The League 2 playoffs begin on Thursday night with the pick of the semi-finals having its first leg played out at Fratton Park when Plymouth head east to take on Portsmouth in what is a battle between two of the bigger sides in the division.
Portsmouth carry plenty of pressure whenever they play at this level but they go into the tie having finished lower than their opponents so maybe there is more pressure on Plymouth. There certainly is with regards to their fans who have already seen one golden chance of promotion completely naused up by their side.
Portsmouth
I guess the first thing you look at in these playoffs is the home form of both sides. Home form is relevant to Portsmouth here and you would have to say it isn’t great. They’ve only won 10 of their 23 matches at Fratton this season and start out with two defeats in their last three there, ironically one of those being against Plymouth.
Inconsistency has dogged Portsmouth throughout the season although I’m sure Paul Cook will mention the number of injuries they have had which has made them have to rely on the loan market a lot but a side of their size know they need to come through these playoffs.
Plymouth
Plymouth totally messed automatic promotion up and they will be dreading these playoffs. Not just because they blew their chance of a top three finish but because they were in them last year and never performed at all and these things leave a real mental scar on sides. They are horrible things to lose in.
On the bright side Plymouth go into the match off of a resounding 5-0 home win at the weekend and even rested some players for that match. They have a better record on the road than they do at Home Park so they might be the side able to play with more freedom here.
Team news
Portsmouth will be looking to have Mark McNulty and Kyle Bennett back for this match after both have been out with injury. Matt Clarke, Conor Chaplin and Ben Close will all have their fitness assessed ahead of the game.
Plymouth are hopeful that Rueben Reid and Jamille Matt will be fit for this match. Peter Hartley is another one who should be welcomed back from injury while Luke McKormick and Carl McHugh are expected to come back into the team having sat out the weekend win.
Betting
These two sides have been involved in some open matches to close out the season but I think that will all change here. I mean no offence to the two teams in the other semi-final but I’m sure someone somewhere in both clubs have looked at this semi as the gateway to League 1 because whoever wins this two legged tie will be massive favourites to win at Wembley.
With that in mind I’m expecting a bit of a cagey match to kick the playoffs off with. Generally speaking these semi-finals launch into life in the second legs when the do or die nature of them come into play and in these first legs sides just want to be in the game for the second leg.
Portsmouth’s home form certainly doesn’t convince me into backing them at such a short price but Plymouth’s mess of promotion so far and potential mental scars in these playoffs have me running for the hills with them too.
Given that I think it will be nervy and cagey I’m going to take under 2.25 goals in this one. I’m not expecting a goalfest here. Both sides know how to defend and I strongly believe it will be all about not losing here. It has an unders feel about it to me.
Tips
Back Under 2.25 goals for a 4/10 stake at 1.84 with 12bet
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