The 2016 Critérium du Dauphiné starts on Sunday 5th June and runs until the following Sunday (12th June). The results of this race tend to give a good indication of which riders are in the sort of form to challenge for the Tour de France race victory in July.
The Course
This years race starts with a short prologue of 3.9kms in Les Gets. Sounds like a stage for the strong men right? Well it is straight up a mountain so expect the riders who are strong time trialists that can climb to feature – in effect the General Classification riders!
Stage 1 is 186kms from Cluses to Saint-Vulbas and features hilly terrain for the first half of the stage. The second half is fairly flat so expect a sprint finish.
Stage 2 is 167.5kms from Crêches-sur-Saône to Chalmazel-Jeansagnière. It starts in a similar fashion to stage 1 but the end of the stage features a category 2 climb. Expect this to be contested by the top climbers.
Stage 3 starts in Boën-sur-Lignon and finishes 182kms later in Tournon-sur-Rhône. The stage is bumpy more than hilly but the category 2 climb 20kms from the finish will diminish the size of the peloton. Expect a stage winner who can sprint from a smaller group.
The 4th stage is the sprinters final chance at getting a win. The stage is 172kms from Tain-l’Hermitage to Belley and is the flattest of the race. Don;t expect major changes in the GC.
Stages 5 through 7 are where the race will be won. The stages all take place in the mountains. Stage 5 is 140kms of ups and downs, starting in La Ravoire and ending in Vaujany after 7 categorised climbs including a category 1. The stage ends on a category 2 climb into Vaujany. The GC riders will contest the finish.
Stage 6 takes the riders from La Rochette to Méribel in the toughest stage of the race. It features 5 climbs, 1 category 2, 3 category 1’s and an off classification HC climb smack bang in the middle of the stage. The finish is at the top of a category 1 climb and I expect only 1-2 riders to be in contention for the stage win.
The final road stage from Le-Pont-de-Claix to Superdévoluy features climbing all day but only 2 category 1’s – so easier than stage 6 but still a tricky one for the GC riders to navigate.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of Critérium du Dauphiné were:
- 2011 – Bradley Wiggins (GBR) – Team Sky
- 2012 – Bradley Wiggins (GBR) – Team Sky
- 2013 – Chris Froome (GBR) – Team Sky
- 2014 – Andrew Talansky (USA) – Garmin-Sharp
- 2015 – Chris Froome (GBR) – Team Sky
Three of the last five winner of this race (Wiggins in 2012, Froome in 2013 & 2015) have gone on to win the Tour de France that year.
There have been some surprise winners of the race –Janez Brajkovič in 2010 and to a lesser extent Talansky in 2014 spring to mind.
The Contenders
Two of the big 4 feature – Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Unsurprisingly, they dominate the betting market with Froome favourite and Contador second favourite. I would say that is fair given their recent history and performance in this type of race.
Froome has a super strong team featuring Giro d’Italia big hope Mikel Landa, Wout Poels and Sergio Henao. They should be the dominant team in the race particularly on stages 5-7. What I like about them in this race is that they have not one but two back-up plans in Landa and Poels. The latter has probably been Team Sky’s best rider this season. Froome disappointed in the Tour de Romandie. A mechanical wiped out his overall chances early in the race but he rebounded the following day to win the toughest mountain stage. If he is to win a third Tour De France he has to go well here.
Contador has better race form than Froome. He finished 2nd in Paris-Nice and won the Tour of the Basque Country including the ITT on stage 6. The terrain here suits him but he has yet to win this race. I don’t feel his team is quite as strong in the mountains – it could do with having Rafal Majka in it but he is recovering from the Giro.
The ‘Next Great French Hope’ is Thibaut Pinot of FDJ. After a bit of a meltdown in the Grand Tours last year he has returned in 2016 as a much stronger rider. He impressively won the Criterium International and finished 2nd in the Tour de Romandie behind Nairo Quintana. In both races he won mountain ITT’s and he is a great shout to win the opening prologue. He is third favourite and at 8.00 is a super EW bet. I really think he has the chance to win a Grand Tour in the future – maybe not this year.
I really cannot see a rider other than these three winning the race.
Team Sky might alter plans if Froome doesn’t have the form and either Poels or Landa have the qualities to win the race but I feel they are here first off as support to Froome. In fact Landa is 4th favourite at 9.00 – Poels is available at 67.00.
Of the rest Fabio Aru of Astana has changed focus from the Giro to the TdF and is riding here to test his form against his main rivals for the TdF. He is 5th favourite prior to the race and I feel that is probably right. He could be am EW shout at 13.00.
Richie Porte has ridden in the past here as number two rider at Team Sky in support of Froome. His form is solid with a 3rd in Paris-Nice and 4th at the Volta-a-Catalunya but I think he might drop some time on the brute that is stage 6 on at least one or two of the riders mentioned above.
Dan Martin and Julian Alaphilippe lead a strong Etixx team. They are both excellent riders and will feature on stage 5 and 7 as the terrain suits their punchier climbing styles. I think both will struggle on stage 6 on the steeper longer climbs that feature.
Critérium du Dauphiné Tips
WON – Back Chris Froome to win the Critérium du Dauphiné with a 2.0/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddy Power.
Back Thibaut Pinot to win the Critérium du Dauphiné with a 1.0/10 stake EW at 8.00 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
