The riders returned from the rest day for a frantic stage 17 where Ilnur Zakarin jumped the field on the final climb and powered his way to victory while further down the mountain Chris Froome and Richie Porte put time into their rivals in the GC ahead of Thursday’s Mountain Time Trial which makes up stage 18.
Stage 18 – The Profile
This is the second Individual Time Trial after the one on Stage 13 but it is much different to that one. Although this one is only 17km in length it is predominantly all uphill with a steep climb right through the middle of it so we’re expecting the best riders to profit from the terrain and fight it out against the clock come the finish.
This is a crucial stage in the GC battle, maybe not for Chris Froome who surely only has to make it to Paris without crashing to win le Tour, but certainly for those eyeing up the podium. Although this is only a 17km jaunt if you pace it incorrectly major time gaps can ensue and with only two more competitive stages left any time gaps here could be crucial.
The Favourites
Chris Froome goes into the stage as the favourite to win although he is odds on across the board. He has proven to be the best climber in the race and looks to have the legs on everyone as he showed in the Pyrenees and at times on Wednesday’s stage. The only question is whether he will take risks with two huge stages left to come in the Alps.
Tom Dumoulin won the first time trial by over a minute, his second stage win of the tour but this one is an altogether different proposition with the heavy climbs involved. There are flat spots that the big Dutchman can pick up time on but the better climbers are likely to gobble up the hilly parts of the course much better than he will.
Richie Porte has been the second best climber in the field and he is good in uphill time trials. He has all the motivation he needs having closed the gap on some of his podium rivals on Wednesday. If he can take a few more seconds out of them here then he will be well placed for a top three finish come Paris on Sunday.
To the surprise of most people Adam Yates held on well on Wednesday which gives people the thought he could contend here. He has been climbing very well in the tour so far and that gives him an advantage on most but how much he has left in the legs is a big concern.
The fears that Nairo Quintana didn’t have the legs to win the tour were confirmed on Wednesday when he disappeared right out of trace and another bad stage here could leave his podium hopes in tatters. Quintana won’t win the tour, he won’t win this stage either and even at 40/1 has to be opposed.
The Climbers
Ilnur Zakarin is proving himself to be one of the best climbers in the world at the minute but he was visibly tired at the line on Wednesday so he is unlikely to be in a position to be competitive here.
Alejandro Valverde might now get the chance to race for himself after Quintana’s demise and the Spaniard should be able to make some time up on this course but whether that is enough to contend remains to be seen.
Bauke Mollema had an excellent first two weeks of the tour but he was found out on Wednesday. Sometimes riders can break down after the rest day but find themselves again and if he can find the form of the first two weeks he is entitled to be in the mix here.
Movistar’s best hope of salvaging something from this race now lies in the team competition where they currently lead and that means there is unlikely to be any letting up from Ion Izagirre or Nelson Oliviera. The latter was third in the first time trial in this tour so he has previous which could be advantageous.
Betting
All things being equal it is hard to see past Chris Froome in this stage but this is a time trial and things aren’t always equal in them and at the prices on offer we can’t possibly justify a bet even though he is the most likely winner.
I don’t think Tom Dumoulin is going to get over the bumps as well as some others in the field and so I’m reluctant to take him which makes my main bet on Richie Porte. Porte has been the second best climber in the race and that will have an impression on this stage. He has a good record in these short, sharp punchy trials uphill and is fully motivated to put in a fast time.
Whatever happens in this stage I can’t see three people beating Porte so he looks an each way bet to nothing but if he can maintain flat out speed the longest he could well pip Froome to the win especially if the Brit saves a little bit for the last two mountain stages.
With this being a time trial though we can’t go in one handed so we’re going to have one of the Movistar boys on our side as well. I’m going to rule Alejandro Valverde out as he might want to keep hold of something for the next two stages.
Nelson Oliviera was third in the earlier time trial but I’m with Ion Izagirre here. The Spaniard is a wonderful climber who should be able to gobble these 17km up if he has something left in his legs and with this the realistic chance of him being competitive for the remainder of the race I’m expecting to see something from him. At 44/1 he’s worth covering to see if he can jump the field.
Tips
Back R.Porte to win Stage 18 (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back I.Izagirre to win Stage 18 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 45.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
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