The semi-finals begin at the Tour Championship on Wednesday and they do so when the world number one takes on the man who wasn’t even supposed to be in the tournament when Judd Trump faces Stephen Maguire inside the Marshall Arena in Milton Keynes.
Maguire laid a right marker down in his quarter final victory, producing one of the best performances ever seen, while Trump laboured to his last eight win. These two never take a backward step so we should be in for quite some contest.
The Format
There are only seven matches in this tournament with the quarter finals and semi-finals being played over two sessions of action and the best-of-17 frames. The final was due to be the only match of the season outside of the World Championship to be the best-of-25 frames with the winner being crowned over three sessions, however the social distancing and health measures that are in place mean that the final on Friday will just be the best of 19 frames.
Judd Trump
There wasn’t a whole lot that was convincing about the performance of Judd Trump in the first round, and when you add that to the indifferent displays he showed in the Championship League earlier in the month there could be a cause for concern. You would expect him to get stronger with every match but he might need to play a lot better here than he did when overcoming John Higgins in the first round of the event.
To be fair to Trump, it can be hard to play at your best when it is blatantly clear the opponent is struggling so if he is asked to play better by the man in the other seat, it is not automatic that he won’t be able to. Trump is playing for something other than a place in the final here as a win in this match would pretty much sew up the Coral Series and send him into the World Championship next month another £100k richer regardless of what would happen on Friday.
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Stephen Maguire
You should always beware of the man playing with the house money and we saw exactly why on Saturday when Stephen Maguire opened up this tournament in outstanding style, beating Neil Robertson 9-5 with six centuries in the process. We’ve already seen a late entrant into an exclusive tournament make the final this season when Ali Carter did it at The Masters, and Maguire will be out to emulate him in this contest.
Based on that performance against Robertson at the weekend you would say Maguire has every chance of coming through this match, but it is the hardest thing in sport to back up an outstanding performance with another one. The good thing for Maguire is he has had five days since then to come down and build himself back up again. Clearly conditions suit Maguire and we know he can handle the pressure. He should be in a position to launch a really strong tilt at this.
Head to Head
These two are no strangers to each other having battled it out on 22 previous occasions. Maguire led in the early stages winning seven of the first 11 meetings but he has only prevailed in one of the next 11 and now Trump heads the head to head 14-8. He is safely ahead in the frame margin too, leading 101-76 on that front. Trump has won the last four meetings between the two and is 3-1 ahead in semi-finals. Their last semi-final came at the Players Championship earlier in the season. Trump won 6-5 in what was one of the best matches of the campaign so far. If this is half as good as that we’ll be treated to something very good.
Betting
I don’t expect Stephen Maguire to play quite as well in this match as he did in the win over Neil Robertson, although there is always every chance in what is effectively a glorified practice session without the pressure and scrutiny of crowds. A player as talented as Maguire could continue to relish the situation. However, whether he plays like he did or he is just below it, the 3.5 frames he is getting in this match looks a bit of a gift.
If Trump was firing on all cylinders then maybe there would be a bit of a risk in that or the line wouldn’t look quite as appetising. However we’ve seen him in the Championship League and in the opening round of this and he has looked in first gear throughout. It might actually benefit Maguire if Trump plays well here as he’ll know what he needs to do but either way I just don’t see Maguire not winning six frames here. The Scot took Trump the distance in Southport earlier in the season and is clearly playing well enough to do that again here.
Tips
Back S.Maguire (+3.5 frames) to beat J.Trump for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Betway
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