We have looked at the two main ante-post markets ahead of the Sky Bet Championship season getting underway with an outright preview and a top scorer one elsewhere on the site and there is just enough time before the kick off to take a look at the other offerings.
This feels like a competitive division this season where there could be a couple of fancied runners who don’t live up to the expectation and on the flip side of that there might be some who are underrated in the markets.
Top Six Finish
Much of the talk in the Championship is how the market is generally correct and in a lot of ways that is the case yet over the last three seasons we have had Huddersfield Town, Luton Town (twice), Coventry City, Sunderland and Ipswich Town all reach the top six at healthy ante-post prices and while this looks like a competitive betting heat, I would be surprised if someone from outside the fancied runners doesn’t have a good tilt at breaking into the top six.
The team I like this season are Sheffield Wednesday, a side who improved massively under Danny Rohl last term and who I think will continue to pick up now they have had a full pre-season under the German and the former Bayern assistant has had a transfer window to shape the squad a little more how he would want to see it. Ben Hamer, Nathaniel Chalobah and Jamal Lowe have experience of promotion from this division while Max Lowe is a good signing and James Beadle is back between the sticks. Only eight teams picked up more than the 50 points Sheffield Wednesday accrued after Rohl arrived last season where he had to turnaround a start of just three points in 11 games. With a clean slate to kick this season off with I think the Owls can make the sufficient progress to challenge the top six at 7/2.
Top Half Finish
I always like a shorter price outright over the course of a campaign which if it weighs in as comfortably as I would expect it to covers the less secure outright punts and basically offers up the chance for those to be free bets for the want of a better term. Generally the best markets to target are the ones where there are plenty of places to play for and there are 12 of them in the top half offering. I don’t think Bristol City will trouble the top four hence why I haven’t backed them outright but the 6/4 in this market looks big.
I was a huge fan of Bristol City towards the back end of last season and I expect them to continue to improve under Liam Manning. I never read too much into pre-season results but I noticed that Bristol City played a run of games in the same week so they would have been using two sides in those and won the lot so that tells us there is strength in depth at Ashton Gate. They have spent big on a couple of strikers so there is more firepower at the Manning disposal to go along with the fourth best defence from last season. Bristol City finished 11th last term and have to be capable of emulating that this term if not bettering it.
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Relegation
At the other end of the table things always get interesting in this division, in recent times because point deductions have come into play and while they can’t be ruled out this term, there are just a queue of sides who are getting weaker but the market might not have caught up with all of them. The favourites to go down are Oxford United, as playoff winners generally are, and Plymouth Argyle which is largely because they have appointed Wayne Rooney as manager. Admittedly, if the Pilgrims lose Morgan Whittaker in the window I would be concerned but two other sides grab my attention.
I have to say if Hull don’t make some signings then once the window closes I will add them to this pair but for now Preston North End and Derby County are just too big at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively. Preston actually finished in the top 10 last season but picked up just 44 points from their last 39 games and when you consider 51 is the minimum that is usually needed to survive, they would need a point a game from the others were they to play 39 more at the same pace. Preston have lost their captain Allan Browne to Sunderland and the owner situation has changed since the passing of Trevor Hemmings. Their budget is never the biggest anyway and I think they are a side careering in the wrong direction.
Derby County are a little fortunate to be in this division because they needed Bolton Wanderers to stall at the wrong time to finish second last term but while boss Paul Warne has a good record at getting sides out of League 1 and into the Championship, he has a terrible record of keeping them there. Much of that is because the Rotherham side he has had have been minnows in a bigger pond but some of it is down to his inability to change matches in game with his tactical prowess and against some really good coaches that is very much a concern here. This is an aging Derby squad even allowing for the likes of Conor Hourihane departing in the close season. The promoted sides are inflated prices here perhaps on the efforts of Sunderland and Portsmouth in the last two seasons but I don’t see Derby anywhere near that strong and if Warne can’t adapt to the level they could really struggle.
Tips
Back Sheffield Wednesday – Top 6 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with Coral
Back Bristol City – Top Half Finish for a 4/10 stake at 2.50 with BetVictor
Back Preston North End to be relegated for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with BetVictor
Back Derby County to be relegated for a 1/10 stake at 6.00 with Bet365
