The opening semi-final of the Super League season takes place on Thursday night when St Helens and Warrington Wolves do battle for the first place at Old Trafford. Both sides have played semi-final football this season already so they will know the task in hand.
St Helens were beaten in the Challenge Cup semi-final so they will be desperate to avoid a repeat of that while the Wolves came through their own showdown in the last four of that competition on the same day and are eyeing up a spot in another final.
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St Helens
There is no doubt who the best side in the Super League has been this season. St Helens won 26 of their 30 matches and finishes six points better than anyone in the competition and a massive 15pts ahead of their opponents in this match but we’ve seen a number of times in the past that what has gone before does not matter now.
St Helens have had one of the most vibrant attacks that we’ve seen in the Super League era this term but it is usually defensively where these matches are won so they will need to muscle up in the defensive areas which they were unable to do when they took on the Catalans Dragons in the semi-final of the Challenge Cup.
Warrington Wolves
The Wolves know all about winning semi-finals in the Challenge Cup but they are less regular when it comes to winning Super League matches at this stage of the campaign. Given how far behind St Helens they finished in the regular season they could be forgiven for thinking they have little to lose in this match but it generally doesn’t work like that when campaigns are on the line.
Warrington have shown a marked improvement in their own attacking play this season and have the joint second best attack on the year. They have the third best defence too so they fully merit a place in this last four clash but with the Wolves you get the impression that it isn’t about their technical skills in these big matches but more their mentality and strength of mind.
Team News
Justin Holbrook decided to rest Jonny Lomax, Luke Thompson and Jon Wilkin for the win over Castleford Tigers last weekend but all three are expected to be recalled. Ben Barba will be playing his final match for the Saints if they were to lose here.
Warrington have winger Tom Lineham back from suspension which will be a boost. Kevin Brown and Tyrone Roberts have also recovered from injuries in time to feature which is a further boost to their chances.
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Betting
Given that this is a semi-final with all the marbles on the line to get to Old Trafford I think we can expect a tight match in terms of the overall scoreline. It would be a surprise if what is on the line a side runs away with this match.
I’m already on St Helens to win the Grand Final having backed them before the season started but I do think they will be the ones to come through a tight tussle here. They are pretty short on the match odds though and the handicaps don’t inspire me so the best way to play this match could be to take St Helens to win by between 1 and 12 points.
Tips
Back St Helens to win by 1-12pts for a 4/10 stake at 2.75 with William Hill
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