The Super Bowl is such a huge sporting event that there are almost 400 betting markets on the big game and with the season climax still a few hours away we’ve just got enough time to go through them and pick out some value in amongst them.
Markets range from the colour of Lady Gaga’s clothes when she sings the national anthem to Coldplay’s first song in the half time show and plenty of markets on the match statistics and it is the latter section which interests me the most here.
Touchdowns
A good place to start is with the touchdown markets. A lot of people like to play the match with a first touchdown scorer punt and often I have a few quid on someone at a decent price especially in a match like this where with the defences on show we might have to wait a while for the first TD.
When Denver have the ball for the first time I think Carolina are going to swoop hard in defence and make life very tough for the Broncos offense. We’ve seen throughout this playoff series how Carolina make very strong starts to matches so the 22/1 on their defence scoring the first touchdown could be interesting.
Manning doesn’t fear tight lanes to throw his passes into but with the likes of Luke Keuchly around he could easily be picked off and the ball could easily be returned for a touchdown. We’ve seen special teams score the first touchdown in Super Bowl’s before too so I’ll have a go at that 22/1.
I think risk taking could be a feature of the offensive play in this match so I think a defensive touchdown has every chance especially late on when whichever side is losing has to force things to make something happen. A defensive touchdown in this match is 13/8 and that is something that should keep us interested throughout.
Field Goals
I don’t expect to see many touchdowns in this match with the defences largely on top but points could well come in the form of field goals. In Brandon McManus and Graham Gano we have two pretty reliable kickers on show here and with defences set up to contain the opponents there may well be a few field goal opportunities.
Points could be in rare supply in this match so rather than taking chances on 4th and 1 and such like both coaches should opt for the three points on offer and if they do I’m confident the over 3.5 field goals will safely land.
Sacks
Another thing I expect to see plenty of is sacks. The Denver offensive line can be vulnerable and Peyton might need longer than he’ll get in throwing situations so he could go down a few times but with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller among others hunting Cam Newton down I don’t think the Panthers will be able to keep their quarterback protected throughout.
The sacks line is 5.5 which looks high but I think it will be covered. There is just too much pressure around the quarterbacks for them to have an easy ride in this match so I strongly fancy half a dozen of them at least.
Player props
Nearly everyone who is capable of catching a ball in this match has a receiving yards line priced up and one which looks quite low is Owen Daniels’ line at 26.5. The Tight End averages over 10 yards a catch this season so if he catches three passes the chances are he will cover this line but he could get to 27 yards in two catches with some fortune.
Daniels caught two passes last week which were both touchdown catches but I fancy he could be more involved this week as the pressure comes and he offers a check down option. Daniels lines up in most snaps so I fancy this line to be covered.
Back Carolina Panthers D/ST First Touchdown Scorer for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Skybet
WIN – Back Defensive/Special Teams Touchdown for a 3/10 stake at 2.63 with Ladbrokes
WIN – Back Over 3.5 Field Goals for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Stan James
WIN – Back Over 5.5 sacks for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Ladbrokes
Back O.Daniels Over 26.5 receiving yards for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet
It is worth noting that Coral are doing a ‘spend £20 pre game get £10 in play’ offer for the Super Bowl so it might be worth taking one of the above bets with them to qualify for a free bet in play on the game.
