 11/2 jollies to win the league but when they never won it under Scott Parker a couple of seasons ago I’m not overly sure why they would suddenly win it under Marco Silva this time round. To be fair to Silva, the signing of Harry Wilson has the potential to be a good one but he’ll need to get Aleksandar Mitrovic on side. The big problem he could have is all the loans they had last term aren’t here this time around and they look like they lack a bit of depth, albeit with almost a month left to strengthen. They might look much better when the summer window closes but in the here and now they are not for me.
West Bromwich Albion will go off as the second favourites to win the league at 13/2. They did well to get rid of Sam Allardyce before they came down to this level and the recruitment of Valerien Ismael looks a good one. He has a direct style like Allardyce although there is a lot more energy in his sides, whether Albion have the fitness to pull off his style is another thing. Another concern would be that Matheus Pereira seemingly wants out and he would be a huge loss. I expect West Brom to be in the shake up but perhaps not title contenders.
Sheffield United were the other side relegated from the Premier League. They were so bad they were relegated a mile back but they didn’t appoint Slavisa Jokanovic until relatively late considering so it will be interesting how quickly their transition happens. I think they were surprise promotion winners when they went up and they had the excellent Chris Wilder and a settled system then. The more questionable Jokanovic and a potential new style of play opens up questions. They are 15/2 but they’re not for me.
Bournemouth are the leading lights in the betting market of those who were in the division last season. They are 9/1 to win the league and that looks a fair price now that they look to have settled down a bit. It was clear from an early stage that the appointment of Jason Tindall was a daft one and while replacing him with Jonathan Woodgate wasn’t a whole lot better, they did find some form and an identity under him. Scott Parker now takes the reins and he has led Fulham out of this division so Cherries fans will be optimistic of success.
The Contenders
Cardiff City flew home when Mick McCarthy took over but they ultimately left their push for the play-offs a little too late. You would think that with a full season under him and more importantly a full pre-season under him that the Bluebirds could be ready to fly again. James Collins and Mark McGuinness look good signings and although Harry Wilson not coming back is a bit of a blow you could certainly see another strong campaign from a Cardiff side who are 16/1 to win the league.
Cardiff are one of the former clubs of Middlesbrough manager Neil Warnock and he is somebody who can never be written off at this level. He has gotten more clubs out of this division than a tour golfer would have in his bag but he didn’t really inspire last term. They have recruited well as you would expect with Matt Crooks and Sammy Ameobi among the appealing signings. It won’t be pretty up at the Riverside but it might be effective and Boro are 20/1 to win the title.
Just quietly QPR have signed well after making the deal for Charlie Austin permanent again and adding the highly rated Sam Field and Sam McCallum to their squad. When you consider they finished ninth last term, they wouldn’t need to do a whole lot of improving to get themselves in and around the play-off places. You wonder if they have enough depth in their squad but if they are lucky with injuries and Warburton can find a couple more loans to scatter further stardust on the squad, the Londoners could give you a run at 22/1.
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Best of the Rest
Nottingham Forest found themselves dithering at the wrong end of the table last season but expectations are of a much better showing here under Chris Hughton, a man who is no strange to getting sides out of this division. Two seasons ago Forest were in the play-offs so there is enough potential there to be special, albeit Hughton is allowing some key characters to leave. He’ll use the excellent academy that Forest have and mix them in with regulars he knows from his former clubs. They should go a lot better than last term but the title looks out of reach.
Stoke City are one of the teams who are 25/1 in the betting but even that doesn’t look much of a price. The Potters were a mess when they came out of the Premier League and their woes haven’t really been put to bed yet. A lot of dead wood has been shifted on in the summer which might allow Michael O’Neill to blend the squad the way he wants it but you sense they’re another season or so at least away from competing at the very top of this division.
Swansea City have reached the play-offs for the past couple of seasons but this one could be one of struggle with their parachute payments having run out and Steve Cooper having left as manager fairly late in the day. They have recruited Russell Martin who comes with a good reputation for playing nice football but he’ll need to find a goal threat because Andre Ayew has moved on now. There are no special loans like Mark Guehi or Conor Hourihane either so Martin might need a window or two to deliver on his potential.
Outright Betting
I think if you finish above Bournemouth this season you’ll be champions. It isn’t totally ideal that they let Asmir Begovic go on a free to Everton but Mark Travers has been at the club long enough and probably deserves his chance. Diego Rico has gone to Real Sociedad but they should have cover in that area. Scott Parker has a lot of good midfielders and wide attackers at his disposal though and we saw him do plenty of damage in this league with Fulham with those. Throw in a more confident Dominic Solanke and a pretty mean defence towards the end of the season and you have a squad capable of winning this league.
The relegated three always have an advantage here given that they basically get funded for making a complete balls up of the season before but interestingly all three have changed their manager in the summer and only really Fulham have brought in a manager who plays the same style as his predecessor and I’m far from convinced on Marco Silva personally. There is improvement in the likes of Cardiff City, Middlesbrough and Nottingham Forest but I’d be surprised if any match Bournemouth. I’ll take the Cherries here.
Promotion Betting
When you consider that QPR didn’t need to improve a whole lot to be in and around the top six when you factor in key departures at Reading and Barnsley are likely to ensure they don’t have campaigns like the ones they had last year, I think it is fair to think that they have a chance of going up this season. Even if the three relegated sides all settle in quickly and fill three of the top six and say Bournemouth and Cardiff take up two more there is still a top six spot open for someone.
Keeping Charlie Austin fit will be key but they have Lyndon Dykes who has shown his worth at this level and I like the additions of Sam Field and Sam McCallum. Jordan Archer has cut it at this level before while Jimmy Dunne and Jordy de Wijs have both had good reputations in the EFL. I like Mark Warburton as a manager and while I’m no fan of QPR the 7/1 that they get promoted looks a tough big for a side who came ninth last year and when two of the eight sides who finished above them are likely to be much inferior this term.
Tips
Back Bournemouth to win Sky Bet Championship (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 10.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-3)
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Back QPR to get promoted for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with 888sport
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