After a seemingly non-stop summer of football, the Sky Bet Championship returns on Friday night as 24 teams start their dream of making it to the Promised Land of the Premier League in what is always an exciting nine-month rollercoaster.
Leicester City were the winners of the Championship last term, making an immediate return to the Premier League and all eyes will be on Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United to see if they can follow suit.
Recent Winners
2023-24 – Leicester City
2022-23 – Burnley
2021-22 – Fulham
2020-21 – Norwich City
2019-20 – Leeds United
2018-19 – Norwich City
2017-18 – Wolverhampton Wanderers
2016-17 – Newcastle United
2015-16 – Burnley
2014-15 – Bournemouth
The Favourites
Leeds United suffered the ultimate heartbreak at the end of last season. The Whites were second with eight matches to go but after stumbling in the final fifth of the campaign they made it through to Wembley in the play-offs only to forget to turn up on the day and be forced to watch on as Southampton sailed into the sunset to claim the final spot in the Premier League. Leeds finished third last season with a point tally that in any other season would have gone up automatically but they have lost Archie Gray and more importantly Crysencio Summerville to the Premier League and doubts remain how much longer the likes of Willy Gnonto will stay at Elland Road. There are no Leicester’s or Ipswich’s in this division this season so if Daniel Farke can replace those and get this Leeds side operating close to the levels of last year they should win the league but at no bigger than 3/1 with the mainstream firms they are plenty short enough for me.
Burnley absolutely tore the Championship apart the last time that they were in the division but that was under Vincent Kompany who has said Auf Wiedersehn and departed for Bayern Munich and Scott Parker has taken charge. He also has a good record in this division having got Fulham and Bournemouth promoted in the past but there is a bloated squad which needs trimming and a change in style will be implemented and that is a bit of a concern. Burnley have the tools to go well this season but I think they’ll warm into the campaign and might be better to be backed once the window has closed and we can see what Parker has done with the squad.
Luton Town were also relegated from the Premier League last season and having put up the best showing of the three that came down they might be in the best place to go straight back up, especially as they have done the thing few relegated clubs do and rather than sack their manager have given Rob Edwards a new four-year deal. They have only lost Ross Barkley from those who they had permanently who would be a regular starter in this side and having finished sixth and third in their last two seasons in this league and arriving into it with a stronger squad than both of those occasions the 12/1 on them to win the title could be a solid each way bet.
The Contenders
Middlesbrough looked like they were going to win promotion a couple of seasons ago but they fell short in the playoffs and then the hangover from that basically put paid to any chance they had last term. They have retained faith in Michael Carrick who looks to have done some decent business in the transfer market and will probably do more before the window closes. He knows how to get Middlesbrough on decent runs and make the Riverside a fortress and if they get off to a better start this season it is hard to see them being too far away.
Coventry City were a computerised line away from competing in the FA Cup final last season and ultimately those extra games formed a backlog of league fixtures which proved too much for them in the end and they missed out on the top six in the last couple of weeks of the campaign. Mark Robins looks to have addressed that with some appealing signings and it is hard to see them being weaker than last term. It would be a huge surprise if they are not in the top six this season although some of that optimism is reserved until we see how the exit of Adi Viveash affects things.
Sheffield United are the other relegated side who will be looking to make an immediate return to the Premier League and they are 18/1 at the best prices to do that. There has been a serious overhaul of personnel at Bramall Lane, as you would expect after such a terrible season last term, and you suspect they will need a few weeks to gel and improve into the campaign. The question then is how in touch with those who get off to flying starts they can remain. There are also doubts over the manager who has done little of note since leaving Sheffield United the first time around.
Norwich City are the only other side in the betting who are shorter than 20/1. They bombed out in the playoff semi-finals last term where Leeds United were far too strong for them and the manner of that humbling meant that David Wagner was never going to remain in charge. They are now under the stewardship of Johannes Thorup. New overseas managers into the Championship always concern me because they are just not used to the relentless grind that is a second tier campaign. Gabriel Sara leaving doesn’t help them but if Norwich can keep the rest of their stars and Thorup can adjust to the division quickly they can be in the mix.
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Best of the Rest
Stoke City are 22/1 to finally turn their form around and contend at the top half of the division after flirting with relegation for much of the last campaign. Stoke continually get priced up short in this outright market, largely because of the wealth their owners have I suspect, because they haven’t really been a factor in the division in terms of promotion since they were relegated back into it. Steven Schumacher has made some good signings but I don’t think the squad has strengthened as much as it needs to have done for them to be top six material.
West Bromwich Albion are 25/1 to finally get over the line when it comes to promotion but losing Brandon Thomas-Asante to promotion rivals Coventry doesn’t strike me as a move which screams improvement to me. The Baggies are already under the watchful eye of the EFL in terms of their finances and that always screams danger. Carlos Corberan is a very good coach who regularly gets teams to perform above themselves and keeping him gives them a chance but others look better value.
Sunderland are the only other team who are shorter than 33/1 to win the Championship this season. They are 28/1 shots for the title and would need an improvement on last term, although they gave themselves little chance when they sacked Tony Mowbray and replaced him with Mick Beale in a move that never ever looked like working. That improvement should come naturally and this is a Black Cats club who were 90 minutes from Wembley two seasons ago so if new boss Regis Le Bris can adjust to the Championship immediately and get the youngsters in this squad fulfilling their potential then they might outperform their odds.
Outright Betting
As ever in the Championship the top end of the betting looks to be pretty solid and while you can pick holes in all of the teams up there, the top five or six in the market do look like being the sides who will fight it out for promotion this season. There is the potential for Leeds to do a demolition job on this league if they can repeat the performances of last term but at 3/1 they have lost a couple of players too many for me to get involved while the Burnley turnaround might take a while to get going.
I think the value lies with Coventry City who continue to improve season on season in terms of their play and the quality within their squad and if they are not distracted by a lengthy cup run I really think they can push for promotion this season. They have an avalanche of riches in attacking areas having added Brandon Thomas-Asante to the ranks to go with the likes of Ellis Simms and Haji Wright while Jack Rudoni looks a solid acquisition in the centre of the park. You can get 12/1 with the four places that the sponsors offer so if the top three are as good as the layers expect there is still room for profit on an each way punt.
Tips
Back Coventry City to win Sky Bet Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-4)
