After a hugely dramatic first round of the T20 World Cup, the Super 12 stage of the competition begins with another double header of action on Saturday when former finalists Australia go up against South Africa in Dubai.
Australia lost out to England in the final of this tournament in 2010 but their fortunes in the competition haven’t been great since then. The final is a step further than South Africa have ever been in this event so both have something to prove over the next three weeks.
Australia
We are used to Australia going into global events as the favourites to win them but that certainly isn’t the case this time around. It shouldn’t be either because this has never been the strongest format of the game for Australia. Their success has come in Test cricket and 50 over cricket but with them hosting the next T20 World Cup after this one, you sense that is about to change so if they can go well here it will set them up nicely.
One of the reasons Australia don’t go as well in this format as the other two is their better bowlers are restricted to four overs so have less of an impact on the matches. They’ll need them to maximise their impact here though because there are a lot of doubts and concerns about their batting. The openers are in no form at all and the freer scorers in the middle order might be inconvenienced with the exception of Glenn Maxwell. If Australia do show up with the bat then it is game on. If they don’t they’ll need their bowlers to rescue them.
South Africa
It has been clear for a while now that South Africa have been a batter light in their setup but that hasn’t hindered them in any way. There is a case to be made that they are the form team in the tournament coming in after winning nine of their last 10 matches before they arrived in the UAE. If that wasn’t enough they controlled both their warm up games and have played who played in the IPL in this part of the world too.
As long as that lack of a batsman doesn’t come back and haunt South Africa then they are entitled to think they have every chance of going well over the next three weeks or so. That is because man for man their bowling attack stands up to anything in this tournament. They have the desired mix of extreme pace and mystery spin and that attack almost looks certain to go well. If the South Africa batters just post a slightly above score their side will win more than they lose.
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Key Men
You can make a case for Mitchell Marsh being the key man for Australia with him looking likely to get the number three position but it can only be Glenn Maxwell. You sense the spinners will be the ones to determine how this one goes and nobody on this Australia team hits spin like Maxwell. His own spin bowling could come in handy too.
Kagiso Rabada looks like a key man for South Africa because the Australia openers look bang out of from so it is important that the Proteas bowlers don’t give them anything to get their teeth into as they might be chasing the game if that is the case.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets for the opening match of the Super 12 stage. The first is on South Africa to win. They are in great from right now and have a lot less issues to sort out than Australia. Even if Australia were hoping to find the right combinations when they got to this tournament the warm up matches suggests that hasn’t happened. They edged past New Zealand and got smoked by India. South Africa have been building some real confidence in this format of the game and they have a lot of options in the balance of their side both in the batting department and the bowling one. They have a team that should suit these conditions too so as long as pressure doesn’t get to them, something which can never be guaranteed with South Africa, then I think the odds against on them is a good bet.
I wasn’t going to get involved in the player markets until we have seen the teams play a game but there is no way I’m going to ignore the 50/1 on Ashton Agar top scoring for Australia. In the second to last T20 against Bangladesh recently Agar hit 27 which was enough to be the second highest scorer while in one of the warm up matches he scored 23 against New Zealand which was only 12 shy of topping the run chart so even though he isn’t going to come in until seven it isn’t like he can’t score runs there. South Africa have the pace to keep the top order honest and as long as someone doesn’t get away when the spinners come on Agar might well be in the game. He might actually go up the order to offer a left-handed option against the spinners. Either way, at 50/1 he’s a ridiculous price for a bloke who has three First-class tons and a T20 50.
Tips
Back South Africa to beat Australia for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Coral
Back them here:
Back A.Agar Top Australia Batter for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway
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