The penultimate round of Super League matches begin at Headingley on Thursday night when the table topping Leeds Rhinos host the Castleford Tigers.
Leeds had been looking like running away with the league leaders’ shield but two defeats in a row have seen Wigan draw level on points with them so to be sure of landing their second piece of silverware of the season the Rhinos need to win their last two matches, beginning here.
Castleford’s hopes of making the playoffs ended with defeat to St Helens last week so they are playing purely for pride and league position in this match but as Leeds found out when they went to Catalans last week a lack of pressure could release the shackles and make the Tigers more dangerous than normal.
The Rhinos appear to be suffering from a Challenge Cup final hangover. Since winning that competition they have suffered back to back defeats at home to St Helens and away to Catalans. In isolation neither are drastic results but given how dominant they were prior to the cup final win it is natural people blame that for the losses.
Castleford were on a decent little run but three defeats in a row have derailed them and they will be looking to end that slump in this match. Although they can’t make the playoffs finishing fifth would still be a good position for them given their player turnover at the end of last season.
Leeds will welcome Kallum Watkins back into their squad for the first time since the Wembley win. That is a big boost but they will be without Mitch Achurch and Jimmy Keinhorst. Rob Burrow is in the squad but remains a doubt still.
Castleford have made just one change to their squad and that sees Matt Cook return from suspension. He takes the place of Gadwin Springer. That means Justin Carney remains on the sidelines with his internal suspension.
Neither side are in great form in recent weeks but you’ve got to think given that they have something to play for Leeds will win the game. I know must win doesn’t always mean will win but they’re the better side and they’re at home.
For me the question is whether they can cover three scores and I’m not so sure they will. Daryl Powell was very critical of his side’s defence last week and you would think they will have worked tirelessly on that area of their game ahead of this week. We know they can score points so while I expect Leeds to win I think Castleford can stay within the 18pts they are getting.
Back Castleford (+18) to beat Leeds for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet
Blog RL YTD: +13.71pts
