There isn’t long now until the English domestic season gets underway and before it does there is one more market for us to look into and that is the Skybet League 2 – relegation market.
Unlike most other leagues there are only two relegation spots in this division which makes finding a winner that much more difficult but as a result the prices are slightly larger so if we can find the right team we will get nicely rewarded.
Although this is the basement division of English football there are some big clubs in this league and then there are some not so big clubs so there will be a bit of a split in the division at some point. Last year it came at 15th place but in a stronger division it could come a little lower down this season.
The Favourites
Morecambe are often quite high up in the betting for this market but often manage to punch above their weight but with a lot of the rubbish in the division having been found out in the last few seasons this could be the year the trap door opens for the Shrimps.
Newport would have been relegated without trace last season but for a couple of months under John Sheridan. They started the season pathetically and weren’t a whole lot better at the end of it either. Whether Warren Feeney can get a better tune out of them this season remains to be seen.
Crawley finished as low as 20th last year and are third favourites to go but much has changed in Sussex with a takeover and a new manager who has decent roots and should have big contacts. I don’t think Crawley will pull up trees but I don’t see them being as low down this season.
Stevenage needed a late surge to get out of danger after beginning last season poorly under Teddy Sheringham. Their end to the season showed their potential and I’m sure they will show plenty of improvement in this campaign. With a prevailing wind and stars aligning they might even sneak into the top half.
Yeovil also spent much of last season down the bottom end of the table but pulled away the longer the season went on. They look to have stabilised after a couple of horrible seasons and are another side who will be looking up and not down.
Hartlepool have performed a couple of great escapes and look to have built a much stronger unit under Craig Hignett and just like Yeovil and Stevenage they should in theory be looking a lot higher than lower in their ambitions for the season ahead.
Betting
Anyone who has followed our outright bets in football for the last six months or so will know we like to look for the value and that is what I’m going to do here as well. That said one of the sides I expect to go down is one of the favourites and sometimes the obvious bets are the right bets.
I backed Newport to be relegated last season so the fact that John Sheridan turned up for three months, saved them and then deserted them annoyed me a lot because for the five months he wasn’t around they barely won a match.
The success of getting them back out of the Conference was based on a talented manager in Justin Edinburgh and a lottery winner financing them. Both have moved on now though. Edinburgh couldn’t resist Gillingham while the lottery winner has had enough so last year’s struggles were coming and I expect them to continue this season only this time I don’t think there is a Sheridan spell to save them.
Grimsby finally came out of the Conference at the god knows how many time of asking but their sabbatical away from non-league might not be as long as they would like. In the close season they have lost their top scorer Padraig Amond and a couple of other players key to their success last season and while a large number of players have come in, the quality of them is questionable at best.
There have been question marks over the manager Paul Hurst for a while and although credit needs to be given to him for getting Grimsby over the line last season just how much more he can bring remains to be seen. Having been out of the league for so long the desperation to stay can be restrictive. There is still enough rubbish in this league for Grimsby to stay up no problem but if there is a side sucked in it could be them at a tasty price.
Tips
Back Newport to be relegated for a 3/10 stake at 4.50 with Coral
Back them here:
Back Grimsby to be relegated for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfred
Back them here:
