The Final Series begins on the European Tour this week with the first of three events in as many weeks to determine the overall Race to Dubai champion getting underway. It does so with the Turkish Airlines Open before heading to South Africa and Dubai in the next fortnight.
This tournament was due to be headlined by Tiger Woods but he pulled out a couple of weeks ago and with security issues in the country putting a number of the star players eligible to compete off we’re left with a slightly lower key, but no less competitive, field.
Recent Winners
2015 – Victor Dubuisson
2014 – Brooks Koepka
2013 – Victor Dubuisson
The Course
We’ve moved courses this year with the Montgomerie Maxx Royal no longer taking hosting duties. Instead the tournament will be held on the Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort in Antalya, a very popular spot for tourists.
The course will play as a par 71 this week and it will measure 7,159 yards so with the heat and dry air it isn’t especially long by today’s standards. The consensus is that the rough is consistent and penal this week so those driving the ball straight are likely to succeed especially given the treelined element to the course. The greens are described as large and undulating with each having many plateaus so accurate irons will also be the order of the day.
The 16th hole is the iconic hole on the course with the tee box sat on the roof of a villa which the players have to drive down from. Expect that hole to get plenty of attention this week.
The Field
The 78 man field consists of The Masters champion along with his two Ryder Cup teammates Andy Sullivan and Lee Westwood. They will all be looking for a great start to the Final Series, as will Bernd Wiesberger and Tyrell Hatton who have both been in good form of late.
Portugal Masters champion Padraig Harrington has swerved the PGA Tour event in search of the big prizes on offer this week while fellow major champion Paul Lawrie is also in the field. Beef Johnston, the defending champion Victor Dubuisson and Nicolas Colsaerts are fans favourites teeing it up.
Market Leaders
Bernd Wiesberger heads the betting this week off the back of a solid run of form. He is a 12/1 chance with the only question mark over him at that price being the lack of times he wins. It would be surprising if he isn’t in the mix though.
Andy Sullivan threw the kitchen sink at Padraig Harrington in Portugal two weeks ago but could only come second. He is 14/1 to go one better this week and he is very popular, understandably so. He is a little short for me but that is the only thing to put me off.
The third favourite is Tyrell Hatton who will be looking for a second win in as many months after winning the Dunhill Links Championship last month. He has been up and down since then understandably and although he won that tournament he looks a touch short at 18/1 in this company.
Anirban Lahiri slots in as the fourth favourite at 22/1 but anyone taking him will be taking a leap of faith that he has recovered from blowing a four shot 54 hole lead on the PGA Tour last time out. I can’t back him with that in mind.
Lee Westwood, Ben An, Alex Levy, Tommy Fleetwood and Soren Kjeldsen are all priced between 25/1 and 28/1 and it is 33/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Two main bets for me this week and I’m back to Tommy Fleetwood for the first of them. Fleetwood is striking the ball beautifully at the minute and it is only a matter of time before that tee to green quality gets him back in the winning enclosure again. Fleetwood ran hot around a similar track at The Grove recently and has been double digits under par in his last six tournaments. At 28/1 he’s definitely due.
When tee to green monsters are needed then Soren Kjeldsen is never far from my radar and I’m prepared to back him this week. We know he rarely misses a fairway and if he can be true with his irons like he so often is then he should be able to score well around here. Kjeldsen was putting nicely when I saw him at The Grove three weeks ago and another solid putting display should have him right there.
Outsiders
I’m going to take three outsiders at decent prices, all of whom are very proficient from tee to green and who have form in the book on treelined courses which might well be significant.
The first of those is Thomas Aiken who actually could be a lot shorter than he is. He is one of the straight off the tee on the tour and nobody has hit more greens in regulation than him this season and with these conditions behind similar to South Africa in terms of climate and atmosphere I’m expecting Aiken to go well. If the putter gets hot he can emulate and potentially better the fourth placed finish he recorded at Wentworth.
Talking of Wentworth one man who boasts a very solid record around there is Alejandro Canizares and with the number of greens he hits in the right number that isn’t hard to see why either. He has two top 10s there in the last four years and recently finished in the top 10 in the KLM Open, a layout similar to this one, and the Italian Open. I’m expecting the Spaniard to be competitive again here.
Finally I’m taking one of my old favourites in Fabrizio Zanotti. Zanotti chased home Matt Fitzpatrick on a very similar course at Woburn last year and with a bit of sun on his back I fancy another good run here. The Paraguayan was seventh at Wentworth this year so treelined courses seem to suit him and the fact he is the leader in fairways hit from those teeing it up this week has to be a positive. At 66/1 he should go well too.
Tips
Back T.Fleetwood to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back S.Kjeldsen to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back T.Aiken to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Canizares to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back F.Zanotti to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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