The second match in the vital double header of action at the T20 World Cup 2021 on Friday comes from Dubai where India will look to keep their hopes of reaching the semi-final alive when they take on a determined Scotland outfit.
India know that going into the day their semi-final prospects are out of their own hands but they also know that to have any chance of making it through they have to win their final two matches. Scotland will be going home after the Super 12 phase but could take an enormous scalp with them here.
India
This tournament certainly didn’t go to plan for India in the early stages when they lost their opening two matches. They lost them emphatically as well which means they have been chasing their tail ever since then. Unless New Zealand lose to Namibia earlier in the day, India don’t just need to win their final two matches of this Super 12 stage but they need to win them by comfortable margins because their run rate is significantly inferior to those challenging that semi-final spot.
They do however have the confidence of taking Afghanistan to the cleaners last time out to get their campaign up and running and with the two weakest teams in the group on paper left to play they should be able to carry out their end of the requirement, although that will only happen if they play with the intensity we are used to seeing from an India team rather than the one which we saw in their first two matches.
Scotland
I mentioned ahead of the last game Scotland played that there is a sense that they have already had their World Cup final and are struggling to get going again for the remainder of this tournament. That remains the case after they were pretty well beaten by New Zealand in their previous match. That isn’t necessarily a criticism of them because their achievement of getting to this stage was huge for Scottish cricket but I’m sure they would like to show what they can do once again before they leave the tournament.
To be fair to Scotland they have followed the path a lot of associate sides do when they are in the deep end of these things. They are competitive for maybe 15 overs or so with the ball but then lose their way at the end of the innings and their batsmen struggle to keep up with the required rate as a result only for some hitters to come in and show their talents at the end of the innings. It might be worth shoving someone up the order to have a go and try and take India by surprise.
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Key Men
I always think Rohit Sharma sets the tone for this India side. If he bats positively and gets going then he can take India to a huge total but if he doesn’t then they end up scrambling around for runs to post a worthy score. He has the chance to get in and go big here.
Scotland need early wickets to have any chance of controlling India here and with Josh Davey now ruled out of the tournament you would think the emphasis will fall on Brad Wheal to get them. If he can break the opening partnership early it keeps Scotland in the game for a little longer.
Betting
India won’t need reminding that they have played here twice and lost them both but I still expect them to win this match. The concern would be that they batted poorly on both occasions but to be fair to them the Pakistan and New Zealand attacks were on fire in those matches and it is hard to believe Scotland will bowl anything like as well as that here. Those displays do make me nervous about backing India to cover a large handicap though so I’ll back them in a different way.
However this match plays out, the one thing we know is that India will go about scoring quickly here. If they are posting a score the bigger the score the better for their net run rate and if they are chasing one then the quicker they can chase it down the better it will serve them so I expect them to feast on this Scotland attack which makes me think that over 13.5 India fours is worth backing. There is a risk attached to it should Scotland bat first and do a Bangladesh or something but they have enough batting depth to avoid that. Even then India will hit boundaries. I’ll take the fours rather than the sixes because the boundaries here are pretty big. I like the over.
I’ll also take a punt on Michael Leask to top score for Scotland at 13/1. He has top scored in the last two matches with efforts in the 40s and you would imagine he might be shifted up the order at some point. Even if he isn’t we know India have the tools to keep the top order quiet and it might well need some blows from Leask down the order to offer some respectability to proceedings. 13/1 for a man who bats six is big anyway but when you consider the armoury India have up front with the ball it looks very big here.
Tips
Back India – Over 13.5 fours for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
Back M.Leask Top Scotland Batter for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
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