The first place in the final of the T20 World Cup will be won on Wednesday night when the first semi-final is played out in Trinidad as two sides who have lived charmed lives in the event in recent times meet as South Africa take on Afghanistan.
These two sides both faced effective quarter finals in their last Super Eights match so they have played knockout cricket and come out the other side which bodes well for them. Both wins were nervy though so we should expect a tense semi-final here.
South Africa
You have to give South Africa a lot of credit for their last win in the Super Eights. They limped over the line I think that is fair to say but this is a team, who despite having not really playing their best at any stage in the competition, who have won all seven matches that they have played. If they extend that to nine wins then they will have won a global competition for the first time and banished the memories of the choking tag they have had to carry around for so long.
We haven’t seen anything close to the best of South Africa with the bat in this tournament and that has to go down as a concern when they take on a decent bowling unit here. You would hope for their sake that they’ll come good at some point but in a semi-final when they are warm favourites to win? History would suggest that isn’t the time that it will happen. It will be interesting to see if South Africa choose to bat first here to avoid being weighed down by scoreboard pressure.
Afghanistan
The surprise package in the tournament so far are Afghanistan but they fully deserve their place in the semi-final and will be looking to make it through to a first major final at senior level here. They might be disadvantaged in that they only rounded out their Super Eights campaign on Monday night but you would imagine once the match starts adrenalin will get them through any tiredness if there is any. When Afghanistan have been good in this tournament they have been very good. Unfortunately for them the opposite has also been true.
Afghanistan have been good when they have batted first in the tournament. They are unbeaten when that has been the case having played five and won five but in the two occasions they have bowled first they haven’t been at the races and have been well beaten. That will be a concern for them going into this semi-final but if they can win the toss and bat first then they will certainly feel very good about their chances.
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Team News
Unless there is a surprise in the pitch conditions here then South Africa are expected to name an unchanged team for this semi-final. They weren’t completely convincing with the bat in the previous game but had enough depth to get the job done.
Afghanistan are sweating over the fitness of Rahmanullah Gurbaz after he took a blow to the knee in the win over Bangladesh on Monday night. The hamstring nonsense with Gulbadin Naib was a smokescreen though.
Betting
If you have followed me throughout the competition right from the very start you will effectively be holding a betting slip for Afghanistan to win this match at 25/1 having taken them outright before a ball was bowled. I’m certainly not deviating from that, at least until I know the outcome of the toss and then I might lay a bit off, so for now I’m going to look at the side markets for a bet on this opening semi-final where the runs line is in focus.
That line is 280.5 which feels a little high when you consider the quality that these two bowling attacks have shown, not to mention the tricky batting conditions here in Trinidad. The highest score in the four matches on this ground has been 149/9 which West Indies made against New Zealand but even that was only so high because 37 came off the last 13 balls when Sherfane Rutherford cut loose against part-time bowlers. This is not a high scoring ground and outside of the Afghanistan openers there isn’t too much batting form on show here. I’ll gladly play the under.
Tips
Back Under 280.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betway
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