We have previewed the Sky Bet Championship outright market ahead of the new season but before the big kick off there is just enough time to have a look through another of the popular markets in the form of the top goalscorer one.
This is always a tricky market to bet on until the transfer window closes because the player you back might be away and gone four games in and you’ve done your dough. Last year’s winner Sammie Szmodics could be a perfect case in point.
Recent Winners
2023-24 – Sammie Szmodics
2022-23 – Chuba Akpom
2021-22 – Aleksandar Mitrovic
2020-21 – Ivan Toney
2019-20 – Aleksandar Mitrovic
2018-19 – Teemu Pukki
2017-18 – Matej Vydra
2016-17 – Chris Wood
2015-16 – Andre Gray
2014-15 – Daryl Murphy
Market Leaders
Leeds United forward Mateo Joseph is a single figure price in most places but there is bits of 10/1 on the England and Spain youth international to lead the scoring this season but this would be a first full season for the 20-year-old and completing a 46 game Championship campaign playing every match would be a tough ask. There is also the potential for a Leeds drop off and with Joel Piroe and Patrick Bamford still at Elland Road the goals and time in the central position could be shared around. He’s too short for me.
Emmanuel Latte Lath took a while to get going last season but came home like a train and if Michael Carrick has kept him improving in the off season then he could easily follow in the footsteps of another Middlesbrough hotshot Chuba Akpom who top scored in this division a couple of seasons ago. Unlike Joseph at Leeds, Latte Lath looks the main man for a Middlesbrough side expected to go well but it remains to be seen if he is suddenly a regular scorer at this level or whether he just had a good month or so.
Josh Sargent is the third favourite in this market at 14/1. The Norwich hotshot had a good campaign last term with 16 goals and if Norwich are to push for promotion there are probably more goals in him but the loss of Gabriel Sara creating chances for him would be a concern and there are no guarantees that Norwich will play to his strengths as much in this campaign. He is definitely improving but the price doesn’t really reel me in.
There are a trio of players at 16/1. They are Joel Piroe, Carlton Morris and Ellis Simms. Piroe isn’t a guaranteed starter at Leeds and when he does start he might not be in the number nine position so that would be a concern. Simms is likely to start for Coventry but they have a lot more forward options this season and might well share their goals around so there are question marks over those two. I will expand on Morris when we get to the betting section below. It is 18/1 bar.
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Profile
If you look at the list of top scorers above, we don’t need to be on someone who is going to play for a promoted side which offers up a lot more options from a betting point of view. That said it stands to reason that the teams higher up the table are going to score more goals so in theory players for those clubs are going to be more likely to top score.
I think the thing to concentrate on is the need to be the main man. If we can be on a penalty taker as well then that is all the more sweet as he’ll get a few cheap goals in that manner, especially when you consider the warning that has gone out that things like holding in the penalty box is going to be targeted a lot more this season. When you narrow it down using those trends the market is a little easier to manage.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets on this market with the first of them being Carlton Morris. If you look at last season, and we assume Szmodics will go to Ipswich so won’t be in the division, the only player who is still in the league who scored more than 16 goals in the Championship last term is Morgan Whittaker and who knows what Plymouth will be like under Wayne Rooney. If that is the benchmark then a Morris, who scored 20 goals in leading Luton to promotion two seasons ago and 10 in the Premier League last season, has to have a very good chance of being in the frame here. Rob Edwards has publicly come out and said his side will look to entertain this season and Luton are going to hunt the ball high up the pitch. With the chance creation of Alfie Doughty putting chances on a plate and Morris being the penalty taker he looks a huge price at 16/1.
The other bet is a real reach but if we are in a division where 15 goals has you competitive then it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if a springer in the market contends and I think there is so much more improvement in Sinclair Armstrong now that he has moved to Bristol City. The former QPR forward never really suited the system that Marti Cifuentes plays at Loftus Road. He is relying on his pace and power to either burst past defenders or get on the end of crosses and things. I believe he has all the tools to be a top striker but there is an unknown on whether he’ll start down the middle or not. At 125/1 I’m prepared to pay to find out how he goes, particularly with him having scored in the two pre-season games he played in.
Tips
Back C.Morris Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back S.Armstrong Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
