One of the biggest days of the snooker season takes place on Sunday when the final of The Masters takes place. Many of the most synonymous moments in snooker history have come in the final of this tournament and it would be fitting if this final delivered some more after what has been a tremendous week.
The final will see Ronnie O’Sullivan looking for his sixth Masters crown when he takes on Barry Hawkins who will be aiming to win this prestigious title for the first time. This is a repeat of the 2013 World Championship final which O’Sullivan won 18-12.
Hawkins booked his spot in his first final of The Masters when he produced his best ever performance in the tournament in beating Judd Trump 6-4 in the semi-final. Hawkins popped in three centuries in that match to silence anyone who had the merest thought that he doesn’t belong at this level with the big boys.
O’Sullivan wasn’t as impressive as Hawkins in the last four in terms of the pure break building numbers but there were passages of play in his match with Stuart Bingham where the Rocket was breath-taking.
Both men will be fairly comfortable in the situation they find themselves in going into this match. Hawkins prefers being the outsider while O’Sullivan is well rehearsed in being a heavy favourite so in theory that should ensure we see a decent match here but I’m not so sure it will play out that way in reality.
Hawkins gave as good as he got against O’Sullivan in that Sheffield final three years ago but the evidence since is that wasn’t a wise move. That performance got himself on Ronnie’s radar and you don’t want to be on that because that means he usually raises his game against you and takes no mercy.
Since that final O’Sullivan has won their meetings 6-2, 17-7, 4-1 and 3-1 so Hawkins hasn’t got close and I fear he may not get close here either. O’Sullivan has won this title five times and in four of the finals he has won he has done so conceding no more than four frames so he tends to go from strength to strength from here on in.
Hawkins is capable of running O’Sullivan close but whether he believes he can is another thing and whether he can perform in this pressure cooker environment in an arena which will be full of a Ronnie loving crowd is also an unknown.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and take O’Sullivan to dominate this final. All the history suggests that will be the case so I don’t think the 3.5 handicap is enough here. That needs seven frames for Hawkins to bust it and I don’t see him getting that many.
In fact given that the likes of Higgins twice, Selby and Ding have all failed to take more than four frames off O’Sullivan in Masters finals I’m going to suggest Hawkins won’t so I’m going to chance a wide margin correct score for a unit. I quite like 10-3 here for some interest but those more serious can cover a score either side.
My final bet is going to be on O’Sullivan to make over 6.5 50+ breaks. If he dominates the final he’ll get better as he goes along and that should see plenty of breaks given how well this table is playing. There might even be the odd frame which has a couple of 50s from him but needing 10 frames to win the title if he does win it I’d be surprised if seven 50s aren’t made along the way.
Back R.O’Sullivan (-3.5 frames) to beat B.Hawkins for a 6/10 stake at 1.91 with Paddy Power
Back R.O’Sullivan Over 6.5 50+ breaks for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power
Back R.O’Sullivan to win 10-3 for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Stan James
