After what was a relatively dull stage in the GC battle on Sunday, Tour de France Stage 16 sees the riders tackle a flatter days racing. Monday’s stage is the final one before the second rest day on Tuesday.
Stage 16 – The Profile
The route for sta
ge 16 looks like a nailed on bunch sprint. As the profile shows there is no serious climbing. The roads tend to follow the valley sections. The stage is over 200 kms once more.
The day starts in Moirans-en-Montagne with a level first 40kms or so. The racing will be fast as a break group forms. I would suspect that the break won’t get too far in front. I say that not because the sprinters teams will control the race because I don’t think they will.
I see the likes of Tinkoff controlling the peloton as this is perfect end for Peter Sagan. The finale to the stage in Berne features a short steep climb that will favour the punchers.
The final climb is 600 metres in length at 6.6%. This is reminiscent of some of the Belgian One Day Classic finales from earlier in the season. The profile for that final km show that the riders have short downhill that leads into the climb. The pace will be red-hot as riders jockey for positions in the front 10-15.
Some of the sprinters will like their chances of getting a stage win but I’m not sure they can contend on such a steep climb.
Will we finally get a 2016 stage win from one of the three cycling giants – France, Spain and Italy.
Who will burn off their rivals in Berne?
The betting market for stage 16 looks eerily similar to some of the One Day races from early in the 2016 season.
Favourite is Peter Sagan of Tinkoff. I think this is justified by the quality of his racing thus far. The final climb will not be an issue for him and he is easily the man to beat. You can back Sagan at a price in the 6.0-8.0 range and I will be all over this. At worst he will finish in the top 3 places.
The other sprinters that have won stages in this years race – Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) and Marcel Kittel (Etixx Quickstep) are expected to struggle on this climb. This is not generally the sort of stage they have won in the past. The odds for both are in the 22.0-25.0 range and I would have a tough time backing either. In fact each of their teams have a better contender for stage 16 victory.
Second favourite is Alexander Kristoff (Katusha). Kristoff has a lean time of it in the 2016 TDF and I don’t see that changing on Monday. He doesn’t seem to be in top shape and I would be hugely surprised if that changes on Stage 16.
Other riders I like are Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data), Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) and Julian Alaphilippe (Etixx Quickstep). The finale suits all three riders. They can all get up the short steep climbs with aplomb. You can back EBH and GVA at 19.0 and Alaphilippe at 34.0. I’m not sure they can beat Sagan but they can podium. Of the three Alaphilippe has the most interest. He was unlucky to not win stage 15. A late crash whilst leading likely cost him the victory. He finished 2nd to Peter Sagan on an earlier stage in the 2016 TDF with a similar run in to the line. A price of 34.0 is a great EW option.
One other rider that has to be considered here is Alejandro Valverde (Movistar). Valverde is the master of this sort of terrain in one day races. Movistar have yet to win a stage in the 2016 race and will be looking to put that right. Valverde is way overpriced at 81.0. It would help if the final climb was double this length but Valverde could make a nice return for a small EW bet.
I would understand if you wished to place a small bet on the German pair Andre Griepel (Lotto-Soudal) or Jon Degenkolb (Giant). Griepel won stages with similar profiles in the Giro d’Italia in May. His form has been suspect here but his price of 34.0 is a little generous by the bookies. Degenkolb’s season has been ruined as he recovers from on off-season training injury. He finally looked to have found some proper form on stage 14. He can be backed at 19.0 but I would be surprised to see him in the top 3.
Tour de France Stage 16 – Tips
WON – Back Peter Sagan to win stage 16 with a 2.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 6.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Julian Alaphilippe to win stage 16 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 26.00 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
