The League Two season is now into the final quarter with the race for the playoffs and to avoid the drop really begin to excite as we head towards the often decisive Easter period.
Saturday’s fixtures are as follows:
Wimbledon v Accrington
Barnet v Hartlepool
Cambridge v Exeter
Carlisle v Northampton
Crawley v Morecambe
Dag & Red v York
Leyton Orient v Luton
Mansfield v Yeovil
Newport v Wycombe
Notts County v Bristol Rovers
Plymouth v Oxford Utd
Stevenage v Portsmouth
There are some great matches in this set of fixtures and more importantly there are some great betting opportunities. As always there are some that don’t offer such potential but for this stage of the season this is a good one.
Often I’m all over Northampton in these previews but finally they stopped winning in midweek and actually they have a tricky looking match at Carlisle so I’m not going to rush back in on them this week.
I’m a fan of Oxford on the road but they go to Plymouth in a huge match. I still think they will come through that one but I’m not as confident as I would need to be especially with the large potential there is for the two to cancel each other out.
At the other end of the table the bottom two collide in a huge match in Dagenham. Dagenham are still looking for their first home win of the season and York head there off the back of a severe beating in midweek so that can’t be a match to bet on with any sanity.
As always there are a few short priced runners this week. Mansfield top the list in that regard especially given Yeovil’s rise in form in recent times. Portsmouth and Bristol Rovers are two more who look short. I fancy one of them will slip up but I can’t decide which one so I’ll avoid them both.
Such is the greatness of this particular card I’m actually going in with four bets. They start with Wimbledon who have to be respected more to be shorter than they are against an Accrington side who I’ve felt have been teetering on the edge of falling away and maybe their slide has begun.
Wimbledon are going really well at the minute and actually came away from the leaders Northampton in midweek disappointed with a point which says an awful lot. They have been strong at home in recent times despite defeat to Oxford last time they were in front of their fans.
Accrington have now lost three of their last four on the road including their shock defeat to Yeovil in midweek and I think they can lose again here. I’m really surprised we’re getting the price we are on Wimbledon with the draw cover but I’m happy to lap it up.
I’m going to take on two sides I’ve seen in the flesh recently who have been nothing special and the first of those is siding with Barnet to see off Hartlepool. Given Barnet’s record at The Hive this season I would probably have taken them regardless of what I thought of Hartlepool but that home record further enhances my confidence.
Only Northampton have picked up more points at home this season than Barnet which shows how comfortable they are in their home surroundings. On the flip side only York have picked up fewer points on the road than Hartlepool and I’m not surprised with that.
Given their respective records I’m happy to take Barnet to win this match at odds against. Looking at some of the other prices in the division this weekend Barnet look excellent value here and I’m on.
Morecambe actually bored the living daylights out of me on Tuesday night although in fairness they were given plenty of assistance in that regard by Luton but you could clearly see a Morecambe side visibly low on confidence and they should be there for the taking from an underrated Crawley.
I saw underrated Crawley, that’s only partially true. They are underrated at home where they have picked up 27pts in 17 matches which is in the top third of the division. Morecambe have now lost their last four away matches and eight of their last nine overall.
As I said Morecambe look low in confidence and Crawley have been getting plenty of momentum at home so of the two I would favour Crawley strongly here. This shouldn’t be a level ball line at all so I’m happy to be on Crawley here.
Lastly I’m going back to what I know again and that is my own team Luton. They head to Leyton Orient in what looks a much bigger match than it did two weeks ago. All of a sudden Luton go to East London six points behind Orient and chasing a playoff place.
Three wins in a row have got sections of the Town fanbase dreaming of the playoffs and a win here would send those people into fever pitch with a home match against Crawley to come but while Luton have won their last three you would be stretching the boundaries to suggest they’ve looked convincing at any point.
Orient look to be in good form at the minute and have the division’s leading marksman in their midst and against this gift ridden Luton defence Jay Simpson should be licking his lips. I’d be very surprised if he or Orient at least don’t score in this one but I don’t think they will have it all their own way.
Luton are set up to be better on the road or to find it easier away from home and they have scored in every away game under Nathan Jones, winning three of the four the new manager has guided them in so this one is well set up and I fancy over 2.5 goals there.
Back Barnet to beat Hartlepool for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power
Back them here:
PUSH – Back AFC Wimbledon (0AH) to beat Accrington for a 4/10 stake at 1.90 with BetVictor
PUSH – Back Crawley (0AH) to beat Morecambe for a 5/10 stake at 1.94 with BetVictor
Back Leyton Orient vs Luton – Over 2.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 2.05 with BetVictor
