It is the final event of the year on the PGA Tour this week when a decent looking field looks for one last official payday in 2024 when they head to Sea Island in Georgia for The RSM Classic with the last playing rights for 2025 on the line.
Ludvig Aberg won this tournament a year ago and despite a few injury issues recently he is in the field looking to make a successful defence of the title. A competitive if a little underwhelming field will be opposing him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Ludvig Aberg
2022 – Adam Svensson
2021 – Talor Gooch
2020 – Robert Streb
2019 – Tyler Duncan
2018 – Charles Howell III
2017 – Austin Cook
2016 – Mackenzie Hughes
2015 – Kevin Kisner
2014 – Robert Streb
The Courses
There are two courses in use for this tournament. The Seaside Course and the Plantation Course are the two in use. Three of the four rounds take place on the Seaside Course with the other on the Plantation track. Neither course is especially long so if the wind isn’t blowing they can both be got after. The Seaside Course is a par 70 that measures 7,005 yards while the Plantation Course is a par 72 which goes up to 7,060 yards. It has four par fives on it so they have to be taken care of.
These are courses where accuracy matters more than length although in truth there is no great demand off the tee. The key comes in firing at flags and holing putts in what are generally low scoring tournaments. The wind is expected to play a part in the early part of the tournament so having players who can do well in the wind is a pre-requisite. There is no rough though so it may pay to go with form horses here.
The Field
You wouldn’t expect the field for the final event of what has been a pretty long year to be that strong, especially as the DP World Tour held their playoffs on the other side of the world last week. In truth though, it isn’t the worst field that has ever been put together for this tournament. There is a strong European contingent in the field this week headed up by the defending champion Ludvig Aberg but also including the likes of Matt Wallace and Seamus Power.
The home charge will be headed up in terms of profile by the former winner of The Open in Brian Harman while the likes of Davis Thompson, Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston and Maverick McNealy are also teeing it up this week. There isn’t too much of an international challenge with a number of Australians playing on the DP World Tour this week but among those who are here include Si Woo Kim, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson and Nico Echavarria.
Market Leaders
Ludvig Aberg is the standout player in the field this week in terms of the world rankings, ability and the fact that he is the defending champion and he is 11/1 to keep hold of the title he won last year. That would ordinarily look fairly big in this company but the Swede is coming off the back of an injury cloud and might only be here because he is defending the title. That is more than enough for me to swerve him although if he is bang on it he would be the likely winner.
Davis Thompson is the second favourite this week and having won the John Deere Classic earlier in the year it would make sense for him to be a leading contender here. Thompson is a 22/1 shot on the best prices and is a regular at this tournament without offering too much in terms of decent finishes. Nevertheless, a winner on the year in a field of this lack of depth and quality has to be taken seriously but I think better value lies elsewhere.
Si Woo Kim is a 28/1 shot to win the tournament this week. He is another player who is no stranger to winning on the PGA Tour so that automatically makes him dangerous this week. He was at the Presidents Cup not too long ago and his only event in the Fall Series saw him finish T6 at the ZOZO Championship a few weeks ago where he finished 64 64. Si Woo played here last year and finished well down the field though which isn’t inspiring.
Brian Harman is next in the market at 30/1 and if he is anywhere near his best form then he has to be taken very seriously but I think it is fair to say that he hasn’t really kicked on from that win at The Open 16 months ago. He does have a couple of top five finishes here and the more the wind blows the better he is likely to be but there isn’t enough in his overall form that wants me to get involved on him. It is 33/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets to round out the Fall Series with the first on a man I have backed a couple of times this year thinking that his time to get off the mark in terms of winning is approaching. That is Ben Griffin who was T8 here last year and who was eighth in Bermuda last week as well. His scoring this season has been fantastic and if last week is the ideal preparation for this tournament then I would expect him to be right in the mix. Griffin has five top 10 finishes on the season, four of which have come in the second part of the year, so he’s in decent form and looks a big price at 30/1.
Mackenzie Hughes is another player who has been on my radar at times this year and he is never far from my shortlist here anyway because he has a decent record in this tournament. He has won this tournament before and has finished second on two other occasions. In those times he finished second he closed with 62 and 63 and last year he reaffirmed how much he loves these courses by going round in 60. He has played in the Presidents Cup since the FedEx playoffs and has two top 10s in the Fall Season. He looks primed for another massive run here.
Outsiders
Patton Kizzire is all or nothing but he showed at the Procore Championship that when he is all he can win a tournament and anyone who has won an event this year, but especially a Fall Series event which was only two months ago, has to be a runner especially if they are a three figure price. When he had no form at all last year he came here and finished T44 with a 65 in the third round so with more confidence behind him he has to be much more of a runner here. He has a top 10 finish around here and I think he is a decent punt this week.
Sam Ryder has had a pretty ordinary year but he might be finishing it well because in the last four events he has gone T40-MC-T30-T5 and that T5 was in Bermuda last week where he went round in 62 blows in the second round. You don’t shoot rounds like that if you are not hitting the ball from the middle of the club face. Ryder was T13 here last year which shows us that he can handle these two tracks and in a tournament which probably won’t take the sort of winning that it might have done previously, off the back of a good week I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Tips
Back B.Griffin to win The RSM Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back M.Hughes to win The RSM Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back P.Kizzire to win The RSM Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Ryder to win The RSM Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
