The 51st edition of Tirreno-Adriatico takes place between 9th and 15th March 2016, comprising 7 stages.
The Course
In recent years the race starts on a Wednesday with a short team time trial or prologue. The next few stages appeal to the sprinters followed by a stage ending in a short hilltop finish. The middle stages, raced in the second half of the race, are the high mountain stages of the event. It is usually in these stages that the winner emerges.
Stage One is a team time trial of just over 22kms.
From here forwards, the next few days (stages 2-4) will follow a pattern of breakaway being reeled in inside the last 20kms and sprint finishes.
Stage 5 will be contested by the climbers and is the key stage in the race. It is here that the overall contenders have to attack and gain time.
Stage 6 is flatter again and will likely be contested in a sprint finish.
The final stage is a 10.7km time trial.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of Tirreno-Adriatico were:
• 2011 – Cadel Evans (AUS) – BMC
• 2012 – Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) – Astana
• 2013 – Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) – Astana
• 2014 – Alberto Contador (ESP) – Tinkoff
• 2015 – Nairo Quintana (COL) – Movistar
The Favourites.
Indicative to the quality of the riders in this race, the previous five winners of Tirreno-Adriatico have all won Grand Tours. Of the four only Nibali is present. Contador is racing Paris-Nice, Evans has retired and Quintana’s season is focused on preparation for the Tour de France.
The main contenders for overall victory are Vincenzo Nibali (Astana), Alejando Valverde (Movistar), and Tejay van Garderen (BMC). The Team Sky duo of Walt Poels and 2016 signee Mikel Landa Meana have pulled out of the race in the last few days, effectively making it a three way fight for victory.
Nibali, van Garderen and Valverde are the best overall riders in the field. I would ranking them in this order in three areas:
• Best climber high mountains – Nibali, van Garderen , Valverde
• Best at punchy finishes – Valverde, Nibali, van Garderen
• Best in time trials – van Garderen, Nibali, Valverde
Due to the nature of the course I think Tejay van Garderen has the opportunity to breakthrough into the top tier of riders. He will gain time on the other two in the opening team time trial and the final individual time trial stage. I think he will stay close enough to Nibali, in stage 5 to limit his losses enabling him to take the leaders jersey on the final stage.
The Outsiders
The outsiders include Rigoberto Uran Uran (Cannondale), Bauke Mollema (Trek), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky), Adam Yates (Orica Greenedge) and this might be surprising Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo).
Uran, has a history of being a rider who can contend in the week long races, like Tirreno-Adriatico. It is the longer, 3 week races where he has one day where he struggles, costing him the chance of victory. For me he won’t be able to stay with Nibali or Tejay at crunch time. He will lose time on Stage 5 and isn’t at van Garderens level in the time trial.
Bauke Mollema, is a strong rider but his career results mark him more as a top ten rider than a podium contender, especially against the big three.
Pinot, is one of France’s big hopes. He can climb and that is the perfect skill for this course. I could see him getting a stage win, but there is a modicum of inconsistency in his form. Last year he showed on a number of occasions an ability to lose time through silly mistakes. Until this is corrected I can’t back him to win. Pinot does tend to perform better in years with an even number!
Kwiatkowski, is now the Team Sky leader. He is a great one day classics rider and can climb well on shorter punchy type of finishes. There remain questions regarding his ability in the higher mountains. However, the nature of the course, with only one mountain stage means he could be a podium outsider.
Yates is an emerging rider that does everything well. He and his brother Simon, seem be progressing bit-by-bit each season since they signed for Orica. He is an overall top ten candidate and could cause a surprise on one of the mountain finishes.
Sagan, may seem like an unusual choice as an overall candidate. It is probable he won’t finish in the top ten BUT he has won a week long stage (Tour of California in 2015) that is mountainous. He has form with top ten finishes in all 3 of the one day races this season. What I found strange about those performances was a lack of explosiveness in the sprints, especially when beaten in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad Elite 10 days ago. There has long been conjecture that Sagan could be more of an overall contender in races than a winner of stages. He has a lot of ability. It is possible that we might see a different Sagan here but then again!
Tips
I’m going to back an American winner in Tejay van Garderen. Back him for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Betfair.
Place your bet here:
My outsider for the podium is Michal Kwiatkowski – back him with a 1/10 stake E/W at 21.0 with Ladbrokes (E/W 1/4 of the odds for top 3).
Place your bet here:
