Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 18 on Thursday sees the riders return to the high mountains. Three of the days climbs are peaked at over 2,000 metres above sea level. This one will be tough.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 18 – Stage Profile
The profile of stage 18 looks like a set of sharp teeth. The stage is much shorter than the two previous days racing at 137kms. It does however include 5 categorised climbs.
The day starts in Moena and ends in Val Gardena. The entire stage is a series of ups and downs. There are no flat sections at all.
Climb 1 is the category 1 Passo Pordoi (peaked at 26kms). The climb is 11.8kms in length at 6.7%. This quickly leads to climb 2 – Passo Valparola, a category 2 of 12.9kms at 6.5%. The Valparola is peaked at 57.2kms.
A rapid descent and its straight onto the second category 2 climb – the Passo Gardena (9.3kms at 6.9%). A long descent is punctuated by a short category 3 climb – Passo Di Pinei Panidersattel (4.2kms at 8% with a 15% section near the top). The riders then descent again for a further 15kms to the 123kms mark in the stage. From here the riders face the daunting Pandives climb to Val Gardena. The finale climb is a category 1 – 9.3kms in length. The climbs starts at 4.1% then ramps up at 3kms to 6% with the top 3kms above 9%.
This will be fast and furious with the GC teams gunning for the stage win. With three riders in close contention at the top of the GC the bonus seconds may decide the podium places.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 18 – Favourites
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) is second overall – about 30 seconds off the race lead. Stage 18 looks perfect for him to eliminate that gap and take the race lead. Watching closely on stage 16 he seemed to be just marking the other three riders that went with him on the climb. He knew he was gaining time on Dumoulin anyway and knows stages 18-20 have the terrain where he can dominate. Odds of 3.75 are fine for a win only.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida) won stage 16 annoying for my stage tips on the day. He looked to be close to top form and should do okay again here. I don’t think he can go with a classic Quintana attack however so you would be backing him for a 2nd or 3rd place on the stage. I think 6.50 is okay for the EW bet.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) looked really good once more in the mountains on stage 16. I wasn’t surprised he lost 34 seconds on the final descent given the horror crash he suffered in last years Giro. Stage 18 ends at the top of a mountain and Zakarin must be a solid EW choice for the podium. Odds of 17.0 are super for the EW bet.
Dominico Pozzivivo (AG2R La Mondiale) also went well on stage 16 finishing 4th. His legs were good and he was within touch at the peak of the final climb only to drop back on the descent. Again, he must be seen a stage threat on Thursday given his results on stage 16. If you could get 4 places odds of 26.0 represent some value.
Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) lost about 90 seconds taking his ‘poo’ break on stage 16. He then did an amazing job in losing only another 40-odd seconds on Nibali. We will never know how he would have coped at the front of the race on the final climb. I suspect he may have lost some time but probably no more than 30 seconds. I can see him being in touch on Thursday but expect him to lose his Maglia Rosa to Quintana. I really think he has a chance to finish in the top 3 on the stage – provided there are no toilet isues. The bookies have Dumoulin at 19.0 which is a fair price.
The other GC riders will be riding to maintain their places in the top 10-12. None of them have been able to match those mentioned above in the high mountains on a consistent basis.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 18 – Break Riders
This group will once more include the KOTM challengers as there are lots of points to garner:
Mikel Landa (Team Sky) – the KOTM classification leader was oh so close to winning stage 16. He should win the jersey if he goes in a couple of breaks in the remaining three mountain stages. He is stage favourite at 2.50 which I don’t agree with. The GC battle will be too intense for Landa to stick with on the final climb;
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) was in the break on stage 17 in the attempt to gather some KOTM points. He has to go again on stage 18 because the GC riders will hoover up the points on the final climb of the day. Odds of 81.0 are good odds but there is no chance he finishes in the top 10;
Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) rested on stage 17 after being in the break the day before. He looks primed to try again for the stage win and will take any KOTM points he can gain. Like Fraile odds are at 81.0 = no chance of a return;
Pierre Rolland (Canondale-Drapac) won stage 17 after multiple attempts to win from the break. Rolland deserves to rest on stage 18!
I also anticipate the GC teams sending at least one rider up the road to be used as a bridge later in the stage. I won’t include their names because they won’t be a threat for the stage win.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 18 – Tips
Back Nairo Quintana to win stage 18 with a 2.5/10 stake at 3.75 with Bet365.
Bet on Ilnur Zakarin to win stage 18 with a 1.0/10 stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Bet 365.
Back Tom Dumoulin to win stage 18 with a 0.75/10 stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 19.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
