The second quarter final of the Tour Championship takes place across two sessions of play inside the Bonus Arena in Hull on Tuesday when the fourth and fifth seeds meet as Ali Carter goes up against Kyren Wilson.
The winner of this one will go into the semi-final on Friday night and will be two wins away from a bumper windfall and confidence boost to head into the World Championship. Both men have won tournaments this season so we should be in for a great match.
Ali Carter
I would imagine this will be a bigger match for Ali Carter because this is the first time he has made it through to the Tour Championship. That in itself tells us just how much improvement he has made this season. Already in this campaign he has got back in the winners’ circle in the German Masters and followed that up with a run to the final of the Players Championship, but more importantly he has secured his top 16 ranking heading into the World Championship which means he doesn’t have to go through the agony of the qualifiers again.
Carter also followed those runs up with another semi-final in the WST Classic last week so he is very much in a rich vein of form as he looks to take advantage of his debut in this competition. If there is a concern for Carter it would be that in recent seasons he hasn’t played too many matches over this distance. He hasn’t qualified for the World Championship since 2019 so he has only played five double session matches in coming up to four years.
Kyren Wilson
While this whole occasion will be bigger for Carter than for Kyren Wilson, this is still an important match for ‘The Warrior’. He has played in this tournament twice in the past but he is yet to win a match in it and that is something he’ll be keen to get off his back. A win here will open up a chance to pick up a second ranking title of the season over the weekend after he took down the European Masters right at the beginning of the campaign.
If you look strictly at the results that Wilson has had recently, particularly in 2023, they don’t look much but we have seen in his exploits at the World Championship and with his pretty solid record in finals that the longer the format the better he plays. If that prophecy holds up here then he is entitled to feel very hard to beat. Wilson is used to playing in one-table setups like this in recent times so we might expect him to feel more comfortable early doors.
Special Offer
Sign up for a Boylesports account and bet £10 to get up to £20 in free bets! Perfect offer for this tournament! Click the image below for this great offer! New accounts only. 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
Head-to-head
These two men have met on four previous occasions and they are locked at two wins each from those battles. It is Carter who holds a slight lead in the frame count at 13 to 11 so he has had the more comfortable wins when he has come out on top. Their most recent battle was at the European Masters earlier this season when Wilson edged out Carter in a deciding frame in the semi-final. Wilson has won their last two meetings after Carter had initially won the first two matches, although one of those was only a best of three in the Pro Series. This will be the first time they have met over more than one session.
Betting
I think Kyren Wilson will win this match but he’s a little on the short side to do it. He is my outright bet though so I don’t need to back him again in any case but one area where I do like a line on Wilson is his centuries line which is at 1.5 which feels a little low for a best of 19 frame match. While I think he’ll win the match he technically doesn’t need to come out on top to be able to cover this line. He could win nine frames and only need a century in 22% of them to cover this total.
Wilson has made 34 centuries this season, a number which has only been better by six players on tour. Wilson hasn’t made this tournament for the past two years but in the two first round matches he has played at the World Championship over this distance he covered this line on both occasions. He is a savage scorer when he gets going and this one table setup and an event of this magnitude should be where he brings his best snooker out. I’ll take him to cover the 1.5 ton line.
Tips
Back K.Wilson – Over 1.5 centuries for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2023
