My second Giro d’Italia 2017 betting preview contains my thoughts on the Sprint (Points), Mountain (KOTM) and Youth Classifications. I thought it was a good idea to separate these from the Maglia Rosa preview which you can read here:
Giro d’Italia – Maglia Rosa Betting Preview
Giro d’Italia 2017 – The Stages
The table below shows a breakdown of the 21 stages. Like my Pink Jersey preview I have shown the stages in a table form as a reference point for my classification previews below.
[supsystic-tables id=’32’]
Giro d’Italia 2017 – Sprinters Jersey (Purple Jersey)
The 2017 race contains what can only be called a depleted group of sprinters. There are three reasons for this:
- Injuries to the likes of Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data);
- Sprinters targeting the Tour de France – Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors);
- The 2017 route which favours the climbers and has scared away a number of sprinters.
This market is incredibly hard to because of the 2017 course. There are only 6 stages that the sprinters can seriously contest this year – the last of those being stage 13. I can see the best sprinters in the race pulling out after stage 13. They will have little to fight for in the next 7 stages except pain and suffering in the mountains.
There will be three of the elite sprinters racing here. I like Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors), Andre Greipel (Lotto-Spudal) and Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) to share the 6 or 7 sprint stages between them. Unsurprisingly, they are towards the top of the betting market for the sprint competition. Gaviria (favourite at 1.83), Greipel (3rd favourite at 8.0) and Ewan (5th favourite at 15.0). The thing is I really would be ssuprised if they complete the Giro. Gaviria is the only one who ‘might‘ finish the Giro as he is not heading to the TDF. I cannot get excited with his odds which require a big stake to make a decent return. Sprints are dangerous affairs and one incident and Gaviria could be out of the race.
Grio d’Italia 30,000 Euro Fantasy Cycling Game
Ewan and Greipel might both feature in the TDF in July. They won’t want to race the final 7 hilly/mountain stages here as that will deplete resources for later races. I would be stunned if they make it past the final rest day. Instead I will look elsewhere in this market.
Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek Segafredo) won the sprint classification in the 2016 Giro d’Italia. Amazingly, he won the Purple Jersey without winning a stage in the race. How you ask? Well the sprinters that won stages – Andre Griepel (3 wins) and Marcel Kittel (2 wins) – pulled out of the race as the terrain moved into the mountains. Nizzolo was able to win the competition as once a rider retires from the race he loses his points in the classification. Nizzolo won because he was able to get a number of top ten finishes, pick up bonus sprint points and because he finished the race. I could easily see a repeat in 2017 and odds of 6.0 offer some EW value. He might be the best chance for an Italian to win a jersey in the 100th Giro.
Sacha Modolo (UAE Team Emirates) won two Giro stages in 2015 and showed some recent form with two stage wins at the Tour of Croatia. I don’t see him as a threat to win stages from the big three but like Nizzolo I think he gets to stage 21 in Milan and will accumulate enough points to be a threat for the red jersey win. Odds around 5.0 are win only.
Sam Bennett (Bora Hansgrohe) is the only other sprinter I like in this classification. For once Bennett will be the number one sprinter on the team as Peter Sagan targets the TDF instead. Bennett won a sprint stage at this years Paris-Nice and could be the under the radar selection in this category – odds of 15.0 look interesting for an EW bet.
Giro d’Italia 2017 – Climbers Jersey (Blue Jersey) – KOTM
It is common for the KOTM jersey winner in recent Grand Tours to be a rider well down on General Classification. This years Giro could possibly see the race winner also winning the KOTM. As the final week is all mountains the GC riders will have to be at the front of the race throughout. That means the GC riders will close down the points gap on the leader in that final week and could make this an interesting battle. I will look at the non-GC riders for my tips however.
In the outsiders group I would look at a number of riders:
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) won the mountains jersey in the 2015 & 2016 Vuelta a Espana. He started the Giro in 2016 but retired on stage 5 before the mountains stages really started. The team do not have a GC rider and will be looking for stage wins and a jersey from the race. Fraile knows how to win the mountains classification in a Grand Tour and I like his chances here at 7.50.
I think the Canondale Drapac team could have a number of riders attempt to win this classification. From the team I expect three to potentially target this jersey. Pierre Rolland has become a bit of a chancer as he has aged. He was at one time a serious Grand Tour threat (in the eyes of the French media). Now he is a bit of a break specialist on mountain stages (although with very wins). He can be backed at 8.0 but I prefer two team-mates.
Simon Clarke is a true break specialist. He is very aggressive and he is the type of rider who climbs well enough against the non-GC riders to be a threat in this classification before the racing gets serious in the third week. Odds of 201.0 lend themselves to a small EW bet. Hugh Carthy is a young rider with a big future as a climber. His first Grand Tour (2016 Vuelta) was low-key and he finished 125th. That was a gentle introduction to three-week racing for Carthy. He is expected to be a little more prominent here as shown in his odds at 67.0. Again a small EW bet looks interesting. You could also look at Joe Dombrowski (23.0) and David Formolo (81.0) from this team BUT I think they are the two riders looking for a GC place rather than a Mountains Jersey win.
Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Astana) is an older rider with a Grand Tour mountains classification win in the past (2014 Vuelta). He is no threat on the GC and the team really doesn’t have a GC challenge in them this year so a jersey may be their target. My concern – his age. Can he keep up with the younger riders in the chase for points? I don’t think so will pass at 23.0.
His Astana team-mate Jose Goncalves could also be in the mix for this classification. He has won a week-long multi-stage race (Tour of Turkey in 2016) and has enough climbing ability to rack up the points in the first 12 stages of the race. Odds of 41.0 are more tempting.
Giulio Ciccone (Bardiani-CSF) is a rider I really like in this section. He rides for an Italian wildcard team and won mountain stage in last years Giro (stage 16). He won mountain jerseys in junior races and I think this is his big opportunity to breakthrough. I love his odds at 67.0 and think he will be a huge threat to Fraile.
Like I mentioned above – the GC riders could crash the party in the final 6 mountain stages and blow this classification apart. If you are inclined to back a GC rider the best options look like Quintana (8.0) and Kruijswijk (19.0).
Giro d’Italia 2017 – Young Rider – Maglia Bianca (White Jersey)
This is a WIN ONLY market.
Apart from the Maglia Rosa this is probably the easiest classification to predict. In the absence of a number of riders that would have qualified for this classification Adam Yates (Orica Scott) is the clear favourite. He is the best climber of the ‘youth’ riders by a decent margin. Yates also has Grand Tour success with 4th in last years TDF. His odds reflect his expected victory at 1.50. I think he will win easily but I’m not backing anyone at those odds.
The only rider who will be within 8 minutes of Yates come the end of the race will be Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors). Jungels is one for the future but he doesn’t climb well enough to win this jersey unless Yates fails to finish the race. I think 4.33 is a little short.
The rider with value in this classification is Davide Formolo (Canondale-Drapac). He climbs better than Jungels has a Grand Tour top ten finish to his name (9th in the 2016 Vuelta) and stage win (2015 Giro). Formolo is the teams Grand Tour contender of the future. He is solid in all aspects although he may lack the elite climbing ability to be a winner. I think he is Yates biggest threat here and 8.0 has value especially if Yates doesn’t finish the Giro.
Giro d’Italia 2017 – Tips
I’m backing the Italians!
Back Giacomo Nizzolo to win the Red Jersey with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
PLACED – Back Omar Fraile to win the KOTM Jersey with a 1.50/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365.
Bet on Giulio Ciccone to win the KOTM Jersey with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 67.00 with Bet365.
Back Davide Formolo to win the Young Riders Jersey with a 1.0/10 stake at 8.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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