The second part of the two matches in the T20 World Cup on Wednesday sees the tournament heading to Trinidad for the first time as the co-hosts West Indies look to book their spot in the next stage when they take on New Zealand.
New Zealand were battered by Afghanistan in their opening match of the tournament and will need a mathematical miracle to qualify if they lose this game. West Indies are two from two and will qualify with a match to spare should they win here.
West Indies
West Indies laboured through their opening match of the tournament against Papua New Guinea but were far too good for Uganda in their second one so having got what you would call the preliminary games in the group out of the way now is the time things get serious for them. They might well have enough points with their enormous net run rate as it is but they only guarantee progression if they are able to see off one of New Zealand here or Afghanistan in their final game.
They won’t want to be in a position where they have to beat an Afghanistan side who are looking pretty decent in their final game so they will be all out to win this one. Their bowling looks in really good order at the minute so if their batters can continue to improve as the tournament goes on then the co-hosts are going to be in decent shape. They might have an advantage of knowing the conditions here too which is no bad thing.
New Zealand
New Zealand were one of the last teams to get their campaign underway and it is fair to say they looked very rusty in what turned out to be an annihilation by Afghanistan. That has already put them on the back foot because the margin of defeat was such that they are not going to be able to repair their net run rate in two games if they suffer another loss, and even if they were to they would need Afghanistan to be beaten by Papua New Guinea and West Indies to have any chance of making the super eights.
I think to all intents and purposes this is must win for New Zealand and if they are going to win the game they are going to need to bat and field a whole lot better than they did in their opening game. We expected them to be undercooked having not had a warm up match in the conditions but they were sloppy in that first game and can’t afford to be that again. You sense they need their bowlers to claim early wickets else this could be another tough night at the office.
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Team News
There is no reason for West Indies to change a dominant side for this match but at some point you would imagine they would want to get a run out into the likes of Obed McCoy, Shamar Joseph, Shai Hope and Shimron Hetmyer in case they are needed later in the tournament. That might wait until the final group game if they win this.
New Zealand surely won’t have been happy with their performance in the previous game and will make changes as a result. Rachin Ravindra could come in for Mark Chapman in the middle order to offer another spin option although Ish Sodhi could be an option too.
Betting
The run line for this match is set into the 320s range which isn’t necessarily wrong based on history of this ground, although we have only had four T20I matches played here prior to this event coming to town but the matches here in the CPL and in the warm up games were largely low scoring and with rain having been around the Trinidad island on Tuesday this pitch might play tougher than the organisers would have wanted. This is a huge game for both sides so winning will be the overriding thing will be to get over the line. New Zealand do need to sort their net run rate out but that won’t count for anything if they don’t win this so I’m expecting a low scoring game. Afghanistan got away from New Zealand in the previous game but only posted 159 on a pitch which played well. This one is likely to be tough to face the spinners on and with the seamers hardly a walk in the park on these two sides I think the under 325.5 runs is the right play.
The other bet I like in the match is for Ish Sodhi to be the leading bowler for New Zealand. It is pretty well known that West Indies do not play spin particularly well, especially wrist spin and even in a game that was a cruise against Uganda in the previous game they lost two wickets to the wrist spinner, while three Papua New Guinea wickets against them came via spin. On this track I think Sodhi could be tough to face. He has taken at least one wicket in every T20I against West Indies and in conditions which will really suit spin I think his mystery could be tough to score off. At 7/2 he feels a big price to be the leading New Zealand bowler in these conditions.
Tips
Back Under 325.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back I.Sodhi Top New Zealand Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with Betfair
